We have a series beginning on Monday that could be a precursor for a playoff matchup. The NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers face the NL East-leading Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park.
The Phillies are coming off a series win, but a loss on Sunday Night Baseball in extra innings against the Cardinals, while the Brewers bullied the lowly White Sox over the weekend.
With a big series upcoming, it’s time to cook up another same game parlay to try bringing home a sizable profit.
Here's my Brewers vs Phillies same game parlay for Monday night.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Brewers vs Phillies MLB Same Game Parlay
- Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Total Bases
- Joey Ortiz Over 0.5 Total Bases
- Phillies ML
Parlay Odds: +400 (BetMGM)
Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Total Bases
I had to remove my metaphorical glasses to confirm that Kyle Schwarber is 32-for-112 in his last 30 games, good for a .286 average.
Schwarber can hit. That's nothing new, but hitting for a consistently high average has never been his forte, so it’s a bit surprising.
Coupling Schwarber's elite vision and power combination makes him a dangerous hitter.
Surprisingly, right-handed pitchers have given Schwarber a tough time — .175 average compared to .333 against lefties. Schwarber's slugging percentage is also far worse against righties — .517 against left-handers and .341 against righties.
I'm betting against the splits here as I’ll add Schwarber over 1.5 total bases against Brewers starter Bryse Wilson. It’s worth noting: Schwarber could face Jared Koenig in his first at-bat since the Brewers removed Wilson as a projected starter, hinting at an opener for the game.
You can grab Schwarber at -115 odds, which feels pretty good for a player who’s capable of going over the total on one swing.
Joey Ortiz Over 0.5 Total Bases
When a team trades an All-Star, Cy Young-caliber pitcher, getting legitimate major league starting players as part of the return is how to make it worthwhile.
The Brewers have plenty of star power in the lineup, but Joey Ortiz has been nothing short of terrific. It's time to notice how special the 25-year-old rookie appears to be.
The Brewers received infielder Ortiz — along with DL Hall — for Corbin Burnes, and Ortiz has developed into an irreplaceable piece of the Brewers' lineup. Ortiz boasts a 151 wRC+ with strong future indicators — he's in the 90th percentile or better in chase, walk, whiff and K%, according to Statcast.
He puts the ball in play, meaning he'll have plenty of chances to get multiple hits or an extra-base hit to cash the over on his total bases prop. 19 of Ortiz's 50 hits this year went for extra bases.
At the same time, he isn't a premier power hitter; his ability to hit an occasional homer and his strong gap-to-gap power led to 12 doubles and a pair of triples.
Ortiz also went over 0.5 total bases in his past five games and is eighth in baseball since May 15 in wRC+.
Phillies ML
The Phillies have lost back-to-back games only three times this year, and I don't see a fourth coming on Monday.
I'm not a fan of the Brewers' grouping of Koenig and Wilson because there's almost nobody in baseball due for harder regression than Wilson. In 14 appearances and seven stars, Wilson owns a 3.19 ERA with an ugly 5.00 FIP and 4.63 xFIP.
I want to be on the opposite side of Wilson when the wheels fall off.
Zack Wheeler is one of the best pitchers in baseball, giving the Phillies a major advantage in this matchup. The 34-year-old starter boasts a 2.32 ERA with a 2.78 FIP and a 10.38 K/9 — the second-highest marker of his career.
I have deeper concerns about the Phillies' bullpen since they don’t have a true closer. It’s Jeff Hoffman, Jose Alvarado or Gregory Soto in most games, and that could haunt them in the postseason. But it shouldn’t play a huge role if Wheeler does his job.
