Cardinals vs. Pirates Odds, Pick
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+104 | 8.5 +100o / -122u | +1.5 -196 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-122 | 8.5 +100o / -122u | -1.5 -162 |
Beyond the first-place Brewers, the NL Central is a total logjam. We’ll see if the second-place Cardinals can create separation from the rest of the pack or if the Pirates can inch closer in Tuesday night's series opener at PNC Park.
Two serviceable starters take the hill on Tuesday in Kyle Gibson (3.70 ERA) for the Cardinals and Mitch Keller (3.20 ERA) for the Pirates.
Let's get into my MLB betting preview for this NL Central clash and Cardinals vs Pirates pick.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals find themselves in the thick of the NL Wild Card race at 43-40; they have possession of the third NL wild-card spot by 1 1/2 games over the Mets. Is that where Cardinals fans want to be? Surely not, but they’ve made vast strides in the past month to get in the playoff discussion.
Kyle Gibson is usually reliable for five or six innings of two- or three-run ball. That’ll keep the Cardinals competitive in just about every game anytime he's on the mound.
The 36-year-old righty boasts a 3.70 ERA and 4.14 FIP. When Gibson is good, his strong 49% ground-ball rate plays a huge factor. He wants to get ground balls on his sinker — or whiffs on his sweeper. That's the main plan of attack for Gibson, but it all starts with finding the zone.
We’ll see if Gibson regains form after a strange two weeks. He was scratched from his start on June 19 just after his pregame bullpen due to back tightness, and returned with four runs in four innings against the Braves last week. He walked a season-high five batters. That’s why throwing strikes is monumental for Gibson.
Being a better hitting team than the Pirates isn’t saying much — especially in the Cardinals' case since their 96 wRC+ ranks 17th in MLB and their 97 wRC+ in June ranked 18th. Mediocre no matter how you slice it.
Similar to the Pirates' struggles, the Cardinals only have three regular starters with a wRC+ above 100 in the past month — Brendan Donovan (134), Alec Burleson (131) and Nolan Arenado (103) round out the list.
Leadoff batter Masyn Winn is hitting just .255 (92 wRC+) with a 26% strikeout rate in June that drained the potency of the Cardinals offense. When Winn is right, he gets on base, and creates RBI chances for Donovan, Burleson and Arenado.
Instead, Winn’s struggles bring them up with empty bases. They need Winn to get on base for the offense to get in gear.
Pittsburgh Pirates
After a disappointing extra-innings loss on Skenes day, the Pirates took their anger out on the Braves in Sunday’s win. At 40-43, the Pirates will look to push the Cardinals off their playoff track and swap spots.
It’s Mitch Keller’s turn in the rotation and he’ll face a pretty hot Cardinals lineup. Keller is enjoying his best full year in the big leagues, posting a 3.20 ERA and 3.46 FIP over 98 1/3 innings.
One of the key ingredients to Keller’s breakout year is leaving runners aboard the the tune of a 77% LOB rate. Last year, Keller left 71% of runners on base, so that’s an integral factor to a lower ERA.
Is it sustainable? That’s another question. Keller has allowed 3+ runs in two of his past three outings — but he could get back on track here if he limits baserunners.
It’s been a total disaster this year on the offensive end for the Pirates. They are unequivocally one of MLB’s worst hitting teams with a 86 wRC+ — they ranked bottom three in wRC+ during June.
Bryan Reynolds, like he has much of the year, carries the offensive weight. He led the Pirates with a 177 wRC+ in June against righties, while Rowdy Tellez (160) and ONeil Cruz (102) have helped ease the stress on Reynolds.
It’s been live or die by that trio for over a month. For instance, Cruz and Tellez homering in Sunday’s win over the Braves was a live situation. The previous two days? Well, that was the dying part.
Cardinals vs. Pirates
Betting Pick & Prediction
I’ve laid out the struggles both offenses face, so my best bet being on the under shouldn’t be a real surprise. I can’t see either team scoring enough to push the total over given how solid the pitching matchup is.
My only drawback on taking the under is the Pirates bullpen. They rank bottom four in bullpen ERA. However, ranking 16th in FIP eases some of my nerves, and Keller should provide some length.
The Cardinals bullpen is phenomenal, buoyed by the big three of JoJo Romero, Andrew Kittredge and Ryan Helsley. The first two are castoffs from other teams, and the other is a homegrown stud closer. Let’s hope Helsley can shut the door for the under if called upon.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
