Cubs vs Cardinals Odds, Pick
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-110 | 9 +100o / -122u | +1.5 -196 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-106 | 9 +100o / -122u | -1.5 +162 |
The Chicago Cubs had a much-needed offensive breakthrough on Wednesday afternoon in Cincinnati and will look to keep building off that on Thursday in the first of four games against the Cardinals.
Chicago may be on the outside looking in as it pertains to the playoffs, but it retained its core at the trade deadline and could easily vault back into the race with a big showing against the Cardinals. The Cubs currently sit five games back of their rivals in the wild-card standings.
Will Shota Imanaga continue to cruise after a huge bounce-back month, or will he be outdone by the tantalizing Sonny Gray? Let's break this one down and give out a Cardinals vs Cubs pick.
Imanaga Tough to Score Against
Wednesday's 13-run outburst was a long-awaited breakout for a talented offense that has simply been down on its luck over the past couple of months.
Dansby Swanson extended his hitting streak, Nico Hoerner turned things back around with two hits and slumbering power hitters Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki totaled five hits and five RBIs with Happ leaving the yard for just the fourth time since July 4.
The Cubs offense moves runners around the bases with contact hitting, so it came as no surprise that Happ's long-ball was the only one of the day for the Cubs, who amassed 17 hits against Nick Lodolo and a pair of Cincinnati relievers.
Now, they'll face another strikeout-oriented pitcher in Gray, who will come at them from the right side.
The issue here is that Chicago has hit just .229 against righties to .248 against lefties, striking out at a 23.8% clip that's nearly three points higher than the reverse split. It has hit for more power against righties, but given that's not really the identity of this team, it's hard to call this one a good matchup.
The Cubs will have a lefty of their own going in Shota Imanaga, who struggled to a 5.67 ERA in June but turned things around in a big way last month with a 2.55 ERA across four starts.
The strikeout numbers recovered, and while he still struggled to limit home runs, he allowed just 20 hits in 24 2/3 innings compared to 32 in 27 June innings.
His extreme fly-ball approach will give up homers, but if he can keep runners off base and continue racking up punchouts, he'll remain a tough guy to score against.
Can Gray Rack Up Strikeouts?
The Cardinals have shown a slight preference to hit ground-ball pitchers, ranking 26th in OPS against fly-ball arms and 23rd against ground-ballers.
They've racked up a decent number of hits against both types, but their lack of power against those who pitch to contact in the air has been damning — and likely is a result of their adverse home park.
Wrigley Field has been roughly the same as Busch Stadium, grading out with a Park Factor of 94 to home runs since the start of 2022, which is just one point higher than what St. Louis' home park has produced.
With a 28th-ranked isolated power (ISO) mark of .118 against lefties and a much more reasonable .152 ISO against righties, the deck is clearly stacked against the Cardinals here.
They've hit for more power over the last two weeks, sure, but even then they're simply average in that regard. It's worth noting they failed to leave the yard against Imanaga when they saw him in the heart of his miserable June, scoring just one run on four hits over seven innings at Wrigley Field.
Gray has twice faced the Cubs, meanwhile, and after spinning five shutout innings with eight strikeouts back in late May, he stumbled a bit when he saw them a few weeks ago at home by allowing three runs on nine hits with six punchouts.
The right-hander has been driven by a career-best 30.6% strikeout rate this season, and while his whiffs and strikeouts came down a hair from April to May, he's done well to maintain his marks across the course of the season.
Chicago has struggled to make consistent contact against right-handers in 2024, and it should struggle to make a huge impact against a pitcher like Gray, who profiles similarly to Imanaga in the sense that he can be hurt by the long-ball.
Cubs vs Cardinals
Betting Pick & Prediction
Both of these teams are very much contact-oriented with their best games at the plate coming as the result of a barrage of hits. That doesn't bode well against two elite strikeout arms who have only been vulnerable to barrels and extra-base hits.
Neither team has shown it can produce these with regularity. While the Cubs are in a tough spot against a right-hander, the Cardinals have struggled more against lefties and haven't loved seeing fly-ball types like Imanaga.
In an unfriendly park, that should only hold these teams at bay even further.
I'm fearful of this Cubs bullpen, which seems to have gotten worse with the addition of Nate Pearson and the loss of Mark Leiter Jr., so I'm going to skip over the full-game total for the first five innings.
I expect Gray and Imanaga to continue rolling in a familiar matchup, as they've done multiple times this year against these two sides.
