The Detroit Tigers (85-73) head to the birthplace of Rock and Roll to take on the Cleveland Guardians (86-72) on September 25, 2025. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT.
Find my MLB pick and Tigers vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Tigers vs Guardians Prediction
- Tigers vs Guardians pick: Under 8
My Tigers vs Guardians prediction is on the under total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Tigers vs Guardians Baseball Odds
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +135 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -160 |
Tigers vs Guardians Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Troy Melton (DET) | Stat | LHP Parker Messick (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | W-L | 3-0 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.3 |
| 2.79/3.76 | ERA /xERA | 2.08/2.65 |
| 4.64/4.27 | FIP / xFIP | 2.16/3.11 |
| 1.00 | WHIP | 1.30 |
| 13.3% | K-BB% | 18.3% |
| 45.2% | GB% | 49.1% |
| 106 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 98 | Location+ | 111 |
Tigers vs Guardians Prediction, Pick
Game 3 of this AL Central clash features the Cleveland Guardians (-170) hosting the Detroit Tigers (+145). The over/under is 8 total runs, and after two Cleveland wins (5-2, 5-1), another pitching duel seems likely.
Troy Melton starts for Detroit, while Parker Messick takes the mound for Cleveland. Messick has been dominant at home this season, posting a 0.69 ERA in two starts, making a low-scoring game probable.
Detroit has dropped eight straight and is under pressure to stay in the division race, while Cleveland carries momentum and a tiebreaker advantage.
This matchup fits Evan Abrams’ “Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams, Later in Series” system: both squads have winning records, it’s later in the series, and public betting heavily favors the over. With under-support low, there’s contrarian value.
Pick: Under 8 (-115, bet365)
Tigers vs Guardians Betting Trends
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