The Cleveland Guardians host the Detroit Tigers on October 2, 2025. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 3:08 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on ABC.
Find my MLB betting preview and Tigers vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Tigers vs Guardians Prediction, Pick
- Tigers vs Guardians picks: Tigers ML (play to -115)
My Tigers vs Guardians best bet is Tigers ML (play to -115) Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Tigers vs Guardians Odds, Game Information
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 7 -120o / 100u | +110 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +175 | 7 -120o / 100u | -130 |
Tigers vs Guardians Projected Starters
| RHP Jack Flaherty (DET) | Stat | RHP Slade Cecconi (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-15 | W-L | 7-7 |
| 2.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 4.64/4.03 | ERA /xERA | 4.30/5.23 |
| 3.85/3.69 | FIP / xFIP | 4.64/4.09 |
| 1.28 | WHIP | 1.19 |
| 3.2 | K-BB% | 3.4 |
| 36.7 | GB% | 41.3 |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 93 |
| 102 | Location+ | 103 |
Tigers vs Guardians Betting Insights
Guardians Recent Betting Performance, Stats, Player Insights
The Guardians entered the eighth inning of game two with just six hits through 16 innings. And then Cleveland erupted for two home runs — one by Bryan Rocchio and one by Bo Naylor to secure a 6-1 win.
It's a huge boost for Cleveland to get middle-to-bottom-of-the-order production. Detroit has issued four walks to Jose Ramirez and had just four official ABs. He's by far the best hitter on the roster, so the Tigers avoiding him is smart — unless the Naylor's and Rocchio's of the world make them pay.
Another hitless Guardian is Steven Kwan, who needs to get rolling as their leadoff hitter. That would make it tougher for Detroit to pitch around Ramirez.
Cleveland posted its best offensive month of the year in September, posting a 101 wRC+ (13th best). Despite that, I'm more concerned about the Guardians' offense because of the dry spells we saw in the first two games.
It's been very feast-or-famine for Slade Cecconi. In two of his final five outings in September, he went 7+ innings with two or fewer hits (versus the Royals and Twins), against two of the worst offensive teams. He also went five or fewer innings with 4+ runs in two of the other starts. And obviously, the Guardians can ill-afford one of the ugly starts, which might mean Cecconi is on an even shorter leash than most pitchers would be.
Cecconi has pretty poor underlying numbers. He ranks in the 11th percentile in xERA, 10th in xBA, and in the fourth percentile or worse in barrel, hard-hit, and average exit velo. His poor hard-hit metrics are a big worry in a game of this magnitude.
Tigers Recent Betting Performance, Stats, Player Insights
The Tigers have to feel like they let one get away on Wednesday. They left 15 runners on base, including once with runners on the corners and one out. All those runners to only one run has to leave a sour taste in the Tigers' mouths.
That makes me feel better about their chances on Thursday, though. They can get on-base in a way the Guardians just can't. Detroit isn't hitting like it did early on, but the process played out the way AJ Hinch wanted it. The hitters just didn't come through in key moments.
Jack Flaherty is on the total opposite spectrum from Cecconi. He's been very unlucky, posting a 4.64 ERA with a 4.03 xERA and 3.85 FIP.
The former All-Star with the Cardinals reinvented himself with Detroit last year. He then pitched in the World Series with the Dodgers and I think Flaherty's postseason experience separates him and Cecconi. He won't be nervous about the environment, and his regular-season misfortune can turn into an October triumph.
Hinch had a very quick leash on game two starter, Casey Mize. Most managers have their pitchers under the closest of microscopes during the playoffs, but Flaherty's experience can likely buy him more outs than someone like Mize.
Tigers vs Guardians Picks and Predictions
The line is just about right here. Cleveland has been a lot better lately. I just don't trust this lineup much and Cecconi is a fade-worthy pitcher who can easily implode. It sounds obvious, but Detroit has a great chance to advance to the ALDS if it can get double-digit baserunners again. Odds are, they won't strand almost all of them. Give me the road team with the veteran hurler.
Of note, Flaherty lost his final two regular-season outings — both against these Guardians. He pitched well in one outing, allowing one run in five innings but surrendered five walks. The next start was a three-run outing 4 1/3 innings. I think we'll see something closer to his first outing of the two, but limiting walks is paramount to his success.
Pick: Tigers ML (play to -115)
Moneyline
I'm on the Tigers ML.
Run Line/Against The Spread
No play.
Over/Under
No Play
How To Watch Guardians vs Tigers
- Time: 3:08 p.m. ET
- TV: ABC
- Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio
