One of the most popular promotions in the sports betting community is back: MLB Dinger Tuesday from FanDuel.
The promotion allows a user to bet $25 on one player in every MLB game played that day to hit a home run. Regardless of whether the player you bet on homers, you receive $5 in free bets back for each home run hit in the game, with a max return of $25 for the game.
Many users have been limited by FanDuel this season and are only allowed to receive a maximum $25 back in free bets — essentially five free homers back for the day in free bets. Last season, there were higher limits, usually $50, on the return in free bets for players.
Given the average number of home runs in an MLB game in 2023 was 2.20, you will receive an average of $12 in free bets back for each $25 home run bet you make, without accounting for the loss in expected value on the vig of the home run "yes" prop.
If you aren't limited, you should play as many games as you’re comfortable with because the promo is still plus-EV for most of the board. If you are limited to the max return of $25, an average of two-to-three games will return your $25 maximum in free bets.
Note: It could take just one game to reach the $25 ceiling if there are five homers in that game.
Here are my three favorite MLB home run bets for Dinger Tuesday for April 30.
(Maximize your Dinger Tuesday action with our FanDuel promo code.)
The conditions are very favorable for offense at Camden Yards on Tuesday night with unseasonably warm 80-degree temperatures and wind blowing straight out to center. For left-handed hitters especially, the ballpark is playing considerably above average in terms of park factors.
Juan Soto gets a matchup with Dean Kremer, whose fastball velocity ticked down in his most recent outing. Kremer is primarily a fly ball pitcher, who has had sub-40% ground-ball rates for almost all of his career. As a result, Kremer has had a problem with home runs and allowed a career-worst 1.41 HR/9 last season. The sample is small in 2024, but Kremer's issues with preventing homers have continued and actually worsened — he's allowed 1.98 HR/9 in his first 27.1 innings of the season.
Kremer doesn't walk a ton of batters and is generally in the zone more than the average pitcher. Soto's increased aggression to swing more often early in counts has helped him tap into more power, and his batted ball data is encouraging. Soto's ground-ball rate this season is the lowest he's had since 2019 and his pull rate is the highest of his career. If you were looking for an elite hitter to tap into more power and hit homers, you'd want to see him lifting the ball and pulling it more. Soto has been notorious for not doing either enough in the past, but the underlying improvements seem real to me thus far.
A quick look at Riley Greene's Baseball Savant page wouldn't suggest that he's in the midst of a breakout season. His hard-hit rate and max exit velocities are comparable to last year and his SLG is only up 11 points. When you look a bit deeper though, there's a lot of reason to buy into the serious power upside for the former highly touted prospect. Greene has cut his swing rate on pitches outside of the zone from 29% to 24%. Greene's biggest issue in the past was the batted ball data, specifically his ground-ball rate. He has averaged a 51.5% ground-ball rate in his MLB career, but is now hitting the ball in the air 11% more than he did last season.
Kyle Gibson has been a journeyman and solid innings eater for years, but his underlying metrics are sliding off a cliff. He has a career-worst strikeout rate, walk rate and homer rate allowed. Gibson's Stuff+ is down year over year and his 5.22 FIP and 6.02 xERA suggest he's at the end of his career as a viable MLB starter. With a fading pitcher and a blossoming hitter, +680 is too good to pass up.
Kyle Tucker and the Astros return to the United States following their Mexico City sweep of Colorado, and Tucker is in a favorable matchup with the Guardians on Tuesday night. Tucker has been one of the most consistent power hitters in baseball for each of the past four seasons. He hit 30 homers in 2021, 30 in 2022 and 29 last season. This season, he's on pace to surpass 30 and soar closer to 35.
You'll notice a theme: He's hitting more fly balls. Tucker has also further improved his pitch selection by swinging less at pitches outside of the zone. By being more selective and hitting more fly balls, he's tapped into more home run power. Tucker's 50.6% fly-ball rate is a career high by more than three percent and 7.9% higher than last season. He was never much of a pull hitter, but the right fielder also has back-to-back seasons now with pull rates in the 40s.
THE BAT projects Guardians starter Carlos Carrasco to allow 1.58 HR/9 for the remainder of the season as he's seen a decline in stuff and consistent homer issues for the past few seasons.
