The San Diego Padres took Game 1 of their series with the San Francisco Giants and now get the pleasure of having their ace on the mound on Saturday night. Dylan Cease had a terrific season in his first year as a Padre; he would have been a front-runner for NL Cy-Young if it had not been for Chris Sale.
Logan Webb gets the ball for the Giants tonight, who's had a forgetful 2024 season. Oddsmakers have the Giants as +130 underdogs, and the total is set at 7. Let's get to my Giants vs Padres MLB parlay picks for this Saturday.
John Feltman's Giants vs Padres MLB Parlay Picks for Saturday
- Logan Webb Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)
- Michael Conforto Over 1.5 Total Bases (+155)
- Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Parlay Odds: +900 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Logan Webb Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)
Webb's overall stat line for 2024 is respectable, but his decline in strikeouts is the primary concern moving forward. The right-hander only has 154 strikeouts in 183 innings, which is a declining strikeout rate from a season ago. The Padres are the most formidable team to punch out, ranking first in the MLB in strikeouts per game on offense. Besides that, Webb's whiff and k-rates have declined significantly, ranking below the 35th percentile in both categories.
Webb is amongst the league's worst in allowing hard contact, so hitters are seeing the ball very well out of his hand. His chase rate is still at a decent number, but it is not churning out punchouts like he had hoped. His career numbers against the Padres are decent, but I do not think he clears five strikeouts tonight. He's only accumulated more than five strikeouts four times in his last 11 starts, which came against Atlanta (twice), Detroit, and the White Sox.
All those teams are amongst the top portion of the league in strikeouts per game, so I feel good about Webb staying under his prop total tonight.
Michael Conforto Over 1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Michael Conforto needs to get out of San Francisco ASAP because his home ballpark is not doing him many favors. Conforto ranks above the 70th percentile in the following offensive metrics:
-xSLG
-xWOBA
-Barrel%
-Hard-Hit%
-Bat Speed
-Chase Rate
For a guy batting .230, it is safe to say he has been criminally unlucky. If Conforto were in a neutral park for his home games, his numbers would be much better. I realize Cease is having a terrific season, but Conforto has done well against him in the past. He is 4-for-10 with a homer against his lifetime, so familiarity is working in our favor.
The price of +155 on the prop is way too much of an overreaction to the matchup, and it is due to the low total of the game. Conforto has always done exceptionally well against righties in his career. So, I like his chances of knocking an extra-base-hit or multiple hits tonight in a plus-matchup.
Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Cronenworth's total bases prop is the last leg of the SGP, and I could not pass up the value. Cronenworth is another hitter that is on the side of misfortune. Like Conforto, Cronenworth has been unlucky in 2024. He is hitting .249 on the season. His xBA is .267, and he ranks above the 70th percentile in squared up% and xWOBA.
He also has a .442 xSLG and is batting .266 against righties this season. He's hitting a miserable .200 against Southpaws, so his numbers get a significant boost against right-handers. He's 7-24 against Webb lifetime, and he's been highly prone to hard contact. I like Cronenworth's chances of garnering an extra-base hit and taking advantage of a good matchup.
