We'll be treated to yet another Paul Skenes start on Thursday when the Pittsburgh Pirates play host to the San Francisco Giants. And while there's excitement abound for the home team, the visitors will counter with a red-hot offense and an intriguing young right arm of their own in Mason Black.
What Black lacks in fastball velocity he makes up for with his knack for getting outs, something he displayed through a month and a half at the Triple-A level this season. He should create a pitcher's duel at PNC Park, leading us to a fun, three-leg Same Game Parlay.
Let's combine a few elements of the duel here to make some money.
Here's my Giants vs Pirates Same Game Parlay: Thursday MLB SGP Picks.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Giants vs Pirates Same Game Parlay: Thursday MLB SGP (+525, DraftKings)
- Under 8.5 (-115)
- Paul Skenes Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (-105)
- Paul Skenes Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-110)
Under 8.5
Let's begin by laying out the case for Black, given Skenes having another dominant showing is a much easier sell.
The right-hander hasn't given us a ton to work with (he's made just three big-league starts), but I think there's enough reason to believe in him on Thursday.
Not only did he shine this season down in Sacramento (pitching to a sparkling 1.01 ERA in 26 2/3 innings), he's also replicated that success to some degree in the bigs.
Yes, his Baseball Savant page may appear very blue, but one of the keys I'm looking at are the individual starts. He was magnificent through four frames of his big-league debut prior to being left out there longer than he should've been.
He eclipsed his season-high in pitches in that one, but he also managed to lower his Expected Batting Average next time out against Cincinnati.
He ran into trouble in his latest turn through the rotation against the Rockies, but it was the sweeper that did him in, with the expected stats on the rest of his arsenal leveling out a bit.
The Pirates have just two players with a positive run value against the sweeper this season and are expected to start at least five players with a negative run value against the pitch.
Given they're continuing to waffle at the plate, I think this is a great spot for Black to turn in his first solid outing.
On the flip side, well, we have Skenes, who's looked unhittable through two games and shouldn't afford San Francisco the ability to be patient in plate appearances, which is where it thrives.
More on that next.
Paul Skenes Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (-105)
Skenes has only walked three batters through 10 big-league innings, with two of those coming in his first outing against the Cubs.
If we look further, the first walk was in his very first inning and came after Skenes tried to get cute up 1-2 in the count.
The next was very much an earned walk, and the third was incredibly unfortunate after he was squeezed on a splitter, which caught the bottom of the zone on 2-2.
I might be getting a bit too far into the weeds with this one, but Skenes has displayed expert command and control through two starts, walking just 2.6 per nine in the minors and 1.5 per nine at LSU last season.
He's thrown first-pitch strikes a solid 56.4% of the time and most importantly, he's thrown over 67% of his pitches for strikes, which would be just outside the top 10 of starting pitchers if he had pitched enough to qualify.
I think we can say with certainty that Skenes is a strike-thrower, and we're getting a little bit of a discount here given the results to this point and San Francisco's ability to take walks.
I just don't see his opponent working him into many spots of bother, and it's worth noting that he's worked a three-ball count just 12 times in 39 batters.
Even more impressive is the fact that just three of these counts have resulted in walks.
Paul Skenes Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-110)
Finally, I'll be as bold as to take Skenes to hit his strikeout total again.
Sure, you might say it's not a bold call after he threw six no-hit innings with 11 punchouts against the Cubs, but the Giants are striking out under 20% of the time in the last two weeks and have done a great job in that area all season long.
Chicago is a similarly-disciplined team and even had the advantage last week after facing Skenes in his big-league debut, yet it still punched out 11 times in six frames.
Skenes is unlike anyone we've ever seen before, posting a near-43% strikeout rate in Triple-A this year and carrying a 46.2% strikeout rate through two major-league outings.
He struck out an insane 15.3 per nine in his senior season at LSU last season and in a small sample at the minor-league level, he earned 14.6 punchies per nine.
So, I think while the matchup may appear unfriendly on the surface, it likely doesn't matter.
Skenes may already be a legendary strikeout machine and the added bonus is that the Giants will be facing him for the first time with no experience to draw from and very little film to watch.
