Guardians Walk-Off the Yankees – What it Means for ALCS Odds

Guardians Walk-Off the Yankees – What it Means for ALCS Odds article feature image
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Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images Pictured: David Fry of the Cleveland Guardians celebrates a two run home run during the tenth inning against the New York Yankees during Game Three of the American League Championship Series at Progressive Field on October 17, 2024 in Cleveland, Ohio

Is it hyperbole to say Cleveland’s ALCS Game 3 win against the Yankees was one of the biggest in franchise history?

Only one team has ever come back from a 3-0 series hole to win a series. That came 20 years ago when the Red Sox famously fought back against the Yankees to win the American League pennant and eventually their first World Series since 1918.

The Guardians were on the precipice of needing to become the second team to ever do so before Jhonkensy Noel hit as dramatic a home run as you’ll see all October.

Down 2-0 in the series, down by two in the game, and down to two outs in the bottom of the ninth, Noel launched a 404-foot pinch-hit tank shot to knot the game at 5-5. In the process, he became the first rookie to hit a game-tying home run in the ninth inning or later of a postseason game.

The Yankees were -1600 at BetMGM entering the bottom of the ninth while the Guardians were +825, meaning New York had 94.12% implied odds of winning while Cleveland had 10.81%. That changed to the Yankees -125 and Guardians +100 on one single swing of the bat.

The drama didn’t end there, though. David Fry sent Progressive Field home in a frenzy with another two-out, two-run homer for the walk-off  7-5 win. His 404-foot homer completely changed the dynamic of the series, as there’s a world of difference between 3-0 and 2-1.

The Yankees are still favored to win the series. New York is +310, while Cleveland is -400. The Yankees are also road favorites in Game 3 at -125, while the Guardians are +105. Cleveland is +1.5 on the run line at -165, while New York is -1.5 at +140.

About the Author
Ricky Henne writes for the Action Network's news team, covering all sports, events and breaking news. He also contributes to Action's NFL coverage. Ricky joined Action in 2022 with more than 20 years of experience covering professional sports. He wrote for the Los Angeles Chargers, New York Knicks and New York Rangers before entering the sports betting industry.

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