Astros vs Phillies Prediction, Picks, Odds for Tuesday, August 27

The Philadelphia Phillies walked off the Houston Astros on Monday evening to kick off a 3-game set at Citizen's Bank Park. Bryce Harper's game-winning knock secured the victory for the Phils in extra innings.

Tuesda night, we have a strong pitching matchup on paper between a couple of veteran right-handers, as I break down my Astros vs. Phillies predictions and my MLB picks for tonight. Justin Verlander gets the ball for the Astros and is opposed by Aaron Nola.

You can find both starter metrics below in the pitching matchup chart, and you'd be surprised to find out that oddsmakers set the total at 9 across most books. The 'Stros are slight underdogs heading in, priced at +120 on the money line.

Let's dive deeper into the matchup below for Tuesday night's clash between the Astros and Phillies.

My Astros-Phillies best bet for tonight is on Houston to win outright, with the best line available at FanDuel, with all of the best lines for the today available on our live MLB odds page.

Tuesday, Aug 27

6:40 p.m. ET

SCHN

Astros Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+1.5 -164	9 -100o / -122u	+126

Phillies Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-1.5 +136	9 -100o / -122u	-148

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

• Astros vs Phillies run line: Phillies -1.5 (+136) | Astros +1.5 (-164)
• Astros vs Phillies total: Over/under 9 runs scored
• Astros vs Phillies moneylines: Phillies -148 | Astros +126

John Feltman’s Astros vs Phillies Preview

Houston Astros Betting Preview: A Bounce Back From Houston

Justin Verlander has looked sharp since returning from injury, and he'll look to continue that trend in Philadelphia tonight. He might be 41 years old, but Verlander has proven that his recent success is no fluke.

He ranks in the 91st percentile in hard-hit rate against, which is outstanding given his recent injuries. Father time has not quite caught up, given his 3.67 xERA is lower than his 3.92 ERA.

Verlander doesn't light up the radar gun like he used to, but he still strikes out many hitters and doesn't walk too many guys. Yet, he's not generating as many swings and misses as he used to.

Verlander's groundball rate is so poor (25%) that I'm sure it is not sustainable, but Citizens Bank is a brutal ballpark to allow flyballs.

The Stros offense has poor career numbers against Nola, batting .206 lifetime against him. The good news is that the 'Stros are balanced against both left-handed and right-handed pitching.

One of the main reasons for their major turnaround in 2024 is that balance. They may not break through against Nola early on, but he is prone to sometimes allowing hard contact.

After scoring 2-runs on Monday, I expect the Stros offense to bounce back. Verlander will have to hold up his end of the bargain to give his team a chance to pull out a late victory.

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Overvalued Philly at Home?

The Phillies enter Tuesday's contest on a three-game winning streak. Aaron Nola has had moments of greatness in 2024, but there are clear signs of regression in a few of his starts thus far.

As you can see in the chart above, Nola's numbers are decent, but the one alarming metric that stuck out to me was his low fastball velocity. Nola's fastball averages 92 MPH, and it has continued to decline as the years pass.

His whiff rate is below average, but he does rank above the 85th percentile in chase rate. The Astros rank inside the top half of the league in runs per game and rank top-five in batting average.

The Phillies' offense dips against right-handed pitching, which is a bit peculiar considering their star hitters, Harper and Schwarber, are left-handed. The team's batting average at home slightly bumps, but I believe it is being overvalued too much here.

Astros vs Phillies Prediction, Betting Analysis

Nola and Verlander should duel it out for the top portion of the game, but in the end, I expect the Stros offense to have the advantage for most of the game. +120 is a great price to back them tonight, and I expect them to snap the Phillies' three-game winning streak.

I'd argue that the Stros pen is much more trustworthy than the Phils' pen, and I would take their lineup, even without Kyle Tucker, over the current state of a red-hot Phillies team.

The Stros are being overlooked tonight, and I will gladly fade the public.

Astros vs Phillies Pick: Astros ML (+120)

Moneyline

The Astros show value tonight on the moneyline, especially when considering the Phillies are worse offensively against right-handers. I give a slight edge to the Astros lineup and their bullpen, so I’d advise tailing my official play.

Run Line (Spread)

PASS

I do not see much value in an alternate Astros run line or in taking the Phillies run line. The Phillies could win the game in a close one or lose outright. The value lies within the Astros alternate line.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 9

My 2nd alternative play was going to be the under. I believe that both Nola and Verlander will duel one another, and the line is a tad inflated based on their underlying metrics. Yes, both pitchers are on the decline, but that does not mean they are not still effective. Both starters have enough positive outlook to believe they can pitch effectively in the early going.

Astros vs Phillies Betting Trends

• 78% of bets and 92% of the money are on the Phillies to win on the moneyline.
• 74% of bets and 78% of the money are on the over.

ASTROS:

• Astros are 2-3 in their last 5 games
• Astros are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
• Astros are 34-33 in their road games against the spread
• The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Astros' last 5 games
• The totals have gone OVER in 26 of Astros' 64 last games at home

PHILLIES:

• Phillies are 3-2 in their last 5 games
• Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
• Phillies are 30-35 in their road games against the spread
• The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Phillies' last 5 games
• The totals have gone OVER in 29 of Phillies' 66 last games at home

Astros vs Phillies Weather