The Houston Astros (64-55) opened up Tuesday night's series opener against the Tampa Bay Rays (59-60) with a victory, thanks to a strong performance by Yusei Kikuchi. On Wednesday at Tropicana Field, the Rays try to even up the series with Zack Littell on the rubber. He'll be opposed by Astros right-hander Ronel Blanco, who's having a solid season on the mound.
The Rays have lost four of their last five and are now 5 1/2 games back of an AL wild-card spot. The Astros, meanwhile, lead the AL West over the Seattle Mariners by 1 1/2 games entering Wednesday.
Rays-Astros odds for Wednesday have the Astros as -125 favorites on the moneyline with an over/under of 7.5 (-115o / -105u). You can find my Astros vs Rays prediction and pick on the first five innings (F5) in my betting preview below.
Astros vs Rays Odds
| Houston Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-125 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -1.5 +140 |
| Tampa Bay Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+105 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +1.5 -165 |
Astros-Rays Probable Starting Pitchers Head-to-Head
| RHP Ronel Blanco (HOU) | Stat | RHP Zack Littell (TB) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-6 | W-L | 5-8 |
| 1.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.6 |
| 3.02/4.03 | ERA /xERA | 4.11/4.41 |
| 4.38/4.17 | FIP / xFIP | 4.04/4.03 |
| 1.05 | WHIP | 1.35 |
| 14.6% | K-BB% | 16.7% |
| 38.1% | GB% | 34.3% |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 83 |
| 100 | Location+ | 103 |
Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays Prediction Preview
Astros Betting Preview: Fade Ronel Blanco?
Blanco enters this start with solid numbers, but as you can see from the pitching chart above, there are reasons for concern moving forward. Notably, Blanco has an xERA nearly a full run above his current ERA.
Taking a deeper look into the numbers, Blanco walks far too many batters to maintain his success. Not only that, he also gives up hard contact and allows a lot of fly balls.
His current WHIP somehow sits at 1.05, but he has never finished a season with a WHIP below 1.48. Many fans might be fooled by the no-hitter he threw earlier in the season, but they'd be surprised to see that opposing hitters are squaring up the ball at a high rate against him.
The Rays are far worse against right-handed pitching as opposed to left-handed pitching, so that's the one factor working in Blanco's favor. Tampa Bay's offense is not very good overall, but Blanco is in for a reality check sooner rather than later.
On the other side, the Astros have good numbers against Littell, entering the contest 11-for-36 against him lifetime. While it's not the largest sample size in the world, it's worth noting.
I can't back the Astros due to Blanco's uncertainty, but I think their offense should find success here.
Rays Betting Preview: Can Junior Caminero Spark Tampa?
The Rays are running out of time to make some magic happen down the stretch. They need to compile series wins to get themselves back into the wild-card race before September rolls around.
You see Littell's numbers above, but what you don't see is his inability to miss bats. Littell has whiff and chase rates well below the league average, and he allows a lot of hard contact.
There's a reason why his xERA sits at 4.41, especially considering he ranks below the 10th percentile in ground-ball rate. I have no reason to believe Littell can find success here, so it'll be up to the offense to step up.
Meanwhile, the Rays are 7-for-26 against Blanco lifetime. But as mentioned, they're a worse offensive team against right-handers. They called up top prospect Junior Caminero yesterday, so perhaps he can provide the offensive spark they need.
It's a tough sell for the Rays given Littell's numbers. The question is whether or not they can take advantage of Blanco's impending implosion.
John Feltman's Astros vs Rays Prediction: F5 Moneyline
I'm going to target the Rays F5 here despite my lack of confidence in their offense.
Littell could beat up here, but I'm going to trust that the Rays offense wakes up in a desperate situation against Blanco. Blanco has been skating on thin ice of late, and he's bound to get hit very hard in the near future.
Littell's numbers are less than desirable as well, but I'll back the home team and bank on the fact that they'll have an early lead.
Pick: Rays F5 ML -104
Moneyline
I have no faith in the Rays offense right now to back them for a full game. Once Houston deploys its bullpen, I have a feeling the bats will be silenced for a good portion of the later stages of the ballgame.
The Rays' bullpen is respectable, but I trust the Astros offense much more.
The public is all over Houston as of Wednesday morning, while the sharp money has come in on Tampa Bay. That usually would be a sign to take Tampa, but no thank you.
Run Line (Spread)
I don't have a strong enough feel here for either side. Blanco could easily put the Astros in a massive hole, but the same could be said for Littell and the Rays.
If I had more faith in the Rays offense, I'd definitely consider laying the -1.5 in what would be a good opportunity to buy low. But ultimately, I can't get involved here.
Over/Under
Both starting pitchers here have questionable numbers at best. Well, that means both offenses have a good chance of finding success.
Both offenses were pretty stagnant last night, and the game went under the total. That makes tonight a solid opportunity for both of these units to bounce back. However, the uncertainty of the Rays offense is why I'm not making it an official play.
But if you're looking for a different betting angle than holding your nose with the Rays F5, I'd consider the over.
