A late collapse Wednesday in Cleveland prevented the Royals from heading to Houston on top of the AL Central, but they still have to be happy to have taken three of four from the Guardians this week. For the first of four games at Minute Maid Park, the Royals turn to Brady Singer, who looks to bounce back from an ugly outing Sunday in Philadelphia.
While the Royals and Singer provide a stiff test, the division-leading Astros are favored in Game 1 with a red-hot Hunter Brown set to start. Read below for my Royals vs. Astros predictions (8:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV) for Thursday.
Royals vs Astros Prediction
- Royals vs Astros pick: Astros -1.5 (+138)
My Royals-Astros pick is on Astros -1.5, where I see value at a line of +138. The best widely available line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Royals vs. Astros Odds
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -166 | 8 -110o / -110u | +130 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +138 | 8 -110o / -110u | -154 |
Royals vs Astros Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Brady Singer (KCR) | Stat | RHP Hunter Brown (HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-9 | W-L | 11-7 |
| 2.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.5 |
| 3.38/4.47 | ERA /xERA | 3.72/3.39 |
| 3.67/3.57 | FIP / xFIP | 3.72/3.51 |
| 1.25 | WHIP | 1.32 |
| 16.4% | K-BB% | 16.7% |
| 46.6% | GB% | 48.0% |
| 85 | Stuff+ | 103 |
| 101 | Location+ | 101 |
Nicholas Martin's Royals vs Astros Preview
Kansas City Royals Betting Preview: Better on Road vs. Home
Over the last two months, the Royals' night-and-day splits at the plate at home versus on the road have shortened. After a strong series versus Cleveland, they now hold a wRC+ of 125 on the road since July 1, which is actually better than their mark at home during the same span.
They have struck out only 16.4% of the time with a 19th-ranked K/BB ratio, so the gigantic gap in plate discipline on the road versus at home has also narrowed.
They have hit to a wRC+ of 125 versus right-handed pitching since the All-Star break with an OPS of .823.
Hunter Renfroe landed on the 10-day IL Sunday with a right hamstring strain. He should be the only position player missing from the Royals' lineup on Thursday.
Singer has an ERA of 4.54 since the All-Star break, but his xFIP has remained strong at 3.46 in that period. He has been hard-hit 40% of the time in that span and allowed an xBA of .262, while his ground-ball rate is down to 38%.
His slider rates out as his best pitch (111 Stuff+) and has been effective (opponents batting just .204). The Astros rank ninth in the league against sliders with a 3.5 runs-above-average rating on the pitch.
Kansas City's bullpen has stabilized, as it holds an ERA of 4.13 with an xFIP of 4.21 over the last month. Hunter Harvey and Will Smith both remain on the IL, and the unit was worked heavily in Cleveland after short outings from Cole Ragans and Michael Lorenzen (injured in second inning).
Houston Astros Betting Preview: Pitching Has Been Dominant
The Astros pitching staff has been dominant, as starters Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti have found top form, while the bullpen is now living up to lofty preseason expectations.
Over the last month, Astros relievers have pitched to a league-leading 2.83 ERA and rank second with an xFIP of 3.37. Their K/9 of 10.69 in that span also ranks second.
It's become a pretty lengthy sample of dominance from Brown, who's overall numbers are still tanked by a horrid start to the season, which included nine earned runs versus the Royals on April 11. Since July 1, whoever, Brown has a 2.85 ERA over 60 innings of work, with an xFIP of 3.37, and a K/9 of 9.30.
Since the All-Star break, Brown's ERA (2.50) and xFIP (2.78) are even lower, and his strikeout rate has climbed to 28%. Opponents' 31% hard-hit rate versus Brown is the third-lowest of any qualified starter in MLB.
Over the last month, the Astros have hit to a wRC+ of 113 against right-handed pitching with an OPS of .749. Kyle Tucker is reportedly getting closer and should return to the lineup soon, but he will remain out for this matchup. He should be the only Astros player missing from the lineup.
Royals vs Astros Prediction, Betting Analysis: Fade Royals
Brown, who has been one of the most dominant starters in the American League of late, features a tremendous underlying profile. He provides a notable edge over Singer, who's level has tailed off over the last handful of outings. The Astros also own a considerable bullpen advantage, which is slightly more pronounced currently because of the Royals' reliever usage in Cleveland.
The Astros should have a good chance to find success against Singer, and a little offense could be all they need with the way Brown has been shoving of late. This looks like a good spot to take the longer number to back Houston winning by two or more.
Royals vs. Astros Pick: Astros -1.5 (+138 | Play to +130)
Moneyline History
| Royals | Astros | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 75-58 | 70-62 |
| Home | 41-28 | 35-29 |
| Away | 34-30 | 35-33 |
| Favorite | 42-23 | 51-42 |
| Underdog | 32-35 | 17-19 |
Total (Over/Under) History
| Royals | Astros | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 61-68-4 | 52-77-3 |
| Home | 31-33 | 26-32-2 |
| Away | 25-35-4 | 26-41-1 |
| Favorite | 29-36 | 33-57-3 |
| Underdog | 31-32-4 | 17-19 |
Royals vs Astros Betting Trends
- 21% of the bets and 59% of the money are on the Royals on the moneyline.
- 86% of the bets and 81% of the money are on the over.
- 22% of the bets and 19% of the money are on the Royals to cover the run line.
Royals Betting Trends
- Royals are 3-2 in their last 5 games
- Royals are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Royals are 35-29 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Royals' last 7 games
Astros Betting Trends
- The Astros are 1-4 in their last 5 games
- Astros are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Astros' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 25 of Astros 64 last games at home
Royals-Astros Weather Forecast
