August has been a very good month for the Royals and Astros separating themselves and securing their playoff position.
Houston has pulled to 3.5 games ahead of Seattle in the AL West and have gone 15-10 during August. Kansas City is 15-10 in August and has moved within a game of Cleveland for the division and is in the second wild card position with a 5.5 game lead clear of Boston.
Whoever wins this season will strengthen their postseason position even further so who has the edge on Friday night? Read further for my Royals vs Astros prediction.
Royals vs Astros Prediction
- Royals vs Astros pick: Astros (-155 or Better)
My Royals-Astros pick is on Houston moneyline, where I see value at a line of -155 . The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Royals vs. Astros Odds
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -154 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +140 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +128 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -166 |
Royals vs Astros Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Seth Lugo (KC) | Stat | LHP Framber Valdez (HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 14-8 | W-L | 13-6 |
| 3.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.0 |
| 3.19 / 3.97 | ERA /xERA | 3.27 / 3.44 |
| 3.44 / 3.95 | FIP / xFIP | 3.26 / 3.11 |
| 1.12 | WHIP | 1.14 |
| 14.7% | K-BB% | 24.2% |
| 44.6% | GB% | 59.2% |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 112 |
| 100 | Location+ | 97 |
Royals vs Astros Preview
Kansas City Royals Betting Preview: Offense Picking Up Slack
I bet nobody thought Seth Lugo would be a Cy Young candidate this season, but here we are. Lugo has been brilliant in his first season with the Royals. He is 14-8 with a 3.19 ERA, 10th best in baseball. Only Chris Sale and Tarik Skubal have won more games than Lugo, and they likely take home the Cy Young awards in each league.
There are a few red flags, however. Lugo has an xERA nearly a run higher at 3.97. We have already seen that regression setting in. He had a 2.48 ERA before the All-Star break but has a 5.20 ERA in his last seven starts. He has allowed at least four runs in five of his last eight outings.
While Lugo has fallen off a bit since the break, the Royals offense has only picked things up. Kansas City had a team OPS of .711 in the first half but sit with an .810 OPS since the all-star game.
The Royals rank third with a 122 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Bobby Witt Jr. will likely finish second in AL MVP voting and is one of the best pure hitters in the game. Salvador Perez continues to defy time, and Vinnie Pasquantino and MJ Melendez are both smacking the ball recently.
Houston Astros Betting Preview: Houston Shooting for the Stars
Framber Valdez has been exactly what we have come to expect. He has a mid-threes ERA and consistently gives the Astros six strong innings. He averages 6.2 innings per start and has gone at least six frames in 15 of his 23 outings.
Valdez got off to a bit of a slow start this season but has turned it on since the All-Star break. He is 5-1 with a 2.40 ERA in his seven starts since the break. He continues to pound the bottom of the strike zone with his sinker and curveball combo, generating one of the highest ground-ball rates in the league.
It is remarkable how long the Astros have consistently managed to field a top-10 level offense but here they are once again ranked eighth in wRC+ on the season. They have done that despite missing one of their best hitters for the majority of the season in Kyle Tucker.
Yordan Alvarez ranks fifth in the league with a .965 OPS while hitting .313 with 28 home runs. Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yainer Diaz, and Jeremy Pena are all having really strong seasons to guide this Houston offense.
Royals vs Astros Prediction, Betting Analysis
These two pitchers have been going in wildly different directions over the last month and a half. Since the All-Star break, Lugo has a 5.20 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and is allowing a .243 average against him. Over that same stretch, Valdez has a 2.40 ERA with a 0.84 WHIP and opponents are hitting just .165 against him.
Valdez looks like his old self, dominating the bottom of the zone with his sinker and curveball to generate a ground-ball rate above 60%. Lugo is struggling right now and has to face a deep lineup that knows how to turn it on this time of year.
Houston’s offense can match the Royals star power with Alvarez balancing out Witt and as hot as Kansas City has been at the plate, Houston is right up there with him.
The Royals have a pretty dramatic difference in their home-road splits this season. They have a .776 OPS at home this year but just a .703 OPS on the road. While they have been better on the road recently, they still take a step back when they’re away from Kauffman Stadium.
As good as the Royals have been hitting the ball recently, I still prefer the Astros offense. Houston has a massive edge at starting pitcher given the current form of these two arms, and the Astros relievers have the second-best bullpen ERA over the last month, while Kansas City has a bottom-five bullpen.
Play Houston at anything -160 or better.
Pick: Houston -155 or Better
Moneyline
Given the current form of Lugo and Valdez, I give the Astros a significant advantage in this game and would play them on the moneyline up to -160.
Run Line (Spread)
Pass
Over/Under
I lean over given how well these two offenses have been hitting recently but not enough to play it.
Royals vs Astros Betting Trends
- 91% of the bets and 97% of the money are on the Astros on the moneyline.
- 89% of the bets and 91% of the money are on the over.
- 72% of the bets and 84% of the money are on the Astros to cover the run line.
Royals Betting Trends
- Royals are 3-2 in their past five games
- Royals are 2-3 in their past five games against the spread
- Royals are 32-35 when listed as the underdog
Astros Betting Trends
- Astros are 3-2 in their past five games
- Astros are 4-1 in their past five games against the spread
- Astros. are 51-42 when listed as the favorite
