The Los Angeles Dodgers (68-49) travel to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (67-50) on Monday. The Dodgers are slight -112 favorites to win the first game of this four-game series at American Family Field, with the Brewers -104 on the moneyline. The run line is set at LA -1.5, with the Dodgers +152 to cover -1.5 and the Brewers -184 to cover +1.5. The total currently sits at over/under 8 runs scored. With those Dodgers vs Brewers odds in mind, let's get to my Dodgers vs Brewers prediction.
Most teams this time of year are fighting for their playoff lives. But for the Dodgers and Brewers, their biggest challenge for the rest of the season will be not becoming complacent.
The Brewers' 7.5-game division lead is the biggest in baseball. They have continued to truck along, starting 12-8 in the second half of the year, and are right behind the Dodgers for the best record in the National League.
Despite sitting atop the NL standings, the Dodgers have seen their division lead cut to just 3.5 games recently as the red-hot Padres and Diamondbacks are both closing the gap. Los Angeles has been decimated by injuries, yet are still 13-8 since the all-star break.
The biggest story on Monday, will be the turn of all-star Mookie Betts to the Dodgers lineup. Betts is expected to be activated from the injured list after missing nearly two months with a broken hand. Let's break down what that means in my Dodgers vs Brewers best bet for Monday, August 12.
Dodgers vs Brewers Prediction
Bet Rhys Hoskins over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI
Dodgers vs Brewers Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +152 | 8 -110o / -110u | -112 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -184 | 8 -110o / -110u | -104 |
Dodgers vs Brewers Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Clayton Kershaw (LAD) | Stat | RHP Freddy Peralta (MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | W-L | 7-6 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.0 |
| 4.38/3.90 | ERA /xERA | 4.02/3.84 |
| 3.42/4.33 | FIP / xFIP | 3.99/3.66 |
| 1.62 | WHIP | 1.22 |
| 13.3% | K-BB% | 20.5% |
| 36.4% | GB% | 38.3% |
| 102 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 101 | Location+ | 98 |
Mike Ianniello’s Dodgers vs Brewers Preview
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: Return of Betts Massive for L.A.
I hate to say it, but Clayton Kershaw might be cooked. The first-ballot Hall of Famer has struggled in his return from the injured list after missing the entire first half due to shoulder surgery. In three starts since returning, Kershaw has a 4.38 ERA and just 11 strikeouts in 12 innings.
In a small sample size, Kershaw has the lowest K/9 rate in his career. His velocity is down in his return. His two best pitches have typically been his slider and fastball, but opponents are hitting .310 against his slider and .467 against his fastball with a .526 wOBA.
The 36-year-old has not been allowing much hard contact, but his ability to miss bats has allowed teams to pile up props/hits. Kershaw has not made it through the fifth inning in a start yet this year.
We know what the Dodgers offense is capable of. On the season as a whole, they rank fourth in wOBA and third in wRC+. However, they rank outside of the top 10 in both since Betts went out with an injury.
Betts was the favorite to win the NL MVP at the time of his injury and now it looks like his teammate Shohei Ohtani is going to run away with the award. This Dodgers lineup has been more top heavy than expected so getting Betts back is massive.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview: Don't Overlook Brewers Offense
Freddy Peralta looked like he was going to be in the NL Cy Young discussion after the first month of the season but has seen his ERA float above 4.00 and has looked more like a mid-level pitcher than the ace-quality arm the Brewers were hoping for.
Peralta still knows how to miss bats. He has generated an 11.13 K/9 rate and racks them up with his fastball and slider combo. This issue has been when he is not getting whiffs, Peralta has been allowing too much hard contact. He has allowed a bottom 20% barrel rate and his fastball is surrendering a 45% hard-hit rate.
Milwaukee’s offense always seems to fly under the radar. They are top 10 in the league in runs, wOBA, and wRC+ and get it done with solid, fundamental baseball. In the ERA of home run or strikeout, the Brew Crew rank just 19th in home runs. But they rank third in walks and third in stolen bases.
Only the Yankees have a better team on-base percentage than Milwaukee. Rookie Jackson Chourio has really come on strong over the second half of the year. Chourio, Willy Adames, William Contreras and Rhys Hoskins have an OPS above .850 over the last month.
My Dodgers vs Brewers Prediction
I struggled to find an angle on the side or total in this one, as I think the market is spot on. Milwaukee has the advantage in starting pitching and in the bullpen, while Los Angeles has the advantage at the plate.
Both teams have played relatively equal ball throughout this whole season and are two of the best teams in the league. So a pick ‘em price is fair. Instead, I will look to attack the player props market.
Rhys Hoskins has always seen the ball really well against Kershaw. He is 4-for-9 with a home run, a triple, and a .606 wOBA against Kershaw in his career, and most of those at bats came against a better version of Kershaw than we are seeing in 2024.
Hoskins is also locked in at the plate right now, hitting .311 with a .909 OPS over the last two weeks, and .350 with a .959 OPS over the last week.
In his last 14 games, Hoskins has tallied at least two hits, runs, and RBI in 11 contests. I like Hoskins to stay locked in at the plate and continue his success against Kershaw and go over 1.5 H+R+R on Monday.
Dodgers vs Brewers Pick: Rhys Hoskins over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI
Moneyline
This line is fair with the Dodgers as a slight favorite in what is virtually a pick 'em. Pass.
Run Line — Against the Spread
Pass.
Over/Under
I would lean under if an 8.5 pops up anywhere, but at 8 flat the total is a pass for me.
