The Los Angeles Dodgers took care of business in Game 3 of the NLCS on Wednesday night, winning 8-0.
The Mets' pitching staff did a fine job early in the game to hold the Dodger's offense to limited scoring opportunities, but their bats never woke up. The Dodgers broke it open late in the game, including a couple of home runs from Max Muncy and Shohei Ohtani.
Tonight is arguably the most crucial game of the Mets season, as a 3-1 deficit would be essentially curtains for their magical run.
I compiled a three-leg Mets vs Dodgers parlay for Game 4 of the NLCS that pays over 8-1 on your original investment if it hits.
Mets vs Dodgers: +833 Parlay for NLCS Game 4
- Mets ML (+120)
- Under 7.5 (-124)
- Jose Quintana Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Parlay Odds: +833 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Mets vs Dodgers Parlay Leg 1
Mets ML (+120)
The Mets have come through every time their backs have been against the wall along this wild journey, and I will not let last night's performance deter me from backing them here.
Many people believe the Dodgers will take care of business, as 85% of the bets have already flooded in on Los Angeles.
But I did notice a tick of sharp money flow in on the Mets early Thursday morning, and I will happily fade the public and back the sharps tonight. Given the circumstances, the Mets should put forth an all-out effort in a due-or-die circumstance.
Battling Yamamoto and the Dodgers bullpen is not easy, but they used many higher-leverage arms yesterday.
That should give the Mets an edge in a tight game, as they did not deploy any higher-leverage arms in Game 3.
They've been able to counter every punch throughout the year. They counter-punched in Game 2 after being blown out in Game 1, and Mendoza should manage the game extra aggressively to secure a win for his club tonight.
Mets vs Dodgers Parlay Leg 2
Under 7.5 (-124)
Last night's game featured a Dodgers offense that put pressure on what felt like every inning, and the Mets offense looked lifeless for most of the evening.
Both teams left a lot of men on base, but the Dodgers were able to capitalize in most circumstances. A lot of the contact against Severino was weak, so the Dodgers were, quite honestly, fortunate to score early in the game.
I will throw out the latter portion of the game, considering it was already over once the Dodgers took a commanding 4-0 lead, as their bullpen was outstanding all evening.
I have a feeling tonight will play out quickly.
Yamamoto had an injury-riddled 2024 season, and many are surprised that he was able to return this year. When he's been healthy, Yamamoto has put forth terrific numbers.
He's amassed 105 strikeouts and a 1.11 WHIP in 90 innings. The Mets faced him earlier in the year but only compiled five hits in their 21 at-bats.
I don't think he will pitch deep into the game, but the Dodgers bullpen has been lights out the entire postseason. The Mets will also be ultra-aggressive with their higher-leverage arms tonight, realizing they cannot afford to fall behind 3-1 in the series.
I am fading Quintana's strikeouts, but that does not automatically correlate to poor pitching. He should continue to rely on painting the lower portion of the zone while generating ground balls and weaker contact from the Dodger lineup.
Mets vs Dodgers Parlay Leg 3
Jose Quintana Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Quintana has been outstanding for the Mets in his last two starts, and he's come up clutch when the ball club needs him. He's recorded six and five strikeouts the previous two times, but I will sell high on his strikeout prop tonight.
It is no surprise that the Dodgers lineup has seen Quintana a lot in the past, given the veteran's long big-league career. In 154 plate appearances, the Dodgers hitters have only struck out 21% of the time against him.
Quintana's strikeout, whiff, and chase rates are well below the MLB average — he's turning into a weak-contact and ground-ball pitcher. Besides their history against Quintana, the Dodgers average around eight strikeouts per game, which ranks in the lower half of all MLB teams.
My only concern is that we've had some pitcher-friendly umpires appear throughout the postseason, as many pitchers are soaring over their strikeout prop totals. But there are a few key factors to consider when approaching tonight's game for the Mets.
First, any sign of early trouble from Quintana will force Manager Carlos Mendoza to get him out of the game as soon as possible, considering the Mets are not in the position to fall behind in the series 3-1. Secondly, Quintana understands that his team needs a lift after using a lot of arms out of the pen, which could force him to pitch even more contact-friendly than average.
Given the circumstances, I will sell high on Quintana's strikeout prop and fade him here. I'd be surprised if he lasts longer than five innings, as I am sure Mendoza will be ready to deploy high-leverage arms as soon as possible.
