With just three games on the schedule today, we have one of the shortest slates of the year thus far. One of the games brings us to the nation’s capital, where the Nationals will be hosting the Mets.
The Mets were one of the hottest teams at the plate in June, and they'll look to continue that into July against MacKenzie Gore.
And that's where we begin my Mets vs Nationals MLB same game parlay for Monday, July 1.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Mets vs Nationals MLB Same Game Parlay (July 1)
- MacKenzie Gore Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-165)
- David Peterson Over 1.5 Walks (-205)
- CJ Abrams Over 0.5 Hits (-215)
- Mark Vientos Over 0.5 Hits (-190)
Parlay Odds: +415 (DraftKings)
MacKenzie Gore
Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-165)
Gore is one of the MLB's ascending young pitchers. In his third season, the 25-year old has career-lows in ERA (3.60), xERA (3.79), walk rate (7.5%) and hard-hit rate (35.3%) and a career-high 26.6% strikeout rate.
He enters this start having struck out seven or more batters in six of his last 10 starts. However, he has a tough assignment tonight.
In June, the Mets slashed .290/.363/.517, which led to them averaging 6.4 runs per game, second-most in the MLB. The Mets are also averaging 5.7 runs per game on the road this season.
The Mets are hitting .267 against left-handed pitching this season and have also been tough to strike out, ranking 25th in strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers on the year.
A few notable pitchers that have gone under their strikeout lines against the Mets of late include Dylan Cease, Shota Imanaga, Gerrit Cole, Luis Gil and Framber Valdez, with Imanaga and Valdez being lefties.
Meanwhile, Gore had a 5.13 ERA in June and allowed four earned runs or more in three of five starts last month. That stretch began back on June 3, when he allowed five earned runs against the Mets in a game also at Nationals Park.
In that start, he struck out just two batters in 4 1/3 innings. He's had seven strikeouts in just one of his last four starts against the Mets, averaging just 4.3 in that span.
Gore has gone under this line in five of seven starts when allowing three runs or more this season. He has a 4.30 ERA with 45 strikeouts in 44 innings in night games compared to a 2.85 ERA with 54 strikeouts in 41 innings in day games.
As you can see, there's a correlation between Gore pitching well and racking up strikeouts. If the Mets get to him tonight, he likely doesn't have seven strikeouts.
David Peterson
Over 1.5 Walks
The Mets went 16-7 in June, and David Peterson was a beneficiary as he won three of his four starts last month.
He was also in line for a win last Tuesday against the Yankees, but he pitched just 4 1/3 innings. Peterson got up to 103 pitches in part because he had walked five batters.
Despite their recent struggles, the Yankees have a difficult lineup to navigate, and they lead the MLB in walks.
On paper, Peterson has a better matchup tonight, as Washington ranks 22nd in walks overall and 26th in walk rate against left-handed pitchers.
However, Peterson walked two batters in 6 2/3 innings against the Nationals last month. He's now walked two or more batters in each of his last four starts.
With a 10.7% walk rate, Peterson ranks in the 19th percentile of qualified pitchers. He's had a walk rate of 10% or higher in each of his five MLB seasons.
That means the longer Peterson works, the more likely he is to walk multiple batters.
His outs recorded line is 17.5 tonight, so he's projected to go six innings. Though he worked into the seventh inning in his last start against the Nationals, his second walk came in the sixth inning.
I expect Peterson to have two walks in five or six innings tonight.
CJ Abrams & Mark Vientos
Over 0.5 Hits
Last season, CJ Abrams had a 3.2 WAR, and he's already at 3.4 this season. Abrams had a rough month of May as he hit just .205, but his breakout season appears to be back on track after a hot June.
Abrams hit .373 with 10 doubles, four home runs, 16 runs batted in and a 1.127 OPS last month. Over the last two weeks, he's upped those numbers to a .462 average and 1.306 OPS.
Abrams has recorded a hit in 55 of 74 games this season, 12 of his last 15 games and 10 of his last 14 games against the Mets.
Often batting leadoff this season, Abrams is averaging 4.4 plate appearances per game. With those chances, he's often closer to the -270-300 range to record a hit, so there's a bit of value with him being -215 on DraftKings tonight.
That may because he's facing a left-hander pitcher. However, he's hitting .313 against left-handers this season, and he's 2-for-9 against Peterson.
Mark Vientos is also facing a left-hander tonight in Gore, which he's likely excited about. In 53 at-bats against left-handers this season, Vientos is hitting .358 with a 1.103 OPS. Four of his 10 home runs this season have come against left-handers as well.
He also homered against Gore in last month's series.
Vientos has a hit in five of his last six games and seven of his last nine games against the Nationals. Over his last 10 games, he's had four multi-hit games while Abrams has had six.
If you want a little more juice, taking each for two total bases ups the odds to +1100 on DraftKings.
