The Minnesota Twins have won seven of their last ten games and will look to win a fifth straight against the Chicago Cubs, who are 6-4 in their last ten games.
If it weren't for a bullpen meltdown on Saturday, Chicago would have swept a four-game series over the Cardinals. Instead, three of four wins will have to do, as the Twins come into town looking to zap any momentum gained from this weekend's series.
Let's dive into the latest MLB odds and get to my Twins vs Cubs prediction for Monday's interleague opener at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois.
Twins vs Cubs Odds
| Minnesota Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-122 | 7.5 -118o / -102u | -1.5 +136 |
| Chicago Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+102 | 7.5 -118o / -102u | +1.5 -162 |
Twins vs Cubs Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP David Festa (MIN) | Stat | RHP Kyle Hendricks (CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | W-L | 3-9 |
| -0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.2 |
| 6.98/5.58 | ERA /xERA | 6.86/5.06 |
| 5.81/3.87 | FIP / xFIP | 5.37/4.44 |
| 1.40 | WHIP | 1.48 |
| 5.3 | K-BB% | 2.3 |
| 29.3 | GB% | 44.1 |
| 105 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 101 | Location+ | 104 |
Twins vs Cubs Betting Preview
Minnesota Twins Betting Preview: Festa Impressive Under the Hood
The Twins just swept the White Sox, which isn't really a shocker these days, but they now find themselves just 4.5 games behind the first-place Guardians in the AL Central.
Rookie right-hander David Festa, a top-100 prospect, who has pitched in just four MLB games, will take the ball for the Twins. After allowing 12 runs in his first two MLB starts, Festa held the Mets and Phillies to three runs in nine innings, adding 13 strikeouts, showing off his strong strikeout prowess.
Festa's surface-level numbers don't stand out, with a 6.89 ERA and 5.91 FIP. Though, I believe Festa has more to unpack than the numbers say. His fastball is electric and his strikeout stuff popping this early is quite impressive in 19 innings.
The one thing the Twins have done is hit at an elite level. Since July 1, the Twins have posted a robust 125 wRC+, ranking sixth in MLB with the sixth-highest SLG and third-best base percentage. Sure, the Twins offense looked elite versus the 28-win White Sox, but they have one of the best offenses in the sport, regardless of opponent.
Minnesota has maintained an elite offense, even with three All-Star caliber hitters, Byron Buxton (whose status looks murky on Monday), Royce Lewis, and Carlos Correa (on the injured list), all missing time on the injured list. Some teams couldn't survive losing one 150+ wRC+ player, but that's been a regular occurrence in the Twin Cities.
So, why's that the case? Jose Miranda and Matt Wallner have become reliable cogs in the Twins' lineup, posting wRC+s above 200 over the past month. Plus, Willi Castro, Max Kepler, and Trevor Larnach have been huge pieces in the Twins lineup when facing righty pitching, while Kepler and Larnach rarely play against southpaws.
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview: The Fall of Hendricks
On the Cubs side, I have to say one thing firmly: Kyle Hendricks is bad. I'm not trying to be a hypocrite here since Festa's numbers aren't gaudy, either. The difference is that Festa flashes upper 90s velocity and great strikeout numbers, while Hendricks pitches to a 6.86 ERA and 5.37 FIP with a mid-80s fastball that contributes to his 6.33 K/9
It's the twilight of Hendricks's career. He's the lone holdover from the Cubs' only World Series-winning team ever, and he's getting paid a lot, so the team probably feels a connection to him and want his career to end on his terms. While that's totally fair, Hendricks is actively hurting the Cubs chances of winning in 2024.
Since returning from the All-Star break, the Cubs' offense has been among the worst in MLB, posting an 83 wRC+. They just haven't hit well lately, batting .222 with a .285 OBP, which ranks 26th in MLB since July 18, and stringing together rallies is tough when runners don't reach base.
Just three qualified Cubs hitters own a 100+ wRC+ in that span, led by Seiya Suzuki's 163 wRC+, Michael Busch's 103 wRC+ and Dansby Swanson sneaking in at 100 on the dot.
I won't be entirely negative here: Cody Bellinger has added a 206 wRC+ in 21 ABs since returning, but he doesn't qualify, so I excluded him from the above list. Plus, Isaac Paredes is another improvement for the Cubs at third base. He hasn't hit well in Chicago, going 3-for-23 in his first week with the team, so we'll see when the All-Star starts hitting again.
Twins vs Cubs Prediction, Analysis
I'm fading Hendricks here, and the numbers back it up. Chicago is 5-20 in games Hendricks has appeared in this year, so it's had very little success when Hendricks takes the bump.
Sure, some of that is just weird things happening in MLB, and fault can't fall exclusively on Hendricks. But when he's not pitching well, it's tough for the Cubs inconsistent offense to creep back into the game.
Prediction: I'll take the Twins moneyline at -120, as the slight favorite, which I think is probably a little low since Minnesota is clearly better and I like Festa's upside.
Moneyline
My thoughts on the moneyline are above. It's my official player for the game, and the Twins have a solid chance at continuing to ruin the spirit of Chicago-based baseball teams.
Run Line (Spread)
The run line here is interesting. I don't trust Festa enough (yet) to take the Twins -1.5 here, and I also can't back Hendricks in any capacity. It'll be a pass on the run line for those reasons.
Over/Under
Who would I to bet on the over with the wind blowing in at Wrigley? Not a wise individual, that's who I'd be. According to Action Pro the under is a great play, since the under hits at a 60% clip in home games at Wrigley with the wind blowing in with the total ranging from 8-13. The pitching matchup isn't great, but runs could be hard to come by with wind killing fly balls. I'll go on the under 8.5 runs here.
