Check out our MLB best bets, picks and predictions for the 12-game slate on Thursday, September 19.
The MLB season is winding down, which means the postseason races are heating up. Several games on today's schedule have postseason implications, but our MLB betting experts have already looked over today's MLB odds, so all you need to do is keep reading and dive into today's MLB best bets, which include picks and predictions for Diamondbacks vs Brewers.
MLB Best Bets, Picks and Predictions for Thursday, 9/19
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:15 p.m. | |
  | 1:05 p.m. | |
| 1:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tony Sartori's Giants vs Orioles Best Bet: Back Baltimore
By Tony Sartori
There are an abundance of advantages that the Baltimore Orioles possess in this matchup, starting with the pitching matchup of Logan Webb versus Zach Eflin. The latter outranks Webb in WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
There is an even bigger disparity between these lineups. Baltimore paces San Francisco in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.
Finally, the Orioles will play this game on their home diamond, where they possess a win percentage north of 55%. On the other hand, San Francisco's road win percentage hovers south of the 44% mark. Back the Orioles to win by at least two runs and bet this down to +150.
Pick: Orioles -1.5 (+158)
D.J. James' Giants vs Orioles Best Bet: Under Shows Value
By D.J. James
Logan Webb is an excellent ground-ball pitcher. He has a 3.53 ERA and an xERA above 4.00, but his ground-ball rate ranks in the 95th percentile, which is why he's the ace of the Giants’ staff. Like other ground-ball pitchers, he allows hard contact, but as long as the ball is on the ground, he'll be effective. He is also fewer than seven innings away from 200 on the season. His chase rate is well above average, and he can limit walks.
His opponent will be Zach Eflin and the Baltimore Orioles. Eflin has a 3.55 ERA and a 3.41 xERA. He can also limit hard contact and keep the ball on the ground. Additionally, he excels in getting hitters to chase.
Now, the key here is that both the Giants and Orioles have struggled at the plate against righties. The Giants have a 90 wRC+, a 7.1% walk rate and a 28.1% strikeout rate against righties over the past month.
The Orioles have a 91 wRC+, a 9.6% walk rate and a 23.6% strikeout rate in the past month against righties.
Both bullpens should also be able to pull their weight.
So, bet Under 7.5 and play it down to 7.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-110)
Nick Martin's Diamondbacks vs Brewers Best Bet: D-backs Moneyline
By Nick Martin
It’s possible the Brewers won’t be at their best on Thursday night after they celebrated clinching the NL Central on Wednesday. Whether or not that narrative actually means anything, the Diamondbacks provide a brutal matchup for Tobias Myers — and Milwaukee may also not field its best lineup.
Since the All-Star break, Arizona owns a league-leading wRC+ of 134, as well as a league-leading wRC+ of 136 against right-handed pitchers. It also holds the best BB/K ratio in that span, and ranks eighth in hard-hit rate.
The Brewers handed Brandon Pfaadt the worst outing of his career on September 14, but they still been the less productive unit overall. In the second half, Milwaukee ranks 14th in wRC+ and 14th against right-handed pitching.
Myers has allowed a 41% hard-hit rate since August 1, though he has a 3.89 xFIP. He owns a Stuff+ rating of just 91 this season, which correlates with his low whiff and strikeout rates.
Pfaadt continues to underachieve his xERA and strong Stuff+ and Pitching+ ratings. Perhaps we've reached the point where it’s more than simply bad luck with runners on base for Pfaadt.
Still, Pfaadt’s 3.63 xFIP and 10.04 strikeouts per nine over his last 40 and 1/3 innings are encouraging figures. Pfaadt looks to be far closer to Myers than their current ERAs suggest.
Given the spot and how much more productive the Diamondbacks lineup has been, I see value in backing Arizona at -120 or better on the moneyline.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline (-120 or better)
