The MLB regular season is still in full swing. Our staff of baseball betting analysts have four MLB Best Bets and predictions for Friday, September 6, including three moneyline underdogs and a player prop for Nationals vs Pirates, White Sox vs Red Sox, Diamondbacks vs Astros and Guardians vs Dodgers.
MLB Best Bets & Friday Props, Predictions (9-6)
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from the Friday slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB best bet.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:10 p.m. | |
  | 10:10 p.m. | |
  | 6:40 p.m. | |
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Nick Martin's Nationals vs Pirates Best Bet: Bounce Back Behind Herz
By Nick Martin
The Nationals will look to respond to an ugly loss in the series opener, in which the Pirates took advantage of a soft starter in Jake Irvin to win 9-4.
Washington should have a better chance of earning a win on Friday as DJ Herz makes his 16th appearance of the season. The 23-year-old lefty has pitched to a 3.38 xERA and 3.65 xFIP across 62 1/3 innings of work this season. He strikes out almost 30% of batters faced while holding them to a hard-hit rate under 35%.
The Pirates lineup has struggled against left-handed pitching recently. Since June 1st, they hold a wRC+ of 88 against lefties and have struck out 27.1% of the time. They own a 29th-ranked BB/K in that span and hold a 25th-ranked hard-hit rate.
Washington's lineup has lost some key pieces, but it has recently achieved respectable splits against righties. Over the last month, it holds a wRC+ of 112 against RHP, with the second-lowest strikeout rate and a fourth-ranked BB/K ratio during the stretch.
Pirates starter Luis Ortiz has quality stuff and is a promising arm moving forward. He has overachieved his 4.09 xERA and 4.71 xFIP considerably this season, though, and could be closer to Herz than their current respective ERAs suggest.
The Pirates bullpen has struggled to a 5.49 ERA over the last month, while the Nationals relief staff has a 4.11 ERA. Washington's staff has been slightly better all season long.
At anything better than -105, there is value in backing the Nationals to take this matchup
Pick: Nationals ML (+100) | Play to ML (-105)
- Bet Pirates vs Nationals with the latest BetMGM bonus code.
| | | |
D.J. James's White Sox vs Red Sox Best Bet: The Shocking Underdog Prediction & Pick
By D.J. James
The Chicago White Sox are among the worst teams in history, but Davis Martin's pitching against the slumping Boston Red Sox could present some unusual value for them to win outright.
Martin owns a 3.62 ERA with an above-average batted ball profile (hard-hit rate allowed, avg. exit velocity allowed, ground-ball rate allowed). He's occasionally struggled with walks, but he's been reliable enough for the White Sox to give him a second look.
Nick Piveta is fine. He has a 4.53 ERA and 3.71 xERA. He has a slightly worse batted-ball profile than Martin, and he ranks in just the second percentile among qualified pitchers in ground-ball rate, allowing a ton of hard-hit fly balls. He has an excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio, but he's far from perfect.
The White Sox own a 91 wRC+, 6.1% walk rate, and 21.2% strikeout rate in the last month against righties.
With those parameters in place, the Red Sox have a 93 wRC+, 8.1% walk rate, and 26% strikeout rate.
In relief, Chicago has a 4.00 xFIP, 24.7% strikeout and 10.9% walk rate.
Boston has a 4.22 xFIP, 20.8% strikeout, and 7.1% walk rate.
Chicago is shockingly comparable in this matchup. Martin can pitch as well as Pivetta, and hopefully, the White Sox will score enough runs.
Pick: White Sox ML (+240) | Play to ML (+195)
- Maximize your White Sox vs Red Sox action with our BetRivers promo code.
| | | |
Cody Goggin's Diamondbacks vs Astros Best Bet: White-Hot Snakes
By Cody Goggin
Framber Valdez and the Houston Astros will take on Brandon Pfaadt and the Diamondbacks in Minute Maid Park on Friday.
Valdez has been a reliable starter again this year, throwing 150 1/3 innings with a 3.11 ERA and a 3.40 xERA.
But I don’t believe his adversary, Brandon Pfaadt, is too far behind. Pfaadt owns a Stuff+ of 107 and Location+ of 106. This has helped him post a 4.32 ERA with a 3.53 xERA, 3.73 SIERA, and 3.48 FIP. With these good Stuff+ numbers, Pfaadt ranks in just the 54th percentile in strikeout rate, but his 5.1% walk rate ranks in the 91st percentile.
Pfaadt has been around league average in terms of contact quality allowed. He ranks in the 61st percentile in barrel rate allowed, 46th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, and 53rd percentile in ground-ball rate.
He will face an arduous task tonight as Houston’s offense ranks eighth in wRC+ and 11th in wOBA this season. They strike out at the third-lowest rate in MLB but also walk at the fourth-lowest rate, so we should see plenty of balls in play in this matchup. Houston ranks 16th in hard-hit rate, 15th in barrel rate, 15th in average exit velocity, and 12th in ground ball rate this season.
But, the offense has also cooled off in the second half, as the Astros rank just 14th in wRC+ over this timeframe.
Meanwhile, Arizona has been the league's hottest offense since the All-Star break. In the second half, the Snakes lead MLB in wRC+, wOBA, AVG, and SLG. For the season, they rank fourth in wRC+ and second in wOBA. They are also third in wRC+ this season against lefties, so I don’t have any qualms about backing them tonight.
Arizona’s offense has been excellent this season and is underrated overall. Brandon Pfaadt is a good starting pitcher and has pitched better than his results show this season.
With comparable starting pitchers, I like taking the better offense as an underdog in this matchup, so I’ll take Arizona at +150 on the full-game moneyline.
Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+150)
- Before wagering on Diamondbacks vs Astros, unlock bonus bets using Action’s BetRivers promo code.
| | | |
Tony Sartori's Guardians vs Dodgers Best Bet: The MLB Player Prop Pick & Prediction
By Tony Sartori
The Cleveland Guardians hand the ball to left-hander Matthew Boyd on Friday evening, and he should be a strong candidate to back.
Boyd boasts a 2.38 ERA and 0.84 WHIP through four starts this season.
While that is a small sample size, his underlying metrics are promising. If he officially qualified, Boyd would rank in the league's top half in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate and barrel rate.
Specifically, we will back the southpaw in the strikeout prop market, as he also ranks in the top half of the league in whiff and strikeout rates. His strikeout prop is currently at 4.5, which is a doable total, considering that Boyd is averaging five strikeouts per start this season thus far.
This strikeout department success will likely continue against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Through 45 combined career plate appearances against Boyd, this current Dodgers lineup possesses a fade-worthy 28.9% strikeout rate and 29.8% whiff rate.
Pick: Matthew Boyd Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)
- Maximize your Matthew Boyd, Guardians vs Dodgers action with our DraftKings promo code.
| | | |
