With all 30 teams in action on August 14, our MLB staff came through with four MLB Best Bets and predictions for Wednesday night.
Amongst our MLB Best Bets for Wednesday are four picks for Pirates vs Padres, Astros vs Rays, and Braves vs Giants.
MLB Best Bets & Predictions for Wednesday Night
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from the Wednesday slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB best bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 9:45 p.m. | |
  | 4:10 p.m. | |
  | 6:50 p.m. | |
| 6:50 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tony Sartori's Pirates vs Padres Best Bet: Fade Martin Perez & the Bucs
By Tony Sartori
You can look at this matchup one of two ways. Either you favor San Diego's hitting advantage, or you favor Pittsburgh's pitching advantage.
At +118, I will back the team with the better starting pitcher, in Mitch Keller. Through 23 starts this season, Keller is 10-6 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally strong as the right-hander ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. This success is likely to continue against San Diego, a team that Keller is 2-1 against over the past three meetings with a commanding 1.02 ERA.
Meanwhile, Martin Perez takes the mound for the Padres. He is 2-5 through 18 starts this year with a fade-worthy 4.78 ERA and 1.51 WHIP.
The southpaw's analytics are even worse as he possesses a 5.50 xERA and ranks in the 20th percentile or lower in xBA, strikeout rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Pick: Pirates ML (+118 | Play to +110)
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D.J. James's Astros vs Rays Best Bet: Ronel Blanco the Revelation
By D.J. James
Ronel Blanco has been a revelation for the Houston Astros. He has pitched like an ace and is helping keep the Astros in contention for a playoff spot. Blanco holds a 3.02 ERA and 4.04 xERA. He should experience some negative regression at some point, mainly due to not keeping the ball on the ground and having a tendency to issue walks. Still, he has an above-average Hard-Hit Rate and strikeout rate as he takes on a struggling Tampa Bay Rays lineup.
The Rays will throw Zack Littell on Wednesday. He has been a nice fixture in Tampa Bay’s rotation. His 4.12 ERA is a little lower than his xERA of 4.41. His Average Exit Velocity is similar to Blanco’s, but Littell has a higher Hard-Hit Rate. Littell rarely walks anyone, but there isn't much swing-and-miss in his arsenal.
Houston’s lineup has hit righties pretty well lately. In the last month, the Astros have a 106 wRC+, 6.8% walk rate, and 21.3% strikeout rate.
Meanwhile, the Rays have a 92 wRC+, 9.1% walk rate, and 26.1% strikeout rate. Sure, they might be able to work the count and thus, force Blanco to accrue pitches, but he will be able to strike out much of this batting order.
Tampa Bay’s relief staff has been elite in the last month with a combined 3.22 xFIP against Houston’s 4.22. However, Houston should have a few reliable options available behind Blanco.
Pick: Astros ML (-120 | Play to -140)
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Nick Martin's Astros vs Rays Best Bet: Can Blanco Return to Form?
By Nick Martin
In four outings since the All-Star break, Ronel Blanco has failed to record a quality start, and pitched to an ERA of 5.68 in 19 innings of work. He holds an xFIP of 3.61 in that span, struck out 12.32 batters per nine, and featured pitch velocities which remain on par with his season averages.
There's still a case to be made that Blanco offers a slight edge over Rays starter Zack Littell in this matchup. Blanco holds a far superior 2024 ERA of 2.98 compared to Littell's mark of 4.06 and is still outperforming Littell in terms of xERA this season. Blanco owns a Pitching+ rating of 98, while Littell holds a Pitching+ rating of 99.
You can debate which of these starters is likely to finish the season in better form, but it's pretty clear which of the two is facing the tougher lineup in this game.
The Astros have hit to a 14th-ranked wRC+ against right-handed pitching since July 1st, while the Rays rank 26th.
Houston has been a top-ten side in terms of effectiveness versus sliders this season (6.0 wSlider runs above average), which is noteworthy versus Littell, who has thrown sliders at the third-highest rate among AL starters this season.
So while it has been an ugly stretch of results from Blanco, -120 still looks like a good price to Houston completing the sweep Wednesday in this matchup given its more formidable lineup.
Pick: Astros ML (-130)
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Alex Kolodziej's Braves vs Giants Best Bet: Braves are a Reliable Under Bet
Not only have the Braves been the best 'under' bet in baseball, but Wednesday's game is played at one of the worst parks in baseball for both runs and home runs.
Starting pitchers Grant Holmes and Robbie Ray also fit a particular trend labeled "High-Strikeout Pitchers," a PRO System with a solid 57% win rate to the under. But there's a kicker: This angle is only good if the total is 8 or more.
Wednesday's Braves-Giants total varies from 7.5 to 8 in the early market. Grab the latter price and check out all of PRO Systems' situational trends applying to Wednesday's card.
Pick: Under 8 (-108 | Play to -110)
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