We have a full MLB schedule to work with in the betting landscape on Tuesday.
So, with that in mind, here's four MLB best bets, picks and predictions for Tuesday, August 20. We're helping you find the best value on the MLB odds board.
MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, August 20
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:05 p.m. | |
  | 7:45 p.m. | |
| 7:45 p.m. | |
  | 9:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tony Sartori's Guardians vs Angels Best Bet: Back This Pitcher
By Tony Sartori
New York hands the ball to right-hander Luis Gil, who still has an outside shot of winning AL Rookie of the Year. He's been brilliant this season, posting a 12-6 record with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP through 23 starts.
His underlying metrics are equally dominant as Gil ranks in the 71st percentile in xERA and 91st percentile in xBA. Specifically, we're going to back the rookie in the prop market as he ranks in the 77th percentile in whiff rate and 84th percentile in strikeout rate.
You can currently find his strikeout prop at 5.5, a total Gil has surpassed in five of his past six starts. He boasts a 2.81 ERA over that stretch.
While it's a small sample size, this current Cleveland lineup possesses a fade-worthy 28.6% strikeout rate and 37.5% whiff rate through seven combined career plate appearances against the right-hander.
Pick: Luis Gil Over 5.5 Strikeouts
D.J. James's Brewers vs Cardinals Best Bet: This 'Dog Has An Edge
By D.J. James
Erick Fedde hasn't looked his best in a St. Louis Cardinals uniform. He has a 5.63 ERA over 16 innings, and he'll be facing the division-rival Milwaukee Brewers on Tuesday.
Fedde has a 3.40 ERA and sub-4.00 xERA on the year, but his xwOBA is .330 in his three Cardinals starts. He's also striking out fewer batters than he had with the Chicago White Sox.
Fedde’s opponent on Tuesday will be Frankie Montas. Montas has a comparable .332 xwOBA in August, but he's striking out 26.7% of batters against Fedde’s 17.9% mark.
On the season, Montas has struggled with hard contact, but he's at least missing bats at a high clip again for the Brew Crew.
Hitting is the larger gap between these two teams. In the last month, Milwaukee has a 110 wRC+ off of righties with an 8.1% walk rate and 25% strikeout rate.
St. Louis has a 93 wRC+ against righties in the last month, with a 6.8% walk rate and 19.2% strikeout rate.
In relief, the Brewers have been great, with a 3.55 xFIP, 25.6% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate.
St. Louis’ relief staff owns a 4.15 xFIP, 19.7% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate.
Milwaukee has a major edge in hitting and relief over the Cardinals. Montas has been comparable to Fedde in August, so ride that wave.
Take Milwaukee from +114 to -110.
Pick: Brewers +114
Alex Kolodziej's Brewers vs Cardinals Best Bet: Target This Under 8
We continue with this NL Central affair, and it's a play on the under in this duel.
Busch Stadium is one of the worst parks for homers this year, which benefits a fly-ball pitcher like Fedde.
Plus, another factor here is a PRO System centered around weather.
The system known as “Wind Blowing In” prompts betting under for MLB games if the wind blows inward and the over/under is set from six to 11, leading to a win 55% of the time.
At 7.5, bet the under at +105 or better. At 8.5, bet under -130 or cheaper
Pick: Under 8
Cody Goggin's Twins vs Padres Best Bet: First Five Innings Target
By Cody Goggin
Tonight, the Minnesota Twins and San Diego Padres will take the mound as Bailey Ober and Martin Perez face off.
The Twins are favored but only at -112, which is surprising giving the imbalance of this pitching matchup.
Perez has been one of the worst starters in the league this year. He has a 4.62 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP with a 5.44 xERA. Perez ranks in the 20th percentile in strikeout rate and 12th percentile in whiff rate.
He's been hit hard this season, ranking in the 17th percentile in hard-hit rate, 20th percentile in barrel rate and 44th percentile in average exit velocity. Perez doesn’t have good stuff, ranking in the 10th percentile in fastball velocity and posting a Stuff+ of 72.
This season, Ober has a 3.49 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP with a 3.36 xERA. He ranks in the 76th percentile in both whiff rate and walk rate despite only an 18th-percentile fastball velocity. Ober ranks in the 73rd percentile in walk rate as he doesn't issue many free passes either.
Ober ranks in the 71st percentile in hard-hit rate and 79th percentile in average exit velocity. His main weakness is he doesn't generate much contact on the ground, ranking in the 39th percentile in barrel rate and ninth percentile in ground-ball rate.
Ober will have a tough task facing the Padres’ offense as San Diego is fourth in wRC+ and eighth in wOBA. Perez will have a matchup of equal difficulty, however, as Minnesota ranks sixth and seventh in these categories respectively.
The Twins are even seventh in wRC+ against left-handers, so this line isn’t because of a platoon issue either.
