There are 11 games and 22 MLB teams in action today, Thursday August 29.
There are numerous MLB odds to sift through and plenty of enticing options, but some specific bets stood out to our MLB betting experts. On that note, let's get to our MLB best bets and Thursday picks for Padres vs Cardinals and Mets vs Diamondbacks on Thursday, August 29.
MLB Best Bets & Thursday Picks (8/29)
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from the Thursday slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB best bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 2:15 p.m. | |
  | 3:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tony Sartori's Padres vs Cardinals Best Bet: Target the Run Line
By Tony Sartori
This is the second game of this series in which the line genuinely makes no sense to me. San Diego is the superior team in every facet of this matchup.
The starting pitchers will be Michael King for the Padres and Sonny Gray for St. Louis. King paces Gray in ERA, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, San Diego's bullpen outranks the Cardinals' in both FIP and xFIP.
That leaves the hitting, another advantage for the Padres. San Diego outranks St. Louis in runs per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.
The only "advantage" the Cardinals could possess is playing this game in St. Louis. With that said, San Diego's road win percentage is higher than St. Louis' home win percentage.
Considering these variables, I project the Padres winning by two or more runs to be more likely than +155 odds suggest.
Pick: Padres -1.5 (+155)
| |
William Boor's Mets vs Diamondbacks Best Bet: Regression Looming for Peterson
By William Boor
The Diamondbacks have the best offense in baseball and are averaging 5.33 runs per game. Mets starter David Peterson has a 2.85 ERA, but a 5.28 xERA, which is in the bottom 6% of MLB.
In a matchup between an elite offense and a subpar pitcher, I'm backing the offense and betting the Diamondbacks moneyline.
Peterson is due for some major regression that could come to fruition against a hot Arizona team. In addition to the elevated xERA, Peterson ranks in the 11th percentile in xBA (.276), the 16th percentile in strikeout rate and the 14th percentile in hard-hit rate.
Nothing about those numbers suggests he should be 8-1 with a 2.85 ERA. Peterson has been flirting with disaster this season and I think the Diamondbacks will exploit him on Thursday afternoon.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline (-116)
| |
