Fresh off the second-lowest scoring day of the MLB season, we've got a busy Wednesday slate that includes a handful of day games — and a doubleheader between the Reds and Braves.
I'm here to give you as much information as possible regarding potential avenues for batting props for the upcoming Wednesday slate. A side note: I did not include any of the games in the early windows.
This article will have several parts. The first is the historical matchups between the projected starting pitcher and opposing hitters. I'll also break down the game where we're expecting the biggest boost in home runs because of the weather and end with a little recap of which hitters are the hottest entering the week.
Let's dive into my MLB betting preview for hitter props on Wednesday, July 24.
MLB Betting Preview: Hitter Props for Wednesday (July 24)
Notable Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups:
20+ Plate Appearances
Enrique Hernandez vs. Robbie Ray (LHP): Ray makes his season debut — and Giants debut — post-Tommy John on Wednesday and is welcomed with a brutal matchup against the Dodgers. Hernandez has 65 plate appearances against Ray, hitting .259 with five home runs. He has also walked 10 times (.369 OBP). Over 70% of his hits against the southpaw have gone for extra bases. For what it's worth, Wednesday happens to be Hernandez's bobblehead day at Dodger Stadium — make of that what you will.
J.D. Martinez & Francisco Lindor vs. Gerrit Cole (RHP): Veterans Martinez and Lindor have logged 54 and 26 plate appearances against Cole, respectively. Both have struggled immensely, with Martinez batting just .174. The one plus — 5-of-8 hits have gone for extra bases (2 HRs). As for Lindor, the switch-hitting shortstop is hitting just .174 — of his four hits, three have gone for extra bases.
Eugenio Suarez vs. Michael Wacha (RHP): Suarez gets a great matchup against Wacha. While he has just one home run against the right-hander, Suarez is hitting .382 across 34 at-bats.
Under 20 Plate Appearances:
Nathaniel Lowe & Adolis Garcia vs. Chris Flexen (RHP): These middle-of-the-order Ranger bats have both faced Flexen 21 times. Both have found plenty of success against the right-hander, with Lowe hitting .300 and Garcia .316. Each has two home runs apiece.
Luis Rengifo & Anthony Rendon vs. Luis Castillo (RHP): Who has the second-most home runs against a pitcher on today’s slate you ask? That’d be Rengifo. Some may say Ren-HE-fo. OK, I’ll stop. Rengifo is 5-for-17 (.294) in his career vs. Castillo with three home runs. As for Rendon, he's 5-for-12 with a pair of home runs. He’s also walked five times (.588 OBP).
Aaron Judge vs. Sean Manaea (LHP): Are we really surprised here? Judge is 6-for-13 lifetime against Manaea with a pair of home runs. He’s walked three times — which could be his statline tonight once again. It doesn’t seem like the Mets are interested in pitching to him.
Matt Olson vs. Nick Martinez (RHP): In Game 2 of the doubleheader, Nick Martinez takes the mound as an opener. Olson may only see him once so proceed with caution, but he is 4-for-13 with a pair of home runs in his lifetime vs. the righty.
Alex Bregman vs. JP Sears (LHP): Bregman has faced Sears 15 times in his career and has definitely won the battle. The righty has a .357 average with a pair of home runs. He took Sears deep in early May.
Sub-10 Plate Appearance Notes:
I find these fun more than anything.
Mark Vientos has gotten the best of Gerrit Cole in four career at-bats. The rookie third baseman is 3-for-4 with two home runs.
Teoscar Hernandez has just six at-bats against Robbie Ray, but he has two home runs and a .500 average to show for.
The last name I’ll throw out there with success in a limited sample: Marcell Ozuna, who is 4-for-8 with a double and two home runs against the aforementioned Nick Martinez as well.
Highest Expected Home Run Boost Due to Weather
I am excluding the early start games here for shelf-life purposes. If you were wondering, the Phillies vs. Twins game has the best environment in terms of expected home run boost today (+20.9%).
But we’re heading out to Washington, where RotoGrinders’ WeatherEdge projects a +10.9% home run increase based on a 154-game sample. We should expect some precipitation in 80-degree weather with the wind blowing 4 mph out to left-center field.
Mitchell Parker takes the mound for the Nationals — the southpaw has been a solid rotational piece in his rookie season (3.99 xFIP, 4.08 xERA). He isn’t an overpowering arm, struggling to generate strikeouts (20.1%). Despite strong command, Parker is barreled at an 8.5% rate (33rd percentile).
We have seen him struggle with the long ball in the past. He gave up three home runs against the Mets in early July. In general, he’s allowed at least one home run in 9-of-13 starts this season (69%).
Jurickson Profar (+630) has been a revelation for the Padres this season and remains No. 1 on the team against southpaws. He has a 180 wRC+ and a .208 ISO, and has a team-best six home runs against left-handed pitchers.
Manny Machado (+400) has been a plus hitter against lefties once again this season (113 wRC+, .167 ISO). One name I’ll throw out there that was most surprising to me — Kyle Higashioka (+480). The catcher has a 108 wRC+ against lefties and is second on the team in home runs (four). He has a .283 ISO.
Opposite Parker will be right-hander Matt Waldron. While he doesn’t generate many chases or whiffs, the one thing Waldron has been elite at is limiting hard contact (32.7%, 86th percentile). He is a fly-ball pitcher, so in windier conditions, he could be susceptible to home runs. He is above-average in barrel rate allowed (7%), too.
Taking a look at his recent form, though, there may be some value in the home run department. In his last four starts, Waldron has allowed a homer three times. Two of those have been multihomer games.
While Waldron doesn’t struggle against either side of the plate, left-handed hitters do have a slightly better slugging percentage (.401) than righties (.357).
Jesse Winker (+575) has been the Nationals' best hitter against right-handed pitchers (143 wRC+) while CJ Abrams is not too far behind (123). Abrams (+400), though, has found slightly more success in the power department and is first on the team in home runs against righties (12).
Who’s Hot?
As always, the rolling windows of hitters finding success will change as the week progresses. We have a new No. 1 in terms of rolling xwOBA leader over the last 50 plate appearances — Willy Adames!
Adames draws a matchup with left-hander Justin Steele on Wednesday. But be weary of this game — as my colleague Sean Zerillo pointed out, the wind is blowing in significantly. We know how much the Wrigley Field can knock down fly balls — or push pops into home runs. He projects 6.79 runs in this game.
Lawrence Butler remains red-hot at the plate despite dropping to No. 2. The rookie is now hitting .417 in July and fell a single short of the cycle last night against the Astros.
He’ll face right-hander Hunter Brown on Wednesday — a pitcher I am very high on. I’m not looking to fade Brown, who ranks in the 89th percentile in both barrels (4.8%) and hard-hit rate (32.1%).
I’m intrigued by Jorge Polanco, who draws a matchup against the lowly Griffin Canning. The Angels righty ranks in the bottom 20% of all pitchers in xBA (.271) and sports a career-worst 15.7% strikeout rate. He has allowed a home run in all but two starts since the month of May and in seven straight.
Polanco is a switch-hitter and while he’s struggled significantly this season, all his power has come against righties (.312 slugging vs. .237). Unfortunately, Julio Rodriguez landed on the injured list amid what finally seemed like his breakout.
I didn’t mention Xander Bogaerts in the earlier conversation about increased home runs, mostly because he hasn’t hit for power in some time. He made his return from injury and has been much improved this time around. While he has no extra-base hits, he is 10-for-25. If you’re looking to make a hit parlay with some players trending up, Bogaerts is not a bad option — he had a 118 wRC+ against southpaws last season.
