We went 2-1 yesterday on three somewhat heavily juiced picks, good enough for a 0.65-unit profit.
Let's keep that going tonight.
I have three MLB NRFI & YRFI model picks and predictions for Wednesday, July 24.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks | Model Predictions
Astros vs. A's
Starting Pitchers: Hunter Brown vs. JP Sears
My model likes the straight up YRFI here, which is priced as low as -105. However, I prefer attacking this a different way.
Based on full-season numbers, I already have the Astros as roughly twice as likely to score in the first inning than Oakland. A's lefty JP Sears has an ugly 5.78 xFIP his first time through the order, and Houston is a well above-average lineup against lefties — especially at the top.
The numbers on the other side are a bit misleading, due to the horrible start to the 2024 season from Hunter Brown. He had a 9.78 ERA at the end of April that he's since brought down to 4.14 with a 3.46 xERA.
If we threw the first month or so of the season out, I'd be projecting Oakland for a lot lower odds of scoring here, which is why I'm pivoting to the first inning moneyline — which, as always, is a half unit bet for me.
Angels vs. Mariners
Starting Pitchers: Griffin Canning vs. Luis Castillo
Another day, another Mariners NRFI. We've hit 11 of the last 12 we've taken, which is clearly good enough even at the somewhat heavy juice we have to pay.
All the reasons from yesterday remain true, as the Mariners' rotation is much better than their lineup and they play in the toughest park in baseball to score runs in. This one is slightly scary due to how bad Griffin Canning has been this year, but we're only asking for three outs from him.
On the other side, Luis Castillo has a 2.54 ERA his first time through the order and is taking on an Angels team that ranks 26th in wRC+ against righties.
The -130 line at BetMGM is an outlier, but I'd play this down to the -140 number available at DraftKings and Caesars.
Tigers vs. Guardians
Starting Pitchers: Jack Flaherty vs. Tanner Bibee
I have this game projected for the lowest chance of a first inning run on the board, thanks to even better starting pitching than in the Angels/Mariners game — enough to offset the slightly better offenses involved.
Both Jack Flaherty and Tanner Bibee have first-time-through-the-order ERAs in the 2.6 range, and both offenses are slightly below average against right-handed pitching.
I don't love paying the heavy juice here, so this one would make sense as a parlay piece. However, by the numbers, it's still projecting as a considerable edge at the -150 line available on DraftKings.
I'd consider pairing it with a relatively safe pick in another game (I like betting on heavy underdog starters not to record a win personally) to limit the juice, but I'll be counting the -150 on the official record.
