It was (another) 1-1 day the last time we were in the MLB NRFI streets a few days ago. We've got every team in MLB team in action on Friday night, so we should be able to find some value.
I have two MLB NRFI picks and predictions for Diamondbacks vs Astros and Mariners vs Cardinals on Friday, September, 6.
MLB NRFI Picks & Predictions for Friday, September 6
Billy Ward's Diamondbacks vs Astros NRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Brandon Pfaadt vs. Framber Valdez
For much of the year taking NRFIs when Arizona faces a lefty starter has been a bad idea. The Diamondbacks are tied for second in wRC+ against left handed pitching on the season, with a mark of 116.
However, much of that was riven by Ketel Marte, who still hasn't returned from injury. Their top three projected hitters today are all on the wrong side of their platoon splits against Framber Valdez, who holds a 2.45 first time through the order ERA.
On the other side, Pfaadt's 2.02 first time through the order ERA is less than half his overall mark, which suggests that the runs in this game are more likely to happen once he starts to tire.
With a total that's dropped to 7.5 after opening at 8.0, the -120 line is a strong price on the NRFI.
Ward's Mariners vs Cardinals NRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Bryce Miller vs. Erick Fedde
I was a bit surprised at my own projection in this one, which I have as considerably lower than the Astros/Diamondbacks game despite a similar game total.
Sure, the under on the 7.5 run total is a bit juiced, but it's more a factor of both team's offenses. Neither is especially strong at the top, with merely average numbers from hitters like Julio Rodriguez and Nolan Arenado who both teams were counting on to be better.
Plus, we have solid splits from both starters, with Miller holding a 2.49 first time through the order ERA and Fedde at 3.09. Throw in weather that reduces scoring by 9% based on similar conditions, and we have a solid NRFI case for this matchup.
