We ran into tough luck on Sunday and finished the weekend 3-3, but Monday's slate has plenty of opportunities for us to return to our winning ways.
With that said, let's dive into our top MLB player props for Monday, August 12.
Doug Ziefel's MLB Player Props for Monday, Aug. 12
- Andrew Abbott Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135, DraftKings)
- Pablo Lopez Under 18.5 Outs Recorded (-120, DraftKings)
- Luis Gil Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-115, bet365)
Cardinals vs Reds Player Props: Fade Andrew Abbott's Wipeout Stuff
Andrew Abbott's sophomore season in the big leagues has not gone as well as his rookie season. While his ERA is slightly better, the wipeout stuff we saw last year has not been.
Abbott's strikeout rate is down 7% from last year, and the lack of strikeouts has led to much more contact. That uptick in contact is bound to catch up with him as his barrel and groundball rates both rank in the bottom 20% of all qualified pitchers.
Those numbers point to why his xERA is significantly higher at 4.07. He'll face a Cardinals lineup that can jumpstart that regression on Monday. The Cardinals have started to hit lefties much better lately, as they rank 11th in wRC+ over the past 15 days. They also rank 18th in strikeout rate against lefties over that same span.
Overall, Abbott has not shown he can surpass this total this season. He has stayed under 5.5 strikeouts in 15 of his 23 starts, which gives us implied odds of -186 that he'll stay under on Monday.
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Royals vs Twins Player Props: Fade Pablo Lopez Against White-Hot Royals
Pablo Lopez is typically a pitcher that you want to back. He was one of the unluckiest pitchers in the first half, and all signs point to him having a great deal of positive regression.
However, he faces the Kansas City Royals on Monday, who are rolling. The Royals come into this matchup ranked sixth in wRC+ and eighth in OBP against righties over the last 15 days.
They also have the lowest strikeout rate against righties in the majors over the last month. Lopez is a guy who relies on strikeouts and flyballs to generate outs, but it's clear that is going to be a bad combination against this Royals lineup.
Aside from the matchup, the price on this under is incredible. Lopez stayed under 18.5 outs in 70% of his starts this season. That hit rate implies odds of -233, a substantial edge on the current price.
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Yankees vs White Sox Player Props: Bet Luis Gil Against Hapless White Sox
Luis Gil certainly hit the rookie wall in June, with a 6.45 ERA in five starts and striking out less than a batter per inning. However, he figured things out in July and carried that over to August.
Gil is in line to keep rolling as he has a dream matchup on Monday. He will take the mound against the Chicago White Sox, who have the fifth-highest strikeout rate against righties and the lowest wRC+ in the majors on the season.
We've already seen what kind of damage Gil can do against this lineup, as he struck out 14 White Sox in May. He'll only have to record half as many strikeouts against a White Sox lineup that is much worse than the one he saw in May.
Gil is trending up in the strikeout department again, having eclipsed 6.5 strikeouts in three of his past five starts, and he should overpower this White Sox team again.
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