While most eyes may turn to the gridiron this Saturday, there is plenty of MLB action to capitalize on as well. Three starting pitchers stand out, in particular, as there appears to be significant value in the prop market.
Read below for my three MLB player props for Saturday, August 24.
Doug Ziefel's MLB Player Props for Saturday, Aug. 24
- Albert Suarez Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (-115, DraftKings)
- Charlie Morton Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120, FanDuel)
- Clayton Kershaw Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (+132, bet365)
MLB player prop bets and MLB prop bets are becoming increasingly popular among bettors. These wagers focus on individual player performances, such as runs, home runs, and strikeouts, adding excitement by allowing bettors to target specific player statistics rather than just game outcomes.
Astros vs Orioles Player Props: Sell High on Albert Suarez
On the surface, Albert Suarez has done a fine job for the Baltimore Orioles, filling the backend of the rotation this season. Suarez comes into this start with a 3.18 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. However, a closer look reveals he is due for significant regression. Many predictive stats indicate that his xERA, xFIP, and SIERA are all well above his season ERA.
You do not want to take that into an outing against the Houston Astros. The Astros rank eighth in wRC+ and OBP against righties on the season while also having the fourth-lowest strikeout rate against them. There will be plenty of balls in play, and that should lead to some ugly numbers for Suarez. Exiting early has been his trend this season, as he's gone under this total in 13 of 17 starts.
Nationals vs Braves Player Props: Bad Matchup for Charlie Morton
If you remember, we backed Charlie Morton in his last start against the Angels. He got us to the window by completing six innings of work, but he was very fortunate to get there, as he ran into trouble following a dominant beginning to his outing.
As for today's outlook, I'm seeing more value on him struggling than the market suggests. It's rare to see a 40-year-old starter rely on strikeouts the way Morton does, but his stuff has surpassed the test of time. However, he'll be up against a Washington Nationals team that is committed to putting the ball in play. They are sixth in zone-contact rate and third in chase-contact rate.
The Nats' ability to put the ball in play has given them the lowest strikeout rate in the majors against righties over the last 15 days and the sixth-lowest rate on the season. Morton hasn't had much success against the Nationals in 2024, as they've tagged him for 12 earned runs in 10.2 innings pitched. It's clear they see the ball well from him, and that recent history should help minimize his strikeouts tonight.
Rays vs Dodgers Player Props: Expect a Strong Outing From Clayton Kershaw
Future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw is set to make his sixth start of the season since returning from injury, and his peripherals look great. A 2.63 ERA and 1.25 WHIP seem Kershaw-esque, but his advanced statistics say otherwise.
Which version of Kershaw will we see tonight? Well, I expect him to turn back the clock against the Tampa Bay Rays. Kershaw has seemed to find it over his last three starts, as he's allowed just two earned runs in 16.1 innings while striking out 13.
Tonight, he'll take the mound at home against a Rays lineup that is last in wRC+ and OBP against lefties over the last 15 days. The Rays have been scuffling, and Kershaw has found early success in missing barrels. All signs point to Kershaw cruising through this lineup and pitching into the sixth for the third time this year.
