I swept the MLB player props board on Saturday and I'm riding high into the Sunday MLB slate. I've found three more starting pitchers to target this Sunday.
Let's dive into my MLB player props and Sunday picks for Joe Musgrove, Jack Flaherty and Jameson Taillon.
MLB Player Props & Sunday Picks (Sept. 8)
- Jameson Taillon Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (+120, bet365)
- Joe Musgrove Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115, DraftKings)
- Jack Flaherty Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-105, bet365)
MLB player prop bets and MLB prop bets are becoming increasingly popular among bettors. These wagers focus on individual player performances, such as runs, home runs, and strikeouts, adding excitement by allowing bettors to target specific player statistics rather than just game outcomes.
Yankees vs Cubs Player Props: Fade Jameson Taillon
The New York Yankees and Chicago Cubs will conclude their series at Wrigley Field this afternoon. Jameson Taillon will get the ball for the Cubs.
While Taillon has been solid for the Cubs this season, pitching to a 3.66 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, a close look shows he is due to regress, and that is a scary thing to carry into an outing against the Yankees.
The Yankees lead the majors in wRC+ and OBP against righties this season, which means they can do damage on balls put in play. Well, Taillon's biggest issue this season has been missing bats, as his whiff rate sits in just the eighth percentile.
With a high amount of hard contact expected off Taillon, fading him by taking the over on his hits line is a great angle. He's allowed six hits or more in 58 percent of his starts this year, but we are getting +120 odds, which is a massive edge based on his hit rate.
Giants vs Padres Player Props: Sell High on Joe Musgrove
Joe Musgrove has been very solid since returning from the IL. He's allowed three runs or less in all five of his starts. A big part of his recent success has been his ability to generate strikeouts.
Musgrove has struck out six batters in three of those five outings, but he is getting too much love from the market today. The San Francisco Giants may jump off the page as a strikeout target because they own the second-highest strikeout rate against righties over the last month, but neither they nor Musgrove profile to generate many strikeouts.
Musgrove's chase rate sits in just the 27th percentile, which means he relies on called strikes. Well, the Giants rank 11th in zone contact rate and have the sixth-lowest chase rate.
So, San Francisco is not going to get themselves out by swinging at bad pitches, but they are also likely to use the strikes they see.
Zooming out, Musgrove's recent success has been an outlier. He has gone under this total in 63 percent of his last 64 starts, which includes 11 of 15 this season.
Guardians vs Dodgers Player Props: Great Price on Jack Flaherty
The last starter we'll look at is Jack Flaherty. Flaherty has a tough matchup against the Cleveland Guardians, as they are a pesky lineup that makes a ton of contact.
While their lineup ranks seventh in zone contact rate and third in chase contact rate, they have some flaws that a pitcher like Flaherty can exploit. Cleveland makes contact at a high rate, but they also swing at a high rate.
They rank sixth in zone swing percentage and chase rate. Flaherty has shown he excels at generating swings and misses, as his CSW ranks in the 91st percentile.
The Guardians' aggression will work against them with a pitcher like Flaherty on the mound. This is why we've seen him record six strikeouts in two of the three times he's faced them this season.
At -105, this is a great price to play a sneaky over here on one of the game's best strikeout artists.
