The dog days of summer are over, but the pennant races are on. There's no better time to get in on the MLB action with so many edges to capitalize on down the stretch, especially when it comes to targeting player props.
I've found three starters to target on Wednesday. Let's dive into my top MLB player prop bets for Wednesday.
Doug Ziefel's MLB Player Props (9/4)
- Spence Arrighetti Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-116 at BetRivers)
- Griffin Canning Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130 at bet365)
- Keider Montero Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-125 at DraftKings)
MLB player prop bets and MLB prop bets are becoming increasingly popular among bettors. These wagers focus on individual player performances, such as runs, home runs, and strikeouts, adding excitement by allowing bettors to target specific player statistics rather than just game outcomes.
Astros vs. Reds Prediction: Spence Arrighetti Prop Bet
Early in the season, Spence Arrighetti was a starter to target for walks, as the rookie did not show much ability to command the strike zone. However, he turned a corner in August, holding a 1.95 ERA over five starts with a 0.90 WHIP and just 10 walks in 32 innings pitched.
Arrighettil will have a great opportunity to carry that momentum into September as he takes the mound on Wednesday against the Cincinnati Reds, who have shown flashes offensively, but their numbers tell the true story.
They are 23rd in wRC+ and have the fourth-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. That is not something you want to take into a matchup against a pitcher who's been rolling like Arrighetti, who will likely only get better.
He's still due for a great deal of positive regression. His xERA of 3.81 and SIERA of 3.93 are far better and more telling than his season ERA of 4.63.
There's no reason to fade Arrighetti tonight, so back him to work into the sixth inning.
Dodgers vs. Angels Prediction: Griffin Canning Prop Bet
Griffin Canning has been a guy to pick on in the player prop markets, as opposing lineups have done more than their fair share of picking on him. Canning enters this start with a 5.19 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP.
He has not missed many bats this season, and the majority of contact made against him has been hard. His strikeout rate ranks in the 10th percentile, while his barrel and hard-hit rates are in the 25th and 27th percentiles, respectively.
Those are not pretty numbers, but they look appetizing to the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have crushed righties this year and have been better lately as they've gotten healthier.
They rank fourth in wRC+ on the season and second over the last 15 days. Against a pitcher like Canning, they should be putting the ball in play with authority quite often.
With all of that expected, it should severely limit Canning's opportunity to get many, if any, strikeouts. He has gone under this total in 18 of his 27 starts this season, and it's likely we will see a 19th tally added to that column.
Tigers vs. Padres Prediction: Keider Montero Prop Bet
Rookie Keider Montero has been hit or miss through his first 12 big-league starts for the Detroit Tigers, but the one thing he hasn't missed much of is bats, and that could get him in trouble Wednesday night.
He enters this outing with a 5.17 ERA and has not shown many signs of improving it, as he has not produced many whiffs or soft contact. His whiff rate sits in the 12th percentile, and his xBA against is in the eighth percentile.
Those predictive numbers do not bode well against a San Diego Padres lineup that has been the most difficult to deal with in baseball this season.
Padres batters do not strike out, as they have the lowest team K-rate against righties, but they can also do damage by creating traffic. San Diego ranks third in wRC+ and OBP against righties.
The Padres are primed to score runs against Montero, who has already shown that he'll allow multiple runs in an outing. Montero has gone over this total in eight of his 13 starts, and the Padres will be the best lineup he's faced in his young MLB career.
Taking the over here is a solid angle from which to round out our card.
