I took a step back yesterday on MLB player props as Griffin Canning and Spencer Arrighetti did not perform to expectations. However, I'm primed to bounce back on Thursday with another trio of starting pitchers — Taj Bradley, Blake Snell and Ranger Suarez — showing value in the MLB props market.
So, with that said, let's dive into my MLB player props for Thursday, September 5.
Doug Ziefel's MLB Player Props (Thursday, Sept. 5)
- Taj Bradley Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-132, BetRivers)
- Blake Snell Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-130, DraftKings)
- Ranger Suarez Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (+130, bet365)
MLB player prop bets and MLB prop bets are becoming increasingly popular among bettors. These wagers focus on individual player performances, such as runs, home runs, and strikeouts, adding excitement by allowing bettors to target specific player statistics rather than just game outcomes.
Twins vs Rays Player Props: Rebound Game for Taj Bradley?
We'll start things off in Tampa Bay, where Taj Bradley will take the ball for the Rays in their series finale with the MinnesotaTwins. Bradley comes into this start looking to put a rough month of August behind him as he pitched to a 10.41 ERA over his last five starts.
The good news for Bradley — and for us — is that his numbers are pointing toward a bounce back. Bradley's ERA may be 4.35, but his SIERA of 3.77 and xFIP of 3.73 are more telling of how he's actually pitched.
When Bradley has been on this season, he's been efficient, and the Twins will help him work quickly, as they rank 14th in chase rate and 11th in zone swing rate.
Overall, Bradley has worked deeper into games than his recent stretch portrays. He's gone over 16.5 outs in 55% of his starts, and we should see at least six innings from him in a solid rebound effort.
Diamondbacks vs Giants Player Props: Fade Blake Snell
We go from one pitcher looking to bounce back to another who has been on a tear. Blake Snell has regained his 2023 Cy Young form with a 1.19 ERA over the last two months.
However, that is unsustainable, and he's due for regression on Thursday against the ArizonaDiamondbacks. xERA wise, Snell's FIP of 2.74 is right in line with his xERA on the year, but his SIERA of 3.38 and his xFIP of 3.27 show he's due to average about one more run allowed per outing.
This looming regression is not something you want to take into a start against the Diamondback, who have crushed lefties this year — they rank third in wRC+ and second in OBP against southpaws.
What's interesting is that they do all this damage without striking out often. The D-backs have the sixth-lowest strikeout rate in baseball against lefties.
All signs point to Snell's hot streak coming to an end, which means his window to rack up strikeouts will be much smaller.
Phillies vs Marlins Player Props: Short Leash for Ranger Suarez
Ranger Suarez will take the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies tonight, and there are some serious questions surrounding his workload. This will be his third start since returning from the injured list, and the Phillies have been cautious with him thus far.
Suarez has thrown just 72 and 78 pitches in his last two outings, and it's unlikely we will see him ramp up during the last month of the season. That notion comes from how Suarez has been used in the past, especially in the postseason.
Despite what we've seen from him during the regular season this year, Suarez has not been a guy typically allowed to see a lineup for a third time. He averages 16.3 outs per start in his career.
With Suarez's workload likely being managed down the stretch, taking him under at plus money is a great edge to round out our card.
