We swept the board yesterday and now have a ton of momentum heading into Sunday's slate. I've got my eyes on three more pitcher props with a lot of value.
So, let's dive into our top MLB player props for Sunday, August 18.
Doug Ziefel's MLB Player Props (Sunday, Aug. 18)
- Merrill Kelly Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-125, DraftKings)
- Brady Singer Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100, bet365)
- Charlie Morton Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-118, BetRivers)
MLB player prop bets and MLB prop bets are becoming increasingly popular among bettors. These wagers focus on individual player performances, such as runs, home runs, and strikeouts, adding excitement by allowing bettors to target specific player statistics rather than just game outcomes.
Diamondbacks vs Rays Player Props: Value on Merrill Kelly
We kick things off in Tampa Bay, where Merrill Kelly will make his second start since returning from the injured list. Typically, players building back from injury are ones to avoid, but that's not the case with Kelly this afternoon.
The biggest factor in this angle is the matchup. The Rays sold at the trade deadline and have fallen off offensively since then. They come into this game ranking 25th in wRC+ and OBP against righties over the last 15 days.
Another factor in backing Kelly is his pitch count. There's no concern that he will be limited in any way, as he tossed 85 pitches in his return outing last week. With many of the pitches expected to be low-stress, we should see him eat innings like in the past.
Kelly has surpassed this total in 69% of his last 72 starts dating back to 2022. We should see him regain that form this afternoon.
Royals vs Reds Player Props: Fade Brady Singer?
Royals starter Brady Singer has been tough to cap this year when it comes to his strikeout props. On paper, he profiles as a groundball artist, but we've also seen him rack up double-digit strikeouts this year.
So, what's the key to avoid striking out against Singer? It's putting the ball in play on pitches in the strike zone.
Singer has solid command and doesn't get many batters to chase. In fact, his chase rate sits in just the 30th percentile.
That will be a big boost to a Reds lineup that has the fifth-lowest chase contact rate in baseball. However, they're also 19th in zone contact rate, and there's a 30% difference between the two rates for them.
So, with Singer's hit rate at 58% to the under on the season, the current plus-money price offers great value. This matchup is not as easy as it seems.
Braves vs Angels Player Props: Morton Looks to Beat Father Time
Father Time has certainly caught up to Uncle Charlie, but that doesn't mean the 40-year-old won't thrive in a great matchup. Charlie Morton gets to face the Angels, who have been struggling over the past two weeks.
L.A. ranks 28th in wRC+ and 26th in OBP against right-handed pitching over the last 15 days. It also boasts the fourth-highest strikeout rate in that same span.
We've seen Morton fall off in terms of hard contact allowed this season, but it's clear that the Angels aren't making much of their own right now. Additionally, Morton still owns above-average groundball and flyball rates, so many of the balls put in play by the scuffling Angels will likely result in outs.
Look for Morton to put together a quality start today.
