With just one more day until football, why not build your bankroll on the diamond? I've found three pitchers that have value in the player prop market.
Let's meet them as we dive into our top MLB player props for Wednesday, September 11.
Doug Ziefel's MLB Player Props (Wednesday, Sept. 11)
- Zack Wheeler Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+120, bet365)
- Max Fried Under 18.5 Outs Recorded (-105, DraftKings)
- Colin Rea Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (+110, bet365)
MLB player prop bets and MLB prop bets are becoming increasingly popular among bettors. These wagers focus on individual player performances, such as runs, home runs, and strikeouts, adding excitement by allowing bettors to target specific player statistics rather than just game outcomes.
Rays vs. Phillies Player Props: Big Day for Wheeler?
Aces are wild in today's slate, and the first one I'm targeting is Zack Wheeler. Wheeler has been excellent for the Phillies this season, pitching to a 2.59 ERA and a 0.59 WHIP.
However, he has an opportunity to have a dominant outing as he'll be taking the mound against the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays have declined offensively, ranking 29th in wRC+ against righties over the last 30 days.
A big reason why is that they've struggled to make contact. Tampa Bay has the lowest zone contact rate in baseball and the ninth-highest chase rate.
The Rays are a team to target for strikeouts, and we've seen Wheeler's strikeout upside. He's struck out eight or more batters in 10 of his 28 starts this season, but he's averaged 6.8 punchouts per start.
We need him to have a slightly above-average performance, and it should happen against one of the most strikeout-prone lineups in baseball.
Pick: Zack Wheeler Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+120)
Braves vs. Nationals Player Props: Fried Trending Down
Next, we go to another ace from the NL East as Max Fried gets the ball for the Atlanta Braves.
Fried has struggled overall in the second half of the season as he has a 4.08 ERA and 1.29 WHIP since the All-Star break.
Tonight, he'll have to try to right the ship against a Washington Nationals lineup that's been swinging the bats well lately. The Nats come into this game fifth in wRC+ and sixth in OBP against lefties over the last two weeks.
With the Nats trending up and Fried trending down, it's hard to see Fried working very deep into this game.
In addition to the production, Washington is a very disciplined lineup. It ranks 28th in strikeout rate against lefties over the last month, but it ranks in the bottom half of the league in swing rate. However, taking that a step further, the Nationals are third in zone swing rate, which means they don't chase and put strikes in play.
Fried hasn't shown the best command as his walk rate is in the 42nd percentile.
Expect the Nats to make him work — and even do damage on the scoreboard — before he leaves this game before the seventh inning.
Pick: Max Fried Under 18.5 Outs Recorded (-105)
Brewers vs. Giants Player Props: Good Matchup for Rea
Colin Rea allows a boatload of hard contact, but that high amount of contact has allowed him to work efficiently this season.
Rea has worked into the sixth inning in 18 of his 27 starts this season while averaging just 86.9 pitches per start. All of this contact may catch up to him eventually, but it's not likely to happen today against the San Francisco Giants.
The Giants' lineup has been struggling against righties, ranking 26th in wRC+ and 29th in OBP over the last month. However, they're also a lineup that will allow Rea to work efficiently as it ranks fifth in zone swing rate.
Rea has shown great command, with a walk rate in the 79th percentile.
I mentioned the hit rate above, which gives us tremendous line value on the current plus-money price.
Back Rea to turn in a quality start tonight.
