Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can find my projections for every MLB game on Friday in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Monday, August 12.
MLB Predictions Monday, Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (August 12)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Rangers vs. Red Sox Prediction, Pick & Preview
Tyler Mahle (TEX) vs. Brayan Bello (BOS)
Tyler Mahle will make his second start since returning from elbow surgery. The righty only posted a 92 Stuff+ figure in his first start back (111 in 2023, 100 in 2022), but his velocity (92.3 mph) compared favorably to pre-surgery levels (92.6 mph in 2023).
The rest of the season projections put Mahle between a 4.19 and 4.42 FIP projection, compared to a well above-average 3.32 xERA and 3.65 in 2023 and a 3.49 xERA and 4.03 xFIP in 2022. I view the projection more as his floor, with pre-injury results as his ceiling.
Projections (projected range of 3.87 to 4.19) and pitch modeling metrics prefer Brayan Bello (103 Stuff+, 104 Pitching+, 3.64 botERA) to Mahle (3.75 botERA) to Mahle. However, Bello (5.16 ERA, 4.75 xERA) has continued to disappoint (career 4.64 ERA, 3.88 xFIP) at the MLB level despite obvious upside.
Moreover, Bello is returning on Monday from paternity leave without skipping a start – and may be less than 100% mentally and physically – after likely less-than-ideal sleep in recent days.
Texas is the superior defensive club – ranking 1st in Outs Above Average (OAA) and 8th in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) on the season; Boston ranks 27th and 12th, respectively, by the exact defensive measurements.
I projected these offenses about the same (102 wRC+ for both teams against a right-handed pitcher – assuming Jarren Duran doesn't get suspended – and Texas's offense has looked as good as it has all year of late; Josh Jong recently returned from the IL, and Corey Seager is finally hitting (148 wRC+ since the All-Star break).
Lastly, I projected 9.30 runs in this matchup in relatively cool evening temperatures (73 degrees at first pitch)
Bets: Texas Rangers Full-Game Moneyline (+112 or better) | Under 10 (-120 or 9.5, +100 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Royals vs. Twins Best Bet: KC's Drastic Home-Road Splits vs Moneyline
Brady Singer (KCR) vs. Pablo Lopez (MIN)
I'll continue to note the Royals' drastic home-road splits; Kansas City ranks 16th on offense this season (99 wRC+), but they're 13th at home (108) and 24th on the road (88). Moreover, the Royals have drastically better strikeout (1st) and walk (19th) rates at home than on the road (5th and 29th, respectively) – good for a difference of nearly five percent in combined K-BB% (13.6% road vs. 8.9% home).
The splits for Bobby Witt Jr. – who has an 11.4% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate at home compared to 19.8% and 4.8% on the road – are particularly egregious:
- Home: .403 AVG / .456 OBP / .728 SLG / 1.184 OPS / 217 wRC+ / 2.6% K-BB%
- Road: .278 AVG / .327 OBP / .472 SLG / .798 OPS / 121 wRC+ / 15% K-BB%
Minnesota should have a clear offensive advantage (projected 121 vs. 98 wRC+ against a right-handed starter).
Despite their respective ERAs, Pablo Lopez (4.74 ERA, 3.50 xERA, 104 Pitching+, 3.23 botERA) is a substantially better pitcher than Brady Singer (3.03 ERA, 4.56 xERA, 94 Pitching+, 4.47 botERA; Singer has been fortunate this season (80% stand rate, 72 % career), while Lopez has been unlucky (68% strand rate, 73% career).
Moreover, Minnesota has the bullpen advantage too – ranking 8th and 9th, respectively, by both xFIP and K-BB% this season, while the Royals have had a bottom five unit by both metrics (26th in xFIP, 29th in K-BB%). Moreover, since the trade deadline, the Royals' relievers have improved but still rank 21st and 25th, respectively, by the same pitching indicators.
In other words, Minnesota has the offensive advantage over Kansas City and is throwing a No. 2 starter in front of a top-ten bullpen against a No. 4 starter and a bottom-ten bullpen.
I projected 8.27 runs in this matchup.
Bets: Minnesota Twins F5 Moneyline (-175 or better) | Minnesota Twins Full-Game Moneyline (-155 or better) | Over 7.5 (-120 or 8, -102 or better)
Sean Zerillo's National League Rookie of the Year Odds and Picks: Skenes vs Merrill
I want to discuss the National League Rookie of the Year race in Major League Baseball, highlighted by Paul Skenes and Jackson Merrill.
While Skenes (2.6 WAR) surged to a big lead – and garnered nearly all of the hype – I'd vote for Merill – the NL WAR leader (3.5 WAR), if the season ended today.
Merrill's WAR lead should grow over the final seven weeks of the regular season (projected 4.2 to 4.6 WAR). Skenes has only accumulated 2.6 WAR to date and projects to finish around 4.1 at the upper end of his projections (with the most conservative projection at 3.2 WAR).
Skenes' WAR ceiling is seemingly Merrill's floor – especially if the latter plays three additional weeks to close the year.
Skenes tossed 130 innings between college and the minors last season. This year, he's already at 119 innings between Triple-A and the majors – and projects to toss 34-51 additional innings – over roughly eight starts the rest of the way. However, if I could, I'd hammer the Under on eight starts and 51 innings.
With the Pirates five games below .500 and seemingly out of the wild card race, and Skenes showing declining stuff, I'd imagine he gets shut down by the first week of September.
Skenes averaged 100.1 mph in his MLB debut, and 99.2 mph across his first ten starts through July 5. Since July 11, Skenes' average velocity has dipped to 98.3 mph, and he's sat at season-lows of 98 mph and 97.7 mph in his past two outings.
I do not deny that Skenes has been the most efficient rookie. Before the velocity dip, my model had him ranked as the best starting pitcher in baseball, ahead of Tarik Skubal and Chris Sale.
Still, Rookie of the Year tends to be a volume-based award. As a reminder, 18 of the past 24 Rookie of the Year winners (75%) finished atop the rookie leaderboard in their respective league in WAR (18 of 22 if you ignore the pandemic-shortened season) with an average ranking of 1.46 among the 24 award recipients.
If I had zero awareness of the MLB reporting cycle and only data to go on, I'd flip Skenes' and Merrill's respective odds in the betting market – and even factoring in Skenes' media hype, I couldn't get this past pick'em pricing.
Merill is currently batting .294—seventh in the NL among qualified hitters—and expects to clear 20+ homers, 80+ runs, and RBI, and 15+ steals over 600 plate appearances. Skenes should finish around 120 MLB innings with a mid-twos ERA – which is impressive, but 60% of an excellent pitching season falls short of an entire season of All-Star caliber offensive production.
Sean Zerillo's MLB Betting Picks for Monday, August 12
For additional bet notifications, follow me in the Action Network App. This section includes insights into free MLB moneyline picks, focusing on the best bets for today's games
- Arizona Diamondbacks F5 (-200, 0.25u) at BetMGM (small to -220)
- Houston Astros F5 (-110, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -115)
- Kansas City Royals / Minnesota Twins, Over 7.5 (-118, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings (flat to -120 or 8, -102)
- Los Angeles Dodgers / Milwaukee Brewers, Under 8 (+100, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -110)
- Minnesota Twins F5 (-145, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -175)
- Minnesota Twins (-146, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -155)
- Texas Rangers (+124, 0.5u; bet to +112)
- Texas Rangers / Boston Red Sox, Under 10 (-118, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings (flat to -120 or 9.5, -102)
