Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
You can find expert projections for every MLB game on Friday in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Saturday, July 6.
MLB Predictions Saturday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (July 6)
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -134 | 9 -115o / -105u | +154 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +112 | 9 -115o / -105u | -184 |
RHP Josh Winckowski (BOS) vs. RHP Gerritt Cole (NYY)
While his first two starts back from injury were something of a mixed bag, Gerritt Cole's fastball velocity returned in a big way last week in Toronto which led him to his best outing of the year.
The right-hander manager to punch out six over five innings of one-run ball, allowing just four baserunners along the way, and now that he seems to be settling in I think it's the perfect time to back him against a team that's traditionally given him fits.
This Red Sox team is a little different than the pesky contact-oriented ones he's had trouble with in the past. These Red Sox are striking out in nearly a quarter of their plate appearances to rank among the worst five in the league and have impossibly coupled that with a heavy dose of ground balls.
As with most teams that put the ball on the ground, they struggle a bit against fly-ball types like Cole, but with a ridiculous 150-point delta between their OPS versus ground-ballers and fly-ballers, they certainly are more averse to launch-angle enjoyers than most ground-ball teams.
That's most of the reason why I like Cole against the Red Sox, a matchup made even tastier with Boston's inability to make consistent contact. I don't really love the Yankees, though, a team which is slumping and hasn't even salvation against facing their beloved ground-ballers in recent weeks.
Josh Winckowski is one of these, and as a ground-ball arm he doesn't fall victim to the long ball quite so often and getting to him requires an assault of base hits. This is not something New York has proven capable of over the last two weeks, and with Winckowski's command of the strike zone, he should navigate around the Yankees and deliver us a low-scoring game.
Bet: Under 9 (-105) | Play to Under 8.5 (-110)
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| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +114 | 9.5 104o / -128u | -134 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -137 | 9.5 104o / -128u | +114 |
LHP David Peterson (NYM) vs. LHP Bailey Falter (PIT)
If you're new here, you might have no idea that I hate David Peterson. Sure, he's probably a great guy — and it's not his fault that evaluators have seen enough potential in his frame to trot him out in the big leagues for years — but on the hill, he's not a pitcher I have much faith in.
Peterson has pitched to a full complement of ground balls like the pitcher we just praised above, but that isn't always a good thing. In his case, he's pitched to a ridiculously bad .303 Expected Batting Average (xBA) in 33 1/3 innings this season, and while you may be quick to tell me that it's come in a small sample size, I'd retort with the fact that he was one of the worst in the game last year with a .263 xBA.
The concern here is that Peterson's not even coming close to the league average as it pertains to strikeouts, and even though the Pirates have been guilty of punching out a lot this season, they've been better against lefties.
In that split, too, they've seen some encouraging returns with a .248 xBA to southpaws in June and a .351 xBA thus far in July after posting a measly .227 xBA versus lefties in May.
Pittsburgh is more than capable of exploiting Peterson, but on the flip side, I do have my concerns about Bailey Falter, who's allowed expected hits at nearly the same clip over the last two seasons and will meet a still-competent Mets offense that ranks second in wRC+ to lefties.
New York's big issue of late has been strikeouts, and its Isolated Power (ISO) in the last week remains an excellent .220. Falter's been one of the worst in the game at striking guys out since the start of 2023 and offers up a crazy-bad .470 Expected Slugging on the year. I think we'll see plenty of scoring.
Bet: Over 9 (+100) | To Over 9 (-115)
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 10.5 -115o / -105u | -176 |
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -104 | 10.5 -115o / -105u | +148 |
RHP Seth Lugo (KC) vs. LHP Austin Gomber (COL)
This one's an utterly weird game considering Seth Lugo seems to actually enjoy pitching in Colorado.
For his career, he owns a 3.21 ERA in 14 innings at Coors Field, and with his ability to throw strikes and induce ground balls, there's a great chance of the good times continuing against a Rockies team that is offering up at everything and failing to produce many hits at all.
Regression may eventually hit Lugo, but it wouldn't seem likely it comes on Saturday when you consider how bad Colorado has been on contact.
On the other end of the spectrum, however, Austin Gomber has managed to pitch well at Coors Field at long last with a 3.92 ERA in Colorado to a 5.44 ERA elsewhere. He's gradually cut down his fly-ball rate over the last few years, and now he'll face a Royals team that leads the league in hitting the ball in the air.
The thing there is that the Royals have not only turned that into a mediocre .158 ISO, but they have struggled mightily against lefties with a .138 ISO in that split. Gomber's found a way to cut back in the average number of well-struck balls against him and won't face a very imposing lineup here, and with that, I think both pitchers might find a way to this Under.
Bet: Under 10.5 Runs (-105) | To Under 10 (-105)
