Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
You can find expert projections for every MLB game on Friday in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Saturday, June 22.
MLB Predictions Saturday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (June 22)
Giants vs. Cardinals
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +136 | 8.5 -122o / -100u | -108 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -164 | 8.5 -122o / -100u | -108 |
Jordan Hicks vs. Miles Mikolas
This will be a revenge start for Jordan Hicks, who was run out of St. Louis after failing in a brief stint as a starter and posting ultimately poor numbers in his first four seasons with the club. He never quite lived up to his sky-high potential there, but in San Francisco, a much better team of pitching coaches has helped turn him into an above-average member of the rotation.
As an injury-prone arm, it makes sense why many are so skeptical of Hicks' early success. He's been "day-to-day" on a number of occasions over the last month, but those have all been related to illness rather than something going wrong with his body. Around those issues, he's still managed to remain effective in pitching to ground balls and has even produced some great strikeout games, though walks have been a bit of an issue.
There should be few reasons to worry on Saturday, however, as St. Louis has fallen into a big slump in the past two, weeks which have seen the home team slash .251/.288/.389. The scariest part of this all is that the Cardinals are walking at an impossibly-low 3.9% clip during that span and striking out in nearly 24% of plate appearances. As a team that hunts home runs, you're already behind the proverbial eight-ball against a ground-ball specialist like Hicks — and when you remove the ability to hurt him by taking free passes and limiting his punchouts, you're very much in trouble.
Now, it's not as if the Giants are red-hot at the plate, but in the month of June they've maintained a borderline top-10 offense and have done a good enough job of hitting better than league average. They may not be afforded the same high number of walks they've benefited from in the last couple of weeks, but with a stronger power outlook and more consistency on contact, they should do more than enough against Miles Mikolas, who has pounded the zone once again this year to his detriment. He carries a poor .259 Expected Batting Avergae and .440 Expected Slugging into this one, which should open things up for San Francisco to win.
Bet: Giants Moneyline (-105 via DraftKings | Bet to -115)
Twins vs. A's
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 8.5 -100o / -122u | -156 |
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -126 | 8.5 -100o / -122u | +132 |
Bailey Ober vs. JP Sears
Here's the thing: I don't think either of these pitchers are very good. Both own very poor expected numbers on contact, and while Ober does at least offer a decent amount of swing-and-miss potential, it's not enough for me to believe in him in a season in which he's posted a 4.81 ERA and allowed a whopping 12 home runs in 14 starts.
One thing these two do have going for them Saturday, however, is they both pitch to fly balls. We've seen most teams this season reach base at a higher clip against those who pitch to ground balls, though the obvious caveat is that power is easier to find against guys like this.
The issue in this game is that it will take place in Oakland, where the A's play in one of the two toughest parks to hit home runs. Yes, the Twins do own the best wRC+ in baseball over the last two weeks and their opponents have actually been roughly league average in that category — which signifies a hot streak — but I'm still having a tough time seeing a ton of runs scored in this spacious stadium.
The Twins and A's both rank inside the top five in fly ball rate, something that's only grown more extreme over the last two weeks, and Minnesota's success lately can almost entirely be attributed to a huge jump in Isolated Power — though in fairness it has done a better job of stringing together hits.
The way I see this one, we'll have two teams lifting the ball all game, given that's been their approach all season and the main flavor of contact for both arms. With both bullpens doing a bang-up job this year, too, I do think this total is a bit inflated.
Bet: Under 8.5 -122 (Bet to Under 8 -115)
Red Sox vs. Reds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +126 | 9.5 -115o / -105u | -120 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -152 | 9.5 -115o / -105u | +102 |
Nick Pivetta vs. Frankie Montas
Ah, yes, let's take a moment to disparage another major-league pitcher. This time, I'm coming after Frankie Montas, who many teams have tried and failed to turn into a right-handed Framber Valdez.
The 31-year-old was a tantalizing prospect for years given his heavy sinker, but he's almost completely abandoned it this season. That's a real feather in his cap — because his sinker was a downright awful delivery — but the unfortunate news is that the somewhat decent four-seamer he's begun relying on has now become an extremely hittable pitch with a .264 xBA and .462 xSLG, which are well worse than the league average.
Montas is somewhat lost in the moment, attempting to replace his sinker with a splitter that's not quite fully formed yet. To make matters worse, he's being tasked with pitching in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the game. Given he's taken a somewhat troubling fly-ball rate and made it the worst it's been since 2017, I'm not quite sure he's the man for a job in Cincinnati.
This will set up for a devastating clash with the Red Sox, a team that has produced a solid 11.3% home run-to-fly ball ratio this year to rank 13th in the game. Boston also ranks inside the top 10 in wRC+ over the last two weeks. This team can hit for power, and if not for a bevy of strikeouts they would look like much more of a contender in the American League.
Against a contact-oriented arm who can't seem to figure out how to record outs, I love this spot for the Red Sox offense.
On the flip side, I think this is a rare moment to believe in Nick Pivetta inside a hitter-friendly park. He does allow a ton of fly balls, but these Reds hitters have been friendly themselves to opposing pitchers with one of the two lowest offensive outputs in the league over the last two weeks and a meek .134 ISO.
The big selling point would also be Cincinnati's near-25% strikeout rate, which will make for a tricky matchup against a hurler ranked inside the top 20% of the league in punchout rate. I don't trust the Reds' contact to do nearly as much damage here, and if there's even less of it, this is too good of a spot to ignore.
Bet: Red Sox Moneyline (-120 via FanDuel | Bet to -130)
