Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
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Here are my favorite bets for Sunday, August 11.
MLB Predictions, Picks & Previews for Sunday (August 11)
Athletics vs. Blue Jays
Athletics Odds Spread Total Moneyline Blue Jays Odds Spread Total Moneyline 
JP Sears vs. Chris Bassitt
JP Sears has been by all accounts an average MLB starting pitcher this year. His expected ERA is at 4.38 because he's been doing a good enough job locating his fastball up in the zone to generate a high number of flyballs. He likes to throw it up and into righties, which has gotten him in a little bit of trouble at times, but that pitch is only allowing a .213 expected batting average.
Where Sears excels is with his offspeed pitches. His sweeper is by far his best pitch, as it has a 117 Stuff+ rating and is allowing a .292 xwOBA to opposing hitters. The Blue Jays not only struggle with left handed pitching (92 wRC+) , but they have a .196 wOBA against left handed sweepers.
Chris Bassitt, like Sears, has been an average MLB starting pitcher this season. He pitched much better in his last start against Baltimore, but for the season has a 4.26 xERA. Here is the thing with Bassitt, he has a ton of different offspeed pitches that he throws to keep hitters guessing, but his success comes down to his sinker. It's the pitch he throws most often at 41% of the time and it hasn't been that effective.
It only has a Stuff+ rating of 95 and opposing hitters have a .358 xwOBA on it because he's not getting near the number of ground balls off of it than he did when he was at his peak with the Mets. The A's not only crush right handed sinkers to the tune of a .355 xwOBA, but they have also been mashing the ball as of late. Over the last 30 days, the A's have a 121 wRC+, which is fifth best in baseball.
The A's also have a pretty massive bullpen advantage. Over the last 30 days, they are top-10 in xFIP, which Toronto has the second worst after trading away some key arms at the deadline.
I have the A's projected as road favorites, so I like the value on them at +132.
Pick: A's ML (+132 via FanDuel)
Pirates vs. Dodgers
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +100 | 8 -115o / -105u | +220 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -120 | 8 -115o / -105u | -270 |
Bailey Falter vs. Tyler Glasnow
The Dodgers are the biggest favorites on the board Sunday, but I think they are still a little short.
Bailey Falter is a pretty big negative regression candidate with his ERA sitting at 3.87, but his expected ERA is up at 4.98. He is someone that has followed the trend in baseball this season in elevating a high number of fastballs with a good amount of induced vertical break. Although Falter is in the 98th percentile for extension and in the 75th percentile for iVB, he has very little velocity on his fastball. He's only averaging 91.8 mph, which isn't going to work against the Dodgers.
Falter throws his fastball 50% of the time and his curveball backing it up is allowing a .358 xwOBA, so he needs his fastball to be effective to have a shot here.
The Dodgers are the best offense in baseball against left-handed pitching and specifically against left-handed fastballs that are 93 mph or slower, they have a .412 xwOBA.
Tyler Glasnow has really pitched well this season for the Dodgers having a 2.57 xERA and 2.62 xFIP. Glasnow has been incredibly effective with his curveball and slider. Both of those pitches have a Stuff+ rating over 110 and have generated whiff rates well over 40%. His fastball has been pretty dominant as well allowing only a .295 xwOBA to opposing hitters.
The Pirates have been the third worst offense this season against right-handed pitching with only an 85 wRC+. On top of that, they are also the fourth-worst fielding team by defensive rating, so the Dodgers really should rout them on Sunday.
I have the Dodgers projected at -363 for the first five innings, so I like the value on them at -240.
Pick:Dodgers First Five Innings ML (-240 via Bet365)
Mets vs. Mariners
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 7.5 -102o / -120u | +106 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +168 | 7.5 -102o / -120u | -124 |
Luis Severino vs. Luis Castillo
Severino has gotten roughed up in his last two starts, but that doesn't take away from how much he's improved this season. He is currently sitting with a 3.92 xERA and has corrected a couple of big issues from last year. When he was on the Yankees in 2023 he had a massive home run problem with his H/9 rate up at 2.32. He's lowered that down to 1.05 and his HR/FB rate is currently at the lowest it's ever been in his career.
He's once again started dominating with his fastball, which averages over 96 mph and is only allowing a .288 xwOBA to opposing hitters. It sounds simple, but he's just doing a much better job of locating it, as he's in the 84th percentile for barrel rate allowed.
The Mariners have not only been very average against right-handed pitching, but they are in the bottom-10 of baseball with only a .332 xwOBA against right-handed fastballs.
Luis Castillo has been pretty much the same as he was for the Mariners last season. Most of his expected metrics are similar, which translates to him being an above-average MLB starting pitcher. He is pretty reliant on his fastball, as he throws it 43.9% of the time. His effectiveness with it is by throwing it up in the zone to generate a high fly ball rate. He has an incredibly low vertical approach angle, which can make it very deceptive and hard for opposing hitters to get on top of the ball, which is why his fastball is only allowing a .291 xwOBA.
With that being said, the Mets are quite literally the best lineup in baseball against not only right-handed pitching but right-handed fastballs as well. Even over the last 30 days, they have a 116 wRC+, which is seventh-best in baseball.
Additionally, over the last 30 days, the Mets bullpen has the best xFIP of anyone in the majors. So, I am not sure they should be underdogs here when they clearly have an offensive and bullpen advantage.
I have the Mets projected at -106, so I like the value of them at +115.
Pick:Mets ML (+115 via ESPNBet)
