Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Sunday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Sunday, August 18.
MLB Predictions Sunday, Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (August 18)
Brad Cunningham's Red Sox vs. Orioles Predictions, Pick, Preview
Kutter Crawford vs. Albert Suarez
Kutter Crawford is in the middle of a really tough stretch. He's given up at least four runs in his past five starts because he's developed a home run problem. He was really solid for the Red Sox over the first half of the season, when he put up a 4.11 xFIP, but since the All-Star Break, his xFIP is well over 5.00 because he's allowed 13 home runs in just 24 innings. He can't continue to be this bad and actually stay in the starting rotation. The good news for him is that the weather is in his favor tomorrow with the winds blowing in from right field at around 8 mph.
It's important to note than even with this horrible stretch, Crawford only has 3.95 xERA. His 107 Stuff+ rating and 105 Location+ rating are the exact same from before the All-Star Break to now. So, nothing has drastically changed.
Albert Suarez has been a below average starting pitcher this season. His xERA is at 4.21 and he's completely changed the way he pitches. He spent two seasons in the KBO living down in the zone and generating ground-ball rates well above 60%. Now, he's gone with the trend that most pitchers in baseball fall into — elevating his fastball up in the zone at a very high rate.
(Image via Baseball Savant)
He throws his fastball over 50% of the time, but is primarily relying on guys chasing because only 45.5% of the time is he throwing it in the zone. Plus, the Red Sox have the third-highest barrel rate on fastballs up in the zone and have been one of the best lineups in baseball lately with the third-best wRC+ over the past 30 days.
I really like the value on the Red Sox as underdogs, but their bullpen is exhausted, so I'm going to target Boston in the first five innings at +107.
Pick: Red Sox F5 ML (+107 via BetRivers)
Brad Cunningham's Guardians vs Brewers Predictions, Pick, Preview
Ben Lively vs. Colin Rea
Ben Lively has been a perfectly average MLB starting pitcher. His expected ERA is sitting at 4.01 and he's been really effective with everything, but his fastball. His sinker and sweeper are both allowing a xwOBA under .290 because he's done such a good job locating them. Lively has terrible Stuff+ numbers, but above average location metrics, so he needs to be effective in the zone.
Milwaukee has been hitting the ball really well lately, but is closer to league average against right-handed sweepers and sinkers, so Lively may have a decent matchup.
Colin Rea is a massive regression candidate with a 3.72 ERA, but a 5.05 xERA. Much like Lively, Rea has terrible Stuff+ numbers and needs to rely on keeping the ball in the zone and generating a lot of soft contact. He's in the seventh percentile for whiff rate and the 17th percentile for barrel rate, which is not a good combination. Both of his main pitches — a sinker and cutter — are allowing over a .390 xwOBA, so the Guardians should be able to hit him hard.
These are two of the best bullpens in baseball, but the Guardians have the edge Sunday because the Brewers are a bit gassed. Devin Williams has pitched three of the past four days and set-up man Joel Payamps has also pitched on back-to-back days. Meanwhile, the Guardians' top-three relievers are fully rested.
I have the Guardians projected as -106 favorites, so I like the value on them at +110.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline (+110 via Caesars)
Brad Cunningham's Dodgers vs. Cardinals Predictions, Pick, Preview
Clayton Kershaw vs. Sonny Gray
Clayton Kershaw has only pitched 18 innings this season, but he's been pretty good in a limited sample size (3.84 xERA). While that is the highest xERA of his career, he's 36-years-old and coming off an injury. He also has no velocity left on any of his pitches with his fastball averaging just 90 mph. With that being said, his slider and curveball have been really effective and both have a Stuff+ rating over 100. He's still got great command over those two pitches, which has allowed him to be effective.
He will have a good matchup against a Cardinals' lineup that flat out can't hit left-handed pitching. The Cardinals only have a 85 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, which is the fourth-worst mark in baseball this season. Not only that, but over the past 3o days they are 19th in wRC+, so Kershaw should be pretty effective Sunday.
Sonny Gray is having a really good first season in St. Louis. He has a 3.68 xERA primarily because of his impressive 11.2 K/9 rate. Gray's improvements can attributed to his sweeper and curveball, which have drastically improved from last season. His sweeper this season has a Stuff+ rating of 152 after being 122 last season, and his curveball is up to 120 from 91 last year. Those two pitches have allowed his to generate a ton of whiffs as his sweeper has an absurd 42% whiff rate.
Both bullpens are above average by all of the pitch-modeling metrics and will have everyone available on Sunday. I only have 7.7 runs projected for this game, so I like the value on Under 8.5 runs at -108.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (-108 via BetRivers)
