Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
You can find expert projections for every MLB game on Friday in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Sunday, June 30.
MLB Predictions: Sunday Expert Picks & Previews
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 7.5 -122o / -100u | +150 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +116 | 7.5 -122o / -100u | -178 |
Patrick Corbin (WAS) vs. Taj Bradley (TB)
Patrick Corbin is having another terrible season. His expected ERA is up at 6.47 — and it's because of a lot of things.
First off, he has no velocity or movement left on his pitches, so he's just trying to rely on generating a high number of ground balls, which is isn't working. Every single one of this pitches is allowing over a .325 xwOBA.
The other bad part for Corbin in this game is the Rays could potentially put nine right-handed bats in the lineup if they want to. Corbin is allowing a .377 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season. With all of those righties in the lineup, the Rays will be in their much better split, as they have a 104 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers.
Taj Bradley is a big-time negative regression candidate. His ERA is 3.81, but his xERA is 4.80.
His main problem is his fastball. He throws it up in the zone 62.7% of the time, and it's getting crushed. Opponents have a .517 xwOBACON, which is one of the highest marks in MLB. He throws his heater over 96 mph on average and it has a Stuff+ rating of 115, but location has been an issue with a Location+ rating of 96.
The Nationals are in their better split advantage, as they are much better against righties than they are against lefties. Also, the Rays bullpen has been terrible this season, ranking in the bottom 10 in both xFIP and K/BB ratio.
I have 9.3 runs projected for this game, so I like the value on Over 8 at -110.
Pick: Over 8 (-110 via DraftKings)
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 8 -110o / -110u | +144 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +116 | 8 -110o / -110u | -172 |
Kyle Hendricks (CHC) vs. Freddy Peralta (MIL)
Here is the problem with Hendricks: he's never had any velocity, so he is pretty reliant on keeping pitches down in the zone to generate a high number of ground balls and induce a lot of soft contact.
While is ground ball and hard-hit rates have remained steady, the location of his changeup, which is his main pitch, is ending up down in the zone 10% less of the time than it did two years ago.
His sinker has been much worse this season, too, allowing a .386 xwOBA with a Stuff+ grade of 100. The Brewers crush slow right-handed sinkers to the tune of a .369 xwOBA. They also have been one of the best teams overall against right-handed pitching, putting up a 113 wRC+.
Freddy Peralta has been amazing this season. He has a 3.67 xERA and one of the highest strikeout rates in baseball at 11.59 per 9 innings. It's mainly because of his fastball that he's been utilizing up in the zone at a very high rate. He doesn't have elite velocity, but he does have 16 inches of induced vertical break to get on top of the barrel of hitters.
Peralta faced the Cubs in late May in Milwaukee and was dominant, only giving up one run and striking out 11 in 5 2/3 innings.
The Brewers also have significant advantages in the bullpen and on defense, so I think they are a little undervalued and like them on the moneyline at -172.
Pick: Brewers ML (-172 via FanDuel)
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -146 | 9 -114o / -106u | +140 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +122 | 9 -114o / -106u | -166 |
Andrew Heaney (TEX) vs. Cole Irvin (BAL)
Cole Irvin is another negative regression candidate. His ERA is at 3.74 while his xERA is at 4.96.
Irvin is not someone that brings stuff to the table — in fact, his Stuff+ rating this season is only 81. He relies on pinpoint location to generate a lot of weak contact. He has an incredibly low walk rate at only 1.75 per 9 innings, but the reality is that when he faces really good lineups, like the Rangers, he's going to get roughed up.
Take for example his last three starts, he faced the Yankees, Braves and Guardians. In those starts, he gave up a combined 17 runs. In just about every single category he's ranks near the bottom among MLB starting pitchers.
Irvin also has terrible split against righties, allowing a .359 wOBA against them. The Rangers will most likely put six right-handed bats in their lineup to make life difficult on Irvin.
Andrew Heaney has been a perfectly average MLB starting pitcher this season. His xERA and xFIP are sitting around league average, but his fastball has been much better.
His fastball is allowing the lowest average exit velocity in baseball. The reason for that is because he does a great job locating it, but also because is has 15.9 inches of horizontal break.
While on paper the Orioles crush left-handed fastballs, they have the third highest over-performance comparing their wOBA to their xwOBA.
The Orioles bullpen is completely depleted. Craig Kimbrel, Yennier Cano, Jacob Webb and Cionel Perez have all pitched in back-to-back games, which means four of their top five arms will be unavailable for this game. I really like the value on the Rangers as underdogs at +140.
Pick: Rangers ML (+140 via FanDuel)
