Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all my bets in the Action Network App and receive live alerts when I log a new bet.
My projections for every MLB game on Friday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Thursday, August 15.
MLB Predictions Thursday, Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (August 15)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Athletics vs Mets Predictions, Pick, Preview
Mitch Spence (OAK) vs. Jose Quintana (NYM)
I project Mitch Spence (3.76 xERA, 12.3% K-BB%, 100 Stuff+, 102 Locaiton+, 101 Pitching+, 3.68 botERA) as a better starter than Jose Quintana (4.91 xERA, 10.5% K-BB%, 83 Stuff+, 98 Location+, 93 Pitching+, 5.35 botERA).
Quintana has posted a 3.90 ERA in 36 starts over the past two seasons despite a 4.76 xERA, 4.36 FIP, and 4.49 xFIP. His .257 BABIP is the best of his career (.283 in 2013), and the 77.5% strand rate is his highest since 2016 (79%).
Quintana is overdue for significant negative regression compared to his career averages (.303 and 77.5%) and the MLB averages (.289 and 71.9%) in these categories.
Spence relies on a cutter/slider/sinker/curveball mix. The slider (123 Stuff+) is his best offering but has been hit the hardest (.440 xSLG). Spence's curveball (106 Stuff+, .188 xBA, .270 xSLG) could be featured more heavily (10.9% usage rate).
I prefer Oakand as a first-five-inning moneyline bet (projected +120), and I would bet their full-game moneyline (projected +136) smaller, if at all, as New York has the bullpen edge.
Bets: Athletics F5 Moneyline (+130 or better) | Athletics Full-Game Moneyline (+150 or better)
Sean Zerillo's Braves vs Giants MLB Best Bet: Shaky Fried
Max Fried (ATL) vs. Logan Webb (SFG)
Max Fried has looked shaky (combined 11 H, 10 R, 8 BB, 15 K in 8 1/3 IP) since returning from an IL stint with a forearm injury, which is typically a leading indicator for eventual Tommy John surgery.
Fried's fastball velocity was down to a season-low 92.5 mph in his first start off the IL, but he bumped it up to 93.8 mph in his most recent outing, in line with his season and career averages (93.7 mph). His Stuff+ rating climbed to 104 — well above his norm — thanks to a dominant curveball (143 in that outing, 113 in 2024, 107 career)
Fried has never been a pitch model darling (96 Stuff+, 98 Location+, 99 Pitching+ in 2024; 92, 100, 100 career) because his fastball, sinker, and cutter grade as below-average offerings.
Models likely miss his ability to generate weak contact, with a career 54.1% groundball rate (57.7% in 2023, 58.8% in 2024) and 4.6% barrel rate.
Still, command — before velocity — is typically the first thing to go and the last thing to return when a pitcher suffers a forearm injury. Fried hasn't shown command this shaky since his rookie year.
From 2020-to-2023, Fried posted three or more walks in a start just ten times across 83 outings, but he's done that 10 times in his 20 starts this year.
The Giants project drastically better against lefties (115 wRC+, 6th) than righties (94 wRC+, 21st), and Logan Webb is always better at home (3.18 xFIP, career 2.99) than on the road (3.47 xFIP, career 3.48).
Still, Webb has gotten hit a bit harder this season (4.20 xERA), and his barrel rate has climbed to a career-high 7.4%.
The ball always carries better at Oracle Park during the day than at night; I projected this total at 7.75 runs.
Bets: Giants F5 Moneyline (-115 or better) | Over 7 (-119 or 7.5, +100 better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Twins vs Rangers Best Bet: Keep Betting Bradford On Moneyline
Bailey Ober (MIN) vs. Cody Bradford (TEX)
I'm continuing to buy stock in Cody Bradford (3.30 xERA, 22.7% K-BB%, 92 Stuff+, 107 Location+, 3.54 botERA), coming off an impressive effort against the Yankees (5 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 7 K).
Pitching models only like his changeup (102 Stuff+, 28% usage rate) — which he happily throws to same-sided hitters and righties — but Bradford locates his low 90s fastball extremely well and mixes in an effective slow curve. He posted a 5.6% walk rate in his minor league career, compared to a 4.5% clip thus far in the majors.
I project Bradford comparably to Bailey Ober (3.35 xERA, 21.2% K-BB%, 90 Stuff+, 106 Location+, 3.62 botERA), who also offers excellent command (career 5.3% walk rate) and relies on a changeup (116 Stuff+, 26.2% usage) as his best offering.
Some projections prefer Ober (projected FIP range of 3.89 to 4.04) to Bradford (projected range of 3.91 to 4.30), but others have them in a dead heat. The Twins have a clear bullpen edge, the most significant head-to-head differential in this matchup.
Minnesota also has the offensive advantage (131 wRC+ vs. lefties, 2nd). However, the Twins are currently without Carlos Correa and could be without Byron Buxton (dealing with a hip ailment) on Thursday (I projected Buxton in for now).
Still, the Ranger bats have been heating up over the past week, and they rate as the better defensive club (10th vs. 21st in Defensive Runs Saved, 1st vs. 6th in Outs Above Average), especially with Correa sidelined.
Bets: Rangers F5 Moneyline (-105 or better) | Rangers Full-Game Moneyline (+100 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Betting Picks for Thursday, August 15
For additional bet notifications, follow me in the Action Network App. This section will highlight my best MLB predictions today and provide additional insights for bettors. Additionally, we provide free MLB picks and insights to help bettors make informed decisions.
- Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants, Over 7 (-112, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (flat to -119 or 7.5, +100)
- Oakland Athletics F5 (+150, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +130)
- Oakland Athletics (+163, 0.25u) at BallyBet (small to +150)
- San Francisco Giants F5 (-110, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -115)
- Texas Rangers F5 (+107, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -105)
- Texas Rangers (+114, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +100)
- Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies, Over 8 (-115, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (flat to -121 or 8.5, -103)
