Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Thursday, September 19.
MLB Predictions Thursday, Expert Picks, Odds, Previews on September 19
Sean Zerillo's MLB Giants vs Orioles Best Bet
Logan Webb (SFG) vs. Zach Eflin (BAL)
From 2019-2021, Camden Yards had the following park factors for right-handed hitters: 110 Runs (3rd), 105 Hits (5th), 125 Home Runs (T-1st).
However, since the left field wall was changed before the 2022 season, those same park factors for right-handed hitters in Baltimore have decreased to 98 (16th), 104 (5th), and 79 (27th).
Historically, Thursday's wind pattern (blowing in from left) has shown profitability toward the under at Camden Yards (62.8% win, +26.95 units for a consistent $100 bettor on a 21.6% ROI since 2005), which has held up in a small sample since the dimensional changes (16-10-1, +4.74 units, 17.6% ROI).
It's not difficult to envision a pitcher's duel between Logan Webb (3.53 ERA, 4.36 xERA, 14.3% K-BB%, 107 Pitching+, 3.14 botERA) and Zach Eflin (3.55 ERA, 3.41 xERA, 17.2% K-BB%, 103 Pitching+, 3.62 botERA).
Webb's K-BB% is down this season (by nearly five percent), and his expected ERA has increased from 3.69 and 3.63 the past two years to the mid-fours in 2024; still, the multi-time NL Cy Young finalist has produced the best pitch modeling metrics of his career, particularly over the past thirty days (111 Stuff+, 107 Locartion+, 107 Pitching+, 2.77 botERA).
Similarly, Eflin's strikeout rate is down more than six percent this season, but he retains the lowest walk rate in MLB (2.8%) and has pitched well since his mid-August IL stint (combined 19 2/3 IP, 17 H, 3 BB, 16 K).
It's always worth noting that Webb is typically a better pitcher at home (career 2.78 ERA, 2.97 xFIP) than on the road (4.12 ERA, 3.50 xFIP), but I still projected Thursday's total at 6.75 runs.
Bets: Under 7.5 (-120 or 7, +100 or better)
Sean Zerillo's Diamondbacks vs Brewers MLB Best Bets
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) vs. Tobias Myers (MIL)
The Brewers clinched the NL Central with the Cubs' loss on Wednesday afternoon, but Milwaukee still rallied late in the evening against the Phillies to pull within three games of the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye in the NL playoffs.
Milwaukee celebrated their divisional title after the win. Still, Thursday's matchup is far from a hangover game that we'll see in the coming weeks (as specific teams clinch with theoretically nothing to play for the remainder of the way and send out their reserve lineup and "B" bullpen the following day).
That said, I still project value on the Diamondbacks behind a pitcher I have regularly bet on this season: Brandon Pfaadt (4.81 ERA, 3.82 xERA, 3.74 xFIP, 17.3% K-BB%, 107 Pitching+, 2.85 botERA; who has carried a high BABIP (.316 vs. .289 league average) and low strand rate (66.5% vs. 72% league average) across his first two MLB seasons.
I bet Pfaaft and the D-Backs last Saturday in this exact matchup against Tobias Myers and the Brewers but in Arizona. Unfortunately, Pfaadt had the worst outing of his career (1 2/3 IP, 7 H, 8 R, 3 BB, 0 K) – which imploded his season-long line.
I bet the Diamondbacks at -135 in the first five innings and -134 for the full game, with price targets at -150 and -145 compared to projected odds of -174 and -162, respectively. The best available odds at the close were -160 and -155, generating roughly 4.1% and 3.3% of CLV on those two bets.
If you took those closing lines and adjusted for home field, you'd expect Arizona to be around -129 in the first half (F5) and -121 for the full game in Milwaukee – nearly in line with my projected odds (-129 and -119, respectively) for Thursday.
Instead, Milwaukee opened around even money (50% implied) in both halves, reflecting a line adjustment (roughly seven percent for home field) based on the original opening line (-135, 57.5% implied), not the closing line from the matchup on Saturday.
The market said the opening line was wrong five days ago, and I expect it to move toward Arizona again despite the result.
And if any team does sit a regular, it will be Milwaukee after clinching, not a Diamondbacks club currently tied with the Mets and two games up on the Braves for the final two wild card spots in the NL.
Bets: Diamondbacks F5 Moneyline (-120 or better) | Diamondbacks Full-Game Moneyline (-110 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Nationals vs Cubs Predictions & Picks
Patrick Corbin (WSH) vs. Javier Assad (CHC)
Mere weeks ago, I was memorializing the final days of Patrick Corbin, who turned into a profitable fade (87-47, +10.9 units, 8.1% ROI betting against Corbin in every start since 2020) while racking up 21 more losses (70) than any other pitcher over the past five seasons.
Now? I feel Corbin will give the Red Sox – or some other fringe contender – effective innings in 2025.
Despite a 5.25 ERA—which came from two terrible starts)—Corbin has been otherwise effective in the second half (3.42 xFIP, 16.5% K-BB%), with five quality starts in 11 outings (while missing by one out and one run in another pair of starts).
Corbin has altered his pitch mix – putting away his four-seamer and sinker (combined 28.4% usage vs. 46.1% in the first half and 56.8% last season) while emphasizing his cutter (24.1% second half, 15.8% first half) – which he just started throwing this season- and slider – which has always been his best pitch.
Corbin has shown improved pitch modeling metrics in the second half (76 Stuff+, 103 Location+, 96 Pitching+, 3.78 botERA) compared to the first half (77 Stuff+, 100 Location+, 94 Pitching+, 4.36 botERA).
Ditching the fastballs and emphasizing a cutter is a strategy the Red Sox deployed this season. And I wouldn't be surprised to see Corbin end up with the pitching-needy Red Sox on a cheap deal – and drive his cutter/slider usage to even more extreme places in 2025.
Baseball player development is a fluid process – and skillsets are constantly evolving, even for a former All-Star in the final year of a $140m deal in his mid-thirties. The version of Patrick Corbin we've seen in the past six weeks is a much better pitcher than the replacement-level starter we've become accustomed to over the past five years.
I projected the Nationals at +137 for Thursday against a Cubs team nearly out of playoff contention (Chicago's elimination number is three games).
Bets: Nationals Full-Game Moneyline (+150 or better)
Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, September 19
- Arizona Diamondbacks F5 (+100, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to -120)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (-102, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -110)
- Atlanta Braves / Cincinnati Reds, Over 8 (-115, Risk 0.5u) at BetMGM (flat to 8.5, -110)
- Minnesota Twins / Cleveland Guardians, Over 8 (-105, Risk 0.5u) at BetMGM (pass after lineups)
- Minnesota Twins / Cleveland Guardians, Under 8 (-110, Risk 0.25u) at FanDuel (buying off part of Over 8)
- Philadelphia Phillies / New York Mets, Over 8 (-110, Risk 0.5u) at BetMGM (flat to -115)
- San Francisco Giants/ Baltimore Orioles, Under 7.5 (-105, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -120 or 7, +100)
- Toronto Blue Jays / TexasRangers, Under 8 (-110, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -113)
- Washington Nationals (+160, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +150)
