Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Thursday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Tuesday, September 3.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Odds & Previews for Tuesday
Sean Zerillo's MLB Nationals vs Marlins Prediction & Pick
Patrick Corbin (WSH) vs. Max Meyer (MIA)
Perhaps you can teach an old dog new tricks.
Patrick Corbin, who has ranked among the worst pitchers in baseball over the past four seasons (5.69 ERA, 263rd among 266 pitchers since 2021), has pitched exceptionally well in the second half, with a 15.3% K-BB% and a 3.54 xFIP across eight starts (8.1% K-BB%, 4.49 xFIP in the first half) while altering his pitch mix.
Corbin has continued to put away his four-seam fastball and sinker in the second half of the season (combined 36.5% usage rate), compared to the first half (combined 46.1% usage), where he had already dialed back his usage on both pitches relative to 2023 (combined 58.6% usage).
Instead, Corbin has opted for his new cutter (15.8% first half, 22.5% second half), the second-best pitch in his arsenal behind his slider (.330 and .286 xwOBA, respectively).
That second-half sample includes a pitiful effort against Arizona (13 hits, 11 runs in 3 innings) on August 5. But, if you exclude that start, Corbin has a 3.45 ERA in the remaining seven of his past eight outings.
Moreover, Corbin has flashed improved pitch modeling metrics (103 Location+, 97 Pitching+, 3.90 botERA) over that span (109, 94, 4.36 in the first half).
The Marlins current bullpen is likely underrated, too. Since their roster churn at the trading deadline, Miami's relievers have ranked 9th in MLB with a 3.90 xFIP and a 17% K-BB%.
The Nationals have the lesser bullpen (23rd and 24th by the same metrics since the deadline), and Max Meyer (4.95 xERA, 10.4% K-BB%, 98 Stuff+, 100 Pitching+, 4.76 botERA) has a ton of pedigree (former No. 3 overall pick), but he's been shaky at the MLB level.
Still, I projected Tuesday's total at 7.87 runs.
Bets: Under 8.5 (-115 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Twins vs Rays Best Bet
David Festa (MIN) vs. Jeffrey Springs (TBR)
The Tapa Bay Rays have a potentially loaded starting rotation for 2024, with a rehabbing Shane McClanahan set to join Shane Baz, Ryan Pepiot, Zack Littell, Taj Bradley, and recent IL returnees Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen.
Rasmussen (14 IP, 20.3% K-BB%, 127 Stuff+, 105 Pitching+, 2.97 botERA) has looked tremendous in short stints – none lasting more than two innings.
Springs (6 starts, 27 IP) is more stretched out and has looked highly effective 3.73 xERA, 20.3% K-BB%), particularly since his first couple of outings back in the majors.
Springs posted a 96 Pitching+ and 4.48 botERA in those first two starts, but his ratings have improved to 100 and 3.82 in his past two outings, and his command (28.9% K-BB% in his past four starts) has been elite.
I remain high on David Festa (4.12 xERA, 21.9% K-BB%, 103 Pitching+, 3.90 botERA) but view Springs as the slightly better arm.
Tampa Bay not only has a slightly better bullpen (4th vs. 7th in K-BB%, 4th vs. 5th in xFIP) since the trade deadline but also has a crucial rest advantage for Tuesday, as Minnesota's three best high-leverage relievers — Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Cole Sands — all worked consecutive days on Sunday and Monday. Duran and Jax have appeared in three of four games.
Bets: Rays Full-Game Moneyline (-125 or better)
Sean Zerillo's Pirates vs. Cubs MLB Best Bet
Paul Skenes (PIT) vs. Kyle Hendricks (CHC)
I have continually highlighted Paul Skenes' declining velocity as he approached and since surpassed a career-high in innings pitched (combined 136 1/3 between Triple-A and the majors this season vs. 129 1/3 between college and the minors in 2023).
Skenes' fastball averaged a season-low 97.7 mph on August 10, and he posted his second-lowest velocity (97.9 mph) in his next start on August 16. Still, the velocity has ticked upward (98.7 and 98.6 mph), in line with his season average (98.8 mph) in his past two outings.
The bounce is encouraging, but the overall trendline remains discouraging: through his first 10 MLB starts, Skenes' fastball averaged 99.2 mph – and he posted a 2.38 xFIP and 28.4% K-BB%. In eight starts since Skenes has averaged 98.3 mph on his fastball and posted a 3.06 xFIP and 23.3% K-BB%.
Moreover, despite the velocity boost, Skenes' pitch modeling metrics (93 Stuff+, 102 Pitching+, 4.43 botERA in his past two outings) have not bounced back to prior levels (110 Stuff+, 108 Pitching+, 2.99 botERA in the first half).
Chicago has the bullpen advantage (4th vs. 23rd in K-BB%, 7th vs. 27th in xFIP in the second half) and the better lineup (10th vs. 25th in second-half wRC+).
The teams are also playing with different expectations; the Cubs have been red-hot with a 19-9 record since August and are only 3.5 games out of a wild-card spot, while the Pirates (9-19 since August) have collapsed to 5th in the NL Central after sitting above .500 (56-54) on August 3.
Unfortunately, I bet this game before Chicago scratched Justin Steele for Kyle Hendricks; my projected line with Steele was -150, and I would have bet the game to -138. I lowered the projection to -111 and the price target to -103 with Hendricks in place of Steele, an adjustment of nearly 7.5%.
The pitching change also raised my projected total from 6.75 to 7.28, and I added the Over.
However, you can come back on the Under now that it has crossed through the key number of 7.
Bets: Cubs Full-Game Moneyline (-103 or better) | Over 6.5 (-120 or 7, -101 or better) | Under 7.5 (-105 or better)
Sean Zerillo's Diamondbacks vs. Giants MLB Prediction, Pick & Preview
Ryne Nelson (ARI) vs. Kyle Harrison (SFG)
Kyle Harrison remains my posterchild for pitcher home/road splits, with a career 3.24 ERA, 3.90 xFIP and 18.3% K-BB% at home at Oracle Park compared to a 5.23 ERA, 5.02 xFIP, and 11.1% K-BB% on the road.
Harrison allows a significantly higher flyball rate (48% vs. 39.7%) on the road than at home, and those away flyballs have left the yard at double the rate (16.8% vs. 7.9%) as they do in San Francisco, which has the lowest home run factor in MLB (-22%) over the past three seasons.
Harrison relies heavily on his four-seam fastball (58% usage rate) – and batters hit deep flyouts at Oracle Park that turn into homers elsewhere. Harrison seems aware of this; he pitches confidently at home, but his command worsens on the road.
Ryne Nelson (4.24 xERA, 14.3% K-BB%, 104 Pitching+, 3.74 botERA) is a pitcher I have bet on a bunch this season, and he is having a justifiable second-half breakout (2.90 ERA, 3.21 xFIP, 22.2% K-BB%).
However, I still modeled the Giants as slight home favorites (projected -116) for Tuesday's matchup, behind Harrison at home.
Bets: Giants Full-Game Moneyline (-108 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, September 3
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- Chicago Cubs (-126, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -103)
- Chicago Cubs / Pittsburgh Pirates, Over 6.5 (-115, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -120 or 7, -101)
- Chicago Cubs / Pittsburgh Pirates, Under 7.5 (-105, 0.5u) at Caesars (small to -105)
- Milwaukee Brewers F5 (-135, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (flat to -140)
- Parlay (+126, 0.5u) at FanDuel: Atlanta Braves F5 (-310) & Milwaukee Brewers F5 (-140); straight bets to -307 and -138 or parlay pieces to -333 and -147
- San Francisco Giants (+102, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -108)
- Seattle Mariners / Oakland Athletics, Over 7.5 (-115, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to 8, -107)
- Tampa Bay Rays (-108, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -125)
- Texas Rangers (+139, 0.5u; bet to +130)
- Washington Nationals / Miami Marlins, Under 8.5 (+100, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -115)
