Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Thursday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Wednesday, September 4.
MLB Predictions, Previews & Expert Picks for Wednesday
Sean Zerillo's MLB Phillies vs Blue Jays Predictions & Picks
Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) vs. Bowden Francis (TOR)
I highlighted a potential Bowden Francis breakout last week before the righty completed a dominant August (1.06 ERA, 3.07 xFIP, 30.2% K-BB%) with seven shutout innings against the Red Sox at Fenway, leading to AL Pitcher of the Month honors.
Francis has made a notable adjustment over his past five starts, putting away his curveball (6.1% usage, 27.8% through July) in favor of his splitter (27.5% usage, 13% through July) and slider (doubled from 6% to 12%).
Both the curveball and splitter rate well in Stuff+ models (Splitter 106, Curve 102), but the splitter has been dominant (.173 xBA, .236 xSLG, .184 xwOBA) while the curveball has gotten crushed (.277 xBA, .408 xSLG, .330 xwOBA).
His Stuff+ figure has decreased (from 101 to 94) without throwing the curve as frequently, but Francis has better command over his new mix – posting a 105 Location+ and 3.45 botERA in August, compared to marks of 99 and 3.90 over the season's first four months.
I'm also high on Cristopher Sanchez (3.63 xERA, 13.9% K-BB%, 105 Pitching+, 3.31 botERA), who has one of the highest groundball rates (58.7%) and lowest home run rates (0.47 HR/9; 0.89 career) in the majors.
Offensively, Toronto has performed much better against righties (118 wRC+, 5th) than lefties (97 wRC+, 24th) in the second half.
I projected Wednesday's total at 7.36 runs.
Bets: Under 8 (-115 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Red Sox vs Mets Best Bet
Tanner Houck (BOS) vs. Tylor Megill (NYM)
After a three-start stint in the minors to refine his command and pitch mix (17 1/3 IP, 14 H, 8 R, 5 BB, 21 K), Tylor Megill flashed elite command (108 Location+, 2.82 botERA) in his win over the White Sox.
Megill has the highest ceiling of any current Mets starter — with a big-time fastball (112 Stuff+), a nasty changeup (130 Stuff+), and an above-average slider (108) and splitter (100).
He has also posted encouraging results (19% K-BB% in 2021 and 2022). His strikeout rate (26.3%) aligns with those seasons after a disappointing 2023 (18.5%); still, Megill's walk rate (9.9%) is up more than three points compared to those seasons.
Whenever Megill gets into a groove, shoulder injuries seemingly derail his momentum — although he does look fully healthy now.
Tanner Houck — and the entire Red Sox pitching staff — is struggling in the second half, likely due to fatigue and the league catching up with their unique, avoid-the-fastball pitching usage.
Houck (164 2/3 IP) surpassed his previous career high in innings (106 last season) by the All-Star break – and there's been a noticeable dropoff in effectiveness (albeit at the same velocity level):
- First Half: 2.54 ERA, 3.18 xFIP, 18% K-BB%, 109 Stuff+, 103 Location+, 107 Pitching+, 3.25 botERA
- Second Half: 4.53 ERA, 4.73 xFIP, 5.2% K-BB%, 107 Stuff+, 95 Location+, 98 Pitching+, 4.24 botERA
Since the All-Star break, Houck's strikeout rate has been down nearly 10% (from 23.5% to 14.6%), and his walk rate has almost doubled (5.5% to 9.4%) compared to the first half.
Boston's bullpen has also bottomed out over the same span (30th in xFIP, 27th in K-BB%, 22nd in botERA).
What a total bullpen collapse looks like pic.twitter.com/tSfMt08oyN
— Red Sox Stats (@redsoxstats) September 2, 2024
Since acquiring Phil Maton (20 1/3 IP, 1.77 ERA, 3.32 xFIP, 22.1% K-BB%) on July 11, the Mets' bullpen ranks ninth in xFIP, ninth in K-BB%, and fifth in botERA.
A healthy Megill could significantly boost the Mets' wild card chase.
Bets: Mets Full-Game Moneyline (-125 or better)
Sean Zerillo's Cardinals vs Brewers MLB Preview
Sonny Gray (STL) vs. Colin Rea (MIL)
I'd typically give the Brewers (8th in xFIP, 8th in K-BB% in the second half) a projected bullpen edge over the Cardinals (21st and 23rd, respectively). Pitch modeling ratings see the groups more comparably — each ranking in the top ten by both Pitching+ and botERA.
Still, the projected gap should be even more substantial than usual on Wednesday after the Cardinals deployed Matthew Liberatore, Ryan Fernandez, and closer Ryan Helsley for multi-inning stints and used Andrew Kitterede for the third time in four days in Tuesday's win.
Typically, I'd project the gap between the bullpens around a quarter of a run on a season-long ERA. However, I would expand the differential to a half run for Wednesday, which is worth adjusting from -105 to -110, nearly one percent – hugely significant in a highly efficient market.
Since closer Devin Williams (2.84 xERA, 23.5% K-BB%, 135 Stuff+) returned in late July, Milwaukee's bullpen ranks third in xFIP (3.66), third by K-BB% (18.3%), seventh in Pitching+, and sixth in botERA.
Devin Williams, Unhittable Airbenders. 🛸 pic.twitter.com/b2M3Kb8y5Z
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 4, 2024
Sonny Gray (3.93 xERA, 24% K-BB%, 105 Pitching+, 3.13 botERA) provides a significant starting pitching edge over Colin Rea (4.95 xERA, 13.5% K-BB%, 97 Pitching+, 4.42 botERA).
Still, I strongly prefer the Brewers' position player group, both offensively (8th vs. 15th in second half wRC+) and defensively (3rd vs. 8th in Defensive Runs Saved; 4th vs. 6th in Outs Above Average).
Jackson Chourio has made a star turn in the second half (170 wRC+, .417 wOBA, .981 OPS) while cutting his strikeout rate by nearly 10% (23.3% to 13.9%) and looks like a potential X-Factor in October.
Bets: Brewers Full-Game Moneyline (+100 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, September 4
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Arizona Diamondbacks / San Francisco Giants, Over 7.5 (-105, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to -110)
- Cleveland Guardians (+125, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to +115)
- Cincinnati Reds (+125, 0.5u) at ESPNBet (bet to +114)
- Colorado Rockies (+240, 0.25u) at BetMGM (small to +220)
- Detroit Tigers (+180, 0.25u) at Caesars (small to +170)
- Detroit Tigers / San Diego Padres, Under 8 (-110, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -118 or 7.5, +100)
- Los Angeles Dodgers / Los Angeles Angels, Under 10 (+105, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -107)
- Milwaukee Brewers (+112, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to +100)
- Minnesota Twins / Tampa Bay Rays, Under 8.5 (-118, 0.5u) at DraftKings bet to 8, -105)
- New York Mets (-102, 0.75u) at FanDuel (bet to -125)
- New York Yankees (-110, 0.25u) at Bet365 (buying out halfway on Texas moneyline after lineups)
- Philadelphia Phillies / Toronto Blue Jays, Under 8 (-105, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -115)
- Pittsburgh Pirates / Chicago Cubs, Under 8 (-105, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -110)
- San Francisco Giants (+125, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to +115)
- Seattle Mariners / Oakland Athletics, Over 7.5 (+100, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -107)
- Texas Rangers (-102, 0.5u) at FanDuel (pass after lineups)
- Texas Rangers / New York Yankees, Over 8.5 (-115, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings (pass after lineups)
- Texas Rangers / New York Yankees, Under 8.5 (-105, 0.25u) at Caesars (buying out halfway on Over 8.5 after lineups)
- Washington Nationals F5 (-140, Risk 0.5u) at Caesars (flat to -140)
