The end of the work week is here, and what better way to bring in the weekend than with a stacked MLB slate?!
Every team is in action tonight, including a doubleheader between the Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds. Rhett Lowder's debut is here in Cincy!
We also get another NL East bout between the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies in this 16-game slate.
I'm here to give you as much information as possible regarding potential avenues for batting props for the upcoming Friday slate.
This article will have several parts. The first is the historical matchups between the projected starting pitcher and opposing hitters. I'll also break down the game where we expect the biggest boost in home runs because of the weather and end with a recap of which hitters have been the hottest over the last couple of weeks. I may also sprinkle some narratives, like birthdays, for fun.
Let's dive into my MLB betting preview for hitter props for Friday, August 30.
Charlie DiSturco's Top Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups
Nick Castellanos vs. Reynaldo Lopez (RHP): Castellanos has seen Lopez 38 times in his career and has won the battle despite not hitting a single home run. The righty has a .324 average and a 50% extra-base hit rate, all doubles.
Paul Goldschmidt vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP): Goldschmidt has clobbered Stroman in 30 plate appearances, hitting .407 with three home runs. He also has a pair of doubles against the right-hander.
Yandy Diaz vs. Martin Perez (LHP): It’s been a quiet season for Diaz, but he gets a great matchup on Friday against Perez. Diaz has seen the southpaw 29 times in his career, hitting .357 with one home run. His hits have mostly been singles, with a 30% extra-base hit rate.
Randall Grichuk vs. Clayton Kershaw (LHP): Grichuk has long been a lefty specialist, and facing Kershaw has been no different. He has a .280 average against Kershaw in 25 at-bats, with two home runs and a triple.
Marcus Semien vs. JP Sears (LHP): Sticking to the ‘fade a lefty’ trend, Semien has crushed Sears in 21 plate appearances. Semien has a .316 average and two home runs.
Austin Slater vs. Austin Gomber (LHP): Why not one more?! Slater has a .474 average against Gomber in 21 plate appearances. Yes, you read that right. He doesn’t have a home run, but he does have three doubles and a pair of triples.
Will Smith vs. Zac Gallen (RHP): Can Smith finally break out of his slump in a familiar matchup against Gallen? In 20 plate appearances, he has a .316 average with a double and a triple. He has not hit a home run off the right-hander.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. vs Erik Fedde (RHP): Chisholm has gotten the better of Fedde across 14 at-bats with two home runs and a .333 average. He has also walked twice.
MLB Hitting Preview: Today's Biggest WeatherEdge
While Minnesota leads today’s slate with a +33.5% expected increase in home runs, it’s based on a 43-game sample size. I’d rather focus on a game in a bad pitching matchup and nearly double the sample size. So, let’s head out to Cleveland!
Two heavy fly-ball pitchers take the mound on Friday, and both have struggled to limit hard hits all season long. The wind is blowing out to left center in 85-degree temperatures, culminating in a +25.5% expected increase in home runs. That’s through an 84-game sample.
Let’s start with the ever-so-familiar Bailey Falter. The southpaw has been extremely lucky to play in such a big ballpark like PNC, to say the least. He doesn’t strike out batters and struggles to limit barrels (9.5%). He also ranks in the bottom 10% in both xBA and xERA.
One of the last times I broke down an expected home run boost came in the Bronx, where the Guardians drew a lefty (Nestor Cortes). We’re going to run it right back despite Cortes’ strong start. Because, well, Falter is not good.
We start with Big Christmas, Jhonkensy Noel. If you haven’t seen this dude swing, you must make time tonight. The gigantic outfielder has crushed southpaws in his limited time in the majors, hitting seven home runs across 48 plate appearances. He has a 219 wRC+ and a .833 slugging percentage thus far.
That's probably not sustainable, but the elite bat speed and 18.8% barrel rate push the narrative of Noel being boom or bust. He strikes out a lot, sure. But he also swings for the fences — and we want that against Falter, who struggles with whiffs.
Of course, we can’t have a piece without mentioning Jose Ramirez, who has led the team in wRC+ (194) all season long against southpaws. Ramirez has 12 home runs — a team-best — against lefties and just a 10.5 strikeout rate to show for it.
Opposite Falter will be Ben Lively, who has taken a step forward this season. His biggest issue is the inability to generate chases (24.4%) and whiffs (18.6%), which rank in the bottom 10% of all pitchers.
Lively does have some issues with hard hits — 41.7%, just .03 off his career-worst — but he’s been able to mitigate barrels (6.5%) and shore up his xBA (.238), thanks to increased use of a sinker. He is due for some negative regression, though, riding a .254 BABIP and 82% strand rate.
Lively struggles with the long ball (1.49 HR/9) and has allowed 2+ home runs in four of his last nine starts (44%). After two homerless outings, now is the time to sell the right-hander thanks to plus-hitting conditions.
Bryan Reynolds has been the definition of consistent this season and is starting to heat up at the plate. Over the last week, he has had two home runs and a .888 OPS. He is also the team’s No. 1 hitter against right-handed pitching (131 wRC+).
Can the homerless drought end for Oneil Cruz? Despite hitting .384 in August, he has just one home run to show for — that came back on August 9. In the last 30 days, he has just one home run despite ranking in the top 3% of all hitters in both barrels (16.7%) and hard-hit rate (54.7%).
Cruz is second on the team in wRC+ (128) against right-handed pitching and has 13 home runs in 115 games this season. While he remains a high-strikeout bat, his form suggests that it’s only a matter of time before he crushes one into the bleachers.
His rolling fly-ball rate at FanGraphs also shows an uptick in balls hit in the air after a steep fall over the past 30 days.
- Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.
MLB Player Prop Preview: Who’s Hot?
A new No. 1 on the rolling xwOBA leaderboard, and it’s the perfect ‘who the hell is that guy?’
Meet Addison Barger, a lefty who has finally started to heat up at the plate. Over the last 15 days, Barger is hitting .267 with three home runs. But the last week has sent him soaring up this leaderboard. He has a .375 average and a 1.116 OPS.
Barger has had a hit in seven straight games and 8-of-10. I mentioned that Minnesota has a +33.5% expected increase in HRs tonight, but Barger gets a tough matchup vs. Pablo Lopez. I would shy away — but don’t blame you if you want to continue to attack while Barger is hot.
Brenton Doyle is back and has been seeing mailboxes for baseballs for the past couple of weeks.
Cue the Benchwarmers music with Reggie Jackson
Doyle has a .350 average and over 1.000 OPS in the last 15 days. He has a pair of home runs and a 36% extra-base hit rate. He gets a friendly matchup with a fly-ball pitcher, Albert Suarez, in Coors Field. Suarez has done a nice job limiting damage this season but showed some cracks last time — 2 HRs vs. Astros.
Lastly, let’s talk about new entrant Brandon Nimmo. It’s been an abysmal second half of the season for the lefty, hitting .186 with a .578 OPS. So why should you buy him?
He’s finally turning a corner and hitting the ball hard! Over the last 15 days, Nimmo is hitting .279 with a pair of home runs. The power has been limited, but even in the last week, Nimmo has a .316 average.
On Friday in Chicago, he gets a friendly environment with the wind blowing out. Jonathan Cannon takes the mound, and he has struggled lately. He has allowed a home run in five of his last six starts.
- Check out our MLB Props page
Birthdays?!
Jose Caballero: Just one birthday this Friday, and it’s not pretty. Caballero does get a plus matchup against Martin Perez, but the middle infielder has just a .227 average and nine home runs to show for it. He is better against southpaws (.230 average, .708 OPS), though he’s ice cold of late (.132 average in the last 15 days). Back the birthday narrative at your own risk.
