After taking two out of three from the Yankees in the Bronx, the Braves continue their road trip in St. Louis against the Cardinals.
The Braves have won eight of their last 10 games, but they'll meet their match in the Cardinals, who have won seven of their last 10 and are coming off a sweep of the Giants.
With both teams playing well coming in, it's reasonable to expect a fairly high-scoring game, particularly with the pitching matchup of Spencer Schwellenbach vs. Lance Lynn.
With that in mind, here's my three-leg same-game parlay for tonight's game, beginning with the top of the Braves' lineup.
- Jarred Kelenic to Score a Run (-125)
- Ozzie Albies to Record an RBI (+165)
- Alec Burleson to Record 2+ Total Bases (-125)
- Parlay Odds: +595 via FanDuel
Jarred Kelenic
To Score a Run (-125)
After platooning to begin the year, Jarred Kelenic moved into the Braves' starting lineup on a regular basis following the season-ending ACL injury to Ronald Acuna Jr.
Replacing the reigning NL MVP is hard enough positionally, but the Braves have also asked Kelenic to replace Acuna's spot at the top of the lineup following the hamstring injury to Michael Harris II., which also landed him on the IL.
Since becoming the Braves' primary leadoff hitter on June 15, Kelenic has hit safely in eight straight games while hitting .324 with a .999 OPS. He has done so well that it's a move that some feel may save the Braves' season.
Since Kelenic's move, the Braves are averaging five runs per game. Kelenic has accounted for five of those runs, scoring at least once in five of his last eight games.
He has driven himself in with a home run three times in that span, and he'll have the opportunity to go deep again tonight. Cardinals right-hander Lance Lynn is allowing left-handed batters to hit .279 with a .807 OPS against him. Six of the nine homers he has allowed this season have come against left-handed batters, and he has also given up nine doubles to lefties.
Even without a home run tonight, Kelenic will have a good chance to score if he can get himself into scoring position.
Ozzie Albies has driven him in eight times already. Additionally, Marcell Ozuna ranks third in MLB in RBIs this season, while Matt Olson is the reigning MLB RBI leader.
Ozzie Albies
To Record an RBI (+165)
Speaking of Albies, he enters today game with an RBI in seven of his last 10 games. He's typically more potent against left-handed pitchers, with a .346 season average this season. However, 27 of his 38 RBI this season have come against right-handers.
He's also 1-for-2 with a triple lifetime against Lynn.
An extra-base hit will give Albies a chance to drive in a run tonight. He may even cash two legs of our parlay in the process, which was the case on Friday night when Kelenic singled on the first pitch of the game against the Yankees. Albies followed that up with a two-run homer to give the Braves a quick 2-0 lead.
Though the switch-hitting Albies himself has done better batting right-handed, he will stand to benefit from Lynn's struggles against left-handed hitters. He could also drive in a run later in the game when the Cardinals bring in a lefty, presumably John King or JoJo Romero.
Alec Burleson
To Record 2+ Total Bases (-125)
Cardinals outfielder Alec Burleson has been one of MLB's hottest hitters of late. Over the last week, he has hit .429 with a 1.335 OPS, recording two hits (+160) in four of his last five games while hitting three home runs.
Of course, that also means he has had at least two total bases in those four games. He's now averaging 3.6 per game in that span.
The left-handed Burleson is hitting .316 with nine of his 12 home runs coming against right-handed pitching this season. He has yet to face Schwellenbach, as this is just the fifth start for the right-hander.
However, Schwellenbach is allowing an .804 OPS to left-handed hitters. Nine of the 12 hits left-handed batters have gotten off him have gone for extra bases, including six doubles.
Additionally, he has allowed eight earned runs in 10 2/3 innings in his two road starts.
Burleson is also hitting .341 at night and .348 at home. That means a night home game at Busch Stadium should give him an excellent chance to remain hot and cash the third leg of our parlay.
