Padres vs Nationals Odds, Pick & Prop Prediction (6/25)
| San Diego Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+105 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +1.5 -165 |
| Washington Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-125 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -1.5 +140 |
The Padres stretched their wild-card lead to 1.5 games with a thrilling four-run 10th inning in last night's series opening matchup.
San Diego was a huge favorite versus Patrick Corbin on Monday, but is a slight underdog Tuesday in a matchup pitting MacKenzie Gore (3.49 ERA, 80 and 1/3 IP) against Adam Mazur (7.27 ERA, 17 and 1/3 IP).
San Diego Padres
The Padres' strong offensive process was well displayed in the series opener, as they hit to an xBA of .301, struck out just seven times and finally broke through with a four-run 10th inning.
The Padres 85% in-zone contact rate this season ranks second in baseball, while their out-of-zone contact rate ranks first (62%). Their 48.7% chase rate is the lowest mark in MLB.
Over the past 30 days, the Padres own a 122 wRC+. They own the leagues lowest strikeout rate in that span by a wide margin (15.7%) and also have a BB/K of 0.45.
Their offensive upside obviously takes a hit with Fernando Tatis Jr. sidelined, but the Padres still provide a tougher-than-average matchup for a left-handed starter.
Mazar has pitched to a 5.25 xERA and a 6.56 xFIP throughout his first four starts of the season. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 97, and a Location+ rating of 94.
Washington Nationals
Gore's excellent form this season has been a key reason for the Nationals surprising 38-40 record. The 25-year-old lefty owns a 3.74 xERA and a 3.27 xFIP. His stuff rates out very well as he holds a 114 Stuff+ rating, including a 131 rating on his fastball. He also owns a 100 Location+ rating.
Over his past five starts, Gore has allowed a .264 xBA with a 29% K-rate.
The Nationals' offense will look to do damage versus an unproven righty in Mazur. Washington has hit to a wRC+ of 99 versus right-handed pitching over the past 30 days. The Nationals have done a good job of avoiding strikeouts all season against right handers and that has held true lately as they hold a K-rate of just 18.7% over the past 30 days.
Padres vs. Nationals
Betting Pick & Prediction
This looks like a good spot to sell high on Gore in the strikeout market. Though Gore has gone well over 5.5 strikeouts in five of his past six starts, he's in a tough spot here versus a Padres team that boasts elite plate discipline versus left-handed pitching.
At +105 there is value betting Gore to go Under 5.5 strikeouts in this matchup, and I'd play anything better than +100.
Pick: MacKenzie Gore Under 5.5 Strikeouts +105 (Bet365, Play to +100)
