The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves will face off on Wednesday night in the second game of a three-game set. Tuesday night’s game between these two saw the Braves win 3-1 at Truist Park.
Philadelphia (73-52) still holds a six-game lead over Atlanta (67-58) in the National League East race. The Braves were able to extend their lead for the final wild-card spot to 2.5 games. Let's get to my Phillies vs Braves prediction for Wednesday night, where I'm eyeing a team total in the first five innings.
Phillies vs Braves Prediction
- Phillies F5 Over 1.5 Runs (Bet to -160)
These two teams are largely viewed as equals, as evidenced by the moneyline tonight being -112/-104 in slight favor of the Braves. The over/under for this game is set at eight runs (-110/-110), as two quality starting pitchers will be taking the mound tonight. MY Phillies vs Braves pick is on the Phillies over 1.5 runs in the first 5 innings.
Phillies vs Braves Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +152 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -104 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -184 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -112 |
Phillies vs Braves Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Aaron Nola (PHI) | Stat | LHP Max Fried (ATL) |
|---|---|---|
| 11-6 | W-L | 7-7 |
| 2.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.1 |
| 3.45 / 3.88 | ERA /xERA | 3.62 / 3.77 |
| 3.99 / 3.62 | FIP / xFIP | 3.54 / 3.47 |
| 1.16 | WHIP | 1.25 |
| 16.5% | K-BB% | 13.8% |
| 43.9% | GB% | 57.9% |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 105 | Location+ | 98 |
Cody Goggin’s Phillies vs Braves Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Aaron Nola Having Strong Season
Aaron Nola will take the mound for Philadelphia tonight. The veteran right-hander has had a strong year, posting a 3.45 ERA and a 3.88 xERA over 154 innings pitched. Nola has a 35th percentile whiff rate and 50th percentile strikeout rate, which isn’t particularly impressive. However, Nola has done a good job of avoiding walks, ranking in the 78th percentile in walk rate.
Nola ranks in the 51st percentile in barrel rate, 64th percentile in hard hit rate, and 51st percentile in average exit velocity. He is also 57th percentile in ground ball rate this season, as he has generated grounders 43.8% of the time. Overall, Nola has been just a bit above average by most metrics.
The Phillies have been a borderline top 10 unit this season. They rank 10th in wRC+, seventh in wOBA, seventh in SLG and 10th in ISO. They strikeout at a below average rate and walk at the eighth-highest rate.
Philadelphia doesn’t hit the ball extremely hard, ranking 10th in hard hit rate, 18th in barrel rate and 16th in exit velocity. They also hit the ninth-highest rate of ground balls, which may come into play against their opponent tonight.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview: Bats Need More Discipline
Max Fried has a 3.62 ERA this season with a 3.77 xERA. He hasn’t been overly impressive in terms of strikeout rate, as he is in the 50th percentile in strikeout rate and 43rd percentile in whiff rate. He is also in the 36th percentile in walk rate, as he walks a few more batters than you would want.
Where Fried excels, though, is at allowing a low amount of quality contact and inducing ground balls. Fried ranks in the 95th percentile in ground ball rate, 88th percentile in hard hit rate, 88th percentile in barrel rate and 97th percentile in average exit velocity. Typically, these high ground ball rate pitchers struggle with allowing hard contact, but Fried has been great in both of those facets.
The Braves rank 17th in wRC+ and 13th in wOBA this season. They have the seventh-highest strikeout rate and rank 19th in walk rate. This isn’t the most disciplined team at the plate, but they do hit the ball extremely hard.
Atlanta ranks second in hard hit rate, second in barrel rate and first in exit velocity. They also have the seventh-lowest ground ball rate in the league and 10th-highest fly ball rate, as they put the ball in the air and pull the ball more than anyone else.
Phillies vs Braves Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Phillies’ offensive numbers don’t instill a ton of confidence, and I wanted to back Max Fried in this game. However, I then took a look at the platoon splits and was reminded that the Phillies are the best team in the league in wRC+ and wOBA against left-handed pitching.
The Braves hit the ball extremely hard but also lack plate discipline, which hurts their overall production. Nola has been okay in terms of not allowing hard contact and doesn’t walk batters, so I think he could turn in a quality start tonight.
I think Fried has been better than Nola this season, but Philadelphia’s offense has destroyed left-handed pitching and I want to back the Phillies on this trend. My best bet for this game is the Phillies to score over 1.5 runs in the first five innings at -154, and I would take this to -160.
Phillies vs Braves Pick: Phillies F5 Over 1.5 Runs (-154 at DraftKings, bet to -160)
Moneyline
This should be a tightly contested matchup. I don’t have a preference on either side in this game overall, as both teams have capable offenses and both starting pitchers are above average. Despite the Phillies’ prowess against left-handers, it’s just as likely that Fried could shut them down. For that reason, I don’t have a strong lean on either team to win this game.
Run Line (Spread)
The Braves are just 24-35 ATS at home this year, while the Phillies are 28-32 ATS on the road.
I feel the same about the run line as I do about the moneyline. Neither one of these teams shows glaring value to me on a side in this matchup, and I would prefer to stay away.
Over/Under
Unders are 36-20-3 at Truist Park this season, including a win in the 3-1 battle between these two teams on Tuesday night.
I personally also wouldn’t recommend taking the full game total. I would lean partially towards the under, as these are two good starting pitchers, but the Phillies’ offense versus Fried is still largely unknown as to how that will play out.
Phillies vs Braves Betting Trends
PHILLIES:
- Phillies are 3-2 in their last 5 games
- Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Phillies are 28-32 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Phillies' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 29 of Phillies' 65 last games at home
BRAVES:
- Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 games
- Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Braves are 30-36 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Braves' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 20 of Braves' 59 last games at home
