The Philadelphia Phillies appeared to be losing their grip on the National League East a month ago, but as we enter one of the season's final weeks they've now won five of the past six and sit nine clear in first place. Let's get into my Phillies vs Brewers prediction for the series opener on Monday, September 16.
The job's not finished, however, and a potential playoff preview beckons Monday when they travel to Milwaukee to face the soon-to-be NL Central champion Brewers at American Family Field.
Will Aaron Civale continue his run of competence against one of the league's hottest offenses, or will Ranger Suarez find some much-needed form to close out the year?
Phillies-Brewers Predictions
- Phillies-Brewers picks: Under 8 (+100 | Play to -115)
My Phillies vs Brewers best bet is on Under 8, where I see value at +100. The best line is available at BetMGM, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Brewers Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-120 | 8.5 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +140 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+100 | 8.5 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -165 |
Phillies vs Brewers Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Ranger Suarez (PHI) | Stat | RHP Aaron Civale (MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 12-6 | W-L | 6-8 |
| 3.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 3.05/3.38 | ERA /xERA | 4.57/4.10 |
| 3.09/3.17 | FIP / xFIP | 4.70/4.32 |
| 1.13 | WHIP | 1.32 |
| 17.8% | K-BB% | 14.2% |
| 52.9% | GB% | 35.6% |
| 82 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 104 | Location+ | 100 |
Kenny Ducey’s Phillies vs Brewers Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Suárez Needs To Bounce Back In Big Way
As we approach the postseason, there will be several questions to be answered in the Phillies rotation. As teams whittle things down and select three starters, moving the back-end of the group to the bullpen, we sometimes see some miniature position battles take place down the stretch.
Ranger Suarez has been a very important piece of the Phillies' pitching plan in the playoffs, but right now he's looking like a hard man to trust. He's coming off his worst start of the season, surrendering four runs on 12 hits and two walks over 5 1/3 against the Rays, and in four starts back from injury he's now recorded a 4.19 ERA with a troubling 30 runners reaching base in 19 1/3 innings.
In that span, he's pitched to an alarming .274 Expected Batting Average, but the good news is not only that it's been 34 points lower than the actual average of his opponents but it's come along with a tidy-enough .393 Expected Slugging which is also significantly lower than the real results against him with hitters slugging .474 off Suarez.
The left-hander seems to be shaking off the rust and getting some bad luck on batted balls, which can happen with a contact-oriented arm. If he can see some positive regression here, this lineup should take this game and run with it.
The Phillies are third in wRC+ over the last two weeks, sporting a swollen .205 Isolated Power and an improved 20.8% strikeout rate. They're still swinging at everything, however, with a low walk rate — but the damage they've been able to do has proven this strategy to be a good one. Best of all, the power has come in spite of a very high 44.8% ground-ball rate over this stretch.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview: Time for Offense To Take It Up A Notch
Civale's very similar to Suarez with his affinity for pitching to contact, but he's failed to produce friendly contact with the same consistency that we've seen out of his counterpart here.
The righty's .250 xBA and .409 xSLG make him arguably the most league-average arm in baseball, and the fly-ball approach he's taken has worked out decently well as more and more pitchers begin tailoring their arsenal that way. The Brewers own the fourth-best defense in the league by Outs Above Average, with their outfield ranking second, and with extra-base hits at a huge premium in Milwaukee this has led him to palatable results.
Civale finished off August with a 3.29 ERA in five starts, and while his 4.35 ERA in two outings this month hasn't been the shiniest number in the world he's at least held opponents to one runner per inning on average. He'll also be pitching at home here, where he's recorded a 3.30 ERA in 15 starts.
There's certainly some reason to believe in Civale here, but this offense continues to look incredibly pedestrian. Yes, the Brewers rank ninth in wRC+ over the last two weeks, but it's a number that's been largely driven by the Three True Outcomes. They're walking at a 10.4% clip with a .195 ISO — both top-five marks over this span — with the ninth-worst strikeout rate at 23.8%. As a result, Milwaukee has hit just .220 but owns a much more reasonable .716 OPS.
Phillies vs Brewers Prediction, Betting Analysis
Civale's ability to pitch to his defense's strengths has been evident this year, and at home where hits to the outfield are home run-or-bust he's been an effective hurler. That has me excited to back him on Monday against a Phillies team that has been socking the ball of late, but relying heavily upon its power.
We know the ball will be coming back into play against both pitchers, and while it should work out well for Civale against an offense that's swung the bat plenty, it should work just as well for Suarez against a team which has been all-too-reliant on walks around its power hitters.
Suarez may be going through a rough patch, but his expected numbers have come in under his real-life results and he's been more liable to give up singles rather than extra bases. With his ability to limit walks and lean on a fellow top-10 defense by OAA, both offenses should hit a snag here.
I know many aren't exactly lining up to bet the under here in a game pitched by two highly-volatile starters in the last month, particularly with two good offenses involved, but the conditions here are right.
Pick: Under 8 (+100)
Moneyline
We've tracked some sharp action hitting the Phillies here, while big money is on the Brewers, so as you might guess this line has seen little movement since opening near a pick 'em.
Run Line (Spread)
The Brewers have covered the run line in 66.7% of their 66 games as underdogs by an average margin of +2.1, while Philly has hit the run line just twice in their last eight games.
Over/Under
The under has now cashed in seven of Milwaukee's last 10 games, though when it's played as a home underdog the over has gone 13-6-2. We've tracked sharp action hitting the under, and some of my fellow Action experts are eyeing that bet as well.
Phillies-Brewers Betting Trends
- 68% of the bets and 13% of the money are on the Phillies on the moneyline.
- 70% of the bets and 68% of the money are on the over.
- 99% of the bets and 79% of the money are on the Phillies to cover the run line.
Phillies Betting Trends
- Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
- Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Phillies are 33-38 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Phillies' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 34 of Phillies' 78 last games at home
Brewers Betting Trends
- Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Brewers are 41-37 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Brewers' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 37 of Brewers' 71 last games at home
