The Philadelphia Phillies scratched and clawed their way to victory Wednesday night and now find themselves in position to win a series in Atlanta. The Braves had a chance to make things interesting in the ninth last night but failed to capitalize after the first two hitters reached base.
Tonight, the Braves send Spencer Schwellenbach to the mound, where he'll be opposed by Phils southpaw Christopher Sanchez. Oddsmakers make both teams roughly -110 on the moneyline, with the total sitting at 8.
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-104 | 8 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +158 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-112 | 8 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -192 |
I crafted the following three-leg SGP for tonight's action that pays out 5-1 on your investment:
John Feltman's Phillies vs Braves MLB Parlay Picks for Thursday
- Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100)
- Christopher Sanchez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-132)
- First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-130)
Parlay Odds: +521 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Atlanta Braves Parlay Picks: Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100)
I continue to target Ozuna in these SGPs, and it's worked out handsomely. Here is another great opportunity to target an underpriced line.
Ozuna has completely torched left-handed pitching in 2024 and tonight faces Christopher Sanchez, who has struggled to generate whiffs from the opposition. Sanchez features a predominantly three-pitch mix, mostly throwing sinkers, sliders and change-ups.
Ozuna has crushed the sinker all year, sporting a remarkable 62.5% hard-hit rate. He also has a .330 xBA, .624 xSLG and .444 xWOBA against the pitch.
His numbers are nearly as high against the change-up, but his numbers dip a bit against the slider. While I say dip, he still possesses a .299 xBA and .719 xSLG.
Long story short, he's crushed it against left-handers all season long, especially sinker-ballers. The reason for the misprice is probably due to the game total being juiced to the under, but that is not enough to scare me off.
Philadelphia Phillies Parlay Picks: Christopher Sanchez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-132)
Sanchez is one of the most fascinating cases of 2024, and this fascination pertains to his strikeout ability. Here are Sanchez's strikeout results in the last 6-starts: 4,4,2,7,2,2
As you can see, there has only been one game where he has eclipsed five strikeouts, but I am more than happy to buy low here. Taking a look at his metrics, Sanchez ranks in the 99th percentile in chase rate. Not only that, he ranks above the 80th percentile in the following categories: Average Exit Velo, BB%, GB%, Hard-Hit Rate, and Barrel Rate.
Those stats do not necessarily correlate with strikeouts, but it's clear to me that Sanchez is undervalued in the market. The Braves are bottom-five in K-Rate, and that number has climbed since Jorge Soler and Ramon Laureano became staples in their lineup as of late.
One hundred and eight strikeouts in 125 innings is a hard sell, but due to his excellent chase rate, I have a strong hunch that Sanchez will eclipse his strikeout total tonight. He's one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball and he'll continue to showcase that moving forward.
Phillies vs Braves MLB Parlay Picks: First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-130)
We've got a terrific pitching matchup tonight between Schwellenbach and Sanchez. Schwellenbach has one career start against the Phillies, throwing six strong innings with half a dozen punchouts.
Meanwhile, Sanchez's numbers versus the Braves are excellent, as they are batting .129 over 31 plate appearances against him. Both offenses have not shown much in the series thus far, and I expect that trend to continue.
Schwellenbach has excellent metrics and should escape some trouble as long as he keeps the ball inside of the park. Atlanta's offense is also a complete shell of itself without Austin Riley and Ronald Acuna, which is even more of a reason to like the matchup for Sanchez.
Despite liking the matchup for Ozuna, he will not be able to carry the total over by himself. Both starting pitchers should thrive tonight, giving me reason to believe the total should stay under 4.5 in the first five innings.
