Two of the best pitchers in the National League face off on Saturday — rookie phenom Paul Skenes from the Pittsburgh Pirates and southpaw Max Fried from the Atlanta Braves. So, it’s a perfect time to put together another Pirates vs Braves MLB parlay centered around Skenes.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Pirates vs Braves MLB Parlay: Saturday SGP Picks
- Pirates Moneyline (+138)
- Under 0.5 first inning runs (-138)
- Paul Skenes 8+ strikeouts (-106)
Parlay Odds: +477 (FanDuel)
I’m all in on the Skenes machine. The rookie phenom is 4-0 with a 2.14 ERA and 2.51 FIP. Additionally, he posseses an electric 99-102 mph fastball that leads to his 11.8 K/9.
The Pirates are 6-2 in Skenes’s eight starts — one of the two losses coming in extra innings. On paper, the Braves roster is better — that’s undeniable. However, catching plus-money in a Skenes start is probably something that won’t happen often.
The hometown Braves lost three of four games — including one as -280 ML favorites in a makeup game against the White Sox. One of the main culprits for the inconsistency is lack of hitting from their big hitters in a lineup that's already down two injured starters in Ronald Acuna Jr. and Michael Harris II.
Atlanta looks susceptible to an elite pitcher dominating them. In the past seven games, Marcell Ozuna, Matt Olson and Ozzie Albies each have hit below .200 in the past seven games. In Ozuna's defense, he carried the Braves offense early, but now he’s slumping. Facing the pitcher when the nastiest stuff in baseball isn’t an ideal slump buster.
Backing this porous Pirates lineup is a tough call for me. They have an 86 wRC+, ranking bottom-seven in MLB. Outside of Bryan Reynolds and occasional solid play from O’Neil Cruz — who’s largely useless against lefties, there isn’t much to get excited about.
I think the Pirates can keep the game close enough though — potentially scrapping a run or two off Fried to give Skenes enough run support.
The only leg of my White Sox/Dodgers SGP that didn’t hit was NRFI. So, why not have a little change in luck today?
Since April 12th (which excludes Fried’s first two starts where he got crushed), he’s allowed a first inning run just one time in 13 starts. He doesn’t allow a ton of runs in general, but especially in first innings. It takes opposing offenses seeing him a time or two before feeling comfortable against his sinker/curveball combination.
Skenes didn’t allow a first inning run in his first six career starts — but allowed one in his past two. I think he’ll revert back to his first six starts by shutting down the opposition in the first inning.
You can add NRFI to the parlay for -138, which seems like decent value since it’s a matchup featuring two dominant pitchers.
If you take a peek at Skenes’ baseball savant page, you’ll see a common trend: it’s very, very red, which is an outstanding thing in this case. Skenes ranks in the 78th percentile in Chase %, 85th in whiff %, 95th in K% and 93rd in BB%.
So, not only is Skenes a strikeout machine, but he’s pitch efficient. Limiting walks will allow him to get deeper into the game, thus having more chances for strikeouts.
Skenes punched out eight batters in five of his eight career starts and he faces a strikeout heavy lineup — the Braves punch out the 11th most in MLB.
