Dylan Cease has been just what the San Diego Padres would have hoped for when they traded for him before the season. He has struggled with keeping the ball on the ground, but he has improved his walk rate, Average Exit Velocity and strikeout rate.
His opponent will be the Pittsburgh Pirates — who have had trouble with righties as of late. On top of that, the Bucs will be sending out Bailey Falter, a left-hander who has awful peripherals.
Since the Padres have slugged the ball against southpaws, they should put up runs consistently on the road in this one.
Below is my Padres vs Pirates prediction for tonight's game at PNC Park.
Padres vs Pirates Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 8 -110o / -110u | -178 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 8 -110o / -110u | +150 |
Padres vs Pirates Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Dylan Cease (SDP) | Stat | LHP Bailey Falter (PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 11-8 | W-L | 5-7 |
| 3.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 3.42/3.15 | ERA /xERA | 3.95/4.99 |
| 3.04/3.16 | FIP / xFIP | 4.47/4.70 |
| 0.99 | WHIP | 1.19 |
| 24.3% | K-BB% | 9.3% |
| 38.1% | GB% | 34.8% |
| 123 | Stuff+ | 89 |
| 101 | Location+ | 100 |
D.J. James Makes His Padres vs Pirates Prediction
Red-Hot Cease Starts for Padres
Cease enters tonight's start at PNC Park with a 3.42 ERA with a 3.15 xERA this season for San Diego. His Average Exit Velocity is 88.4 MPH with an above average Hard-Hit Rate. His Barrel Rate is lacking, but moving to San Diego has helped him throw strikes more often, which was a glaring issue while playing for the White Sox. Cease’s strikeout rate is exceptional at 32.3% with an above average chase rate. Since the Bucs have performed poorly against righties lately, San Diego's recent ace can keep them in check.
San Diego has clubbed lefties all season. Since July 6, they have a 123 wRC+ with an 8.7% walk rate and 17.9% strikeout rate. The Friars have six bats eclipsing a .340 xwOBA with a couple others just below .320, so basically, their entire lineup is deep and can hit lefties. They should do so in a weaker-than-average matchup with Bailey Falter.
The Padres have a good back-end of the bullpen, especially. In the last month, the Friar relief corps owns a 3.53 xFIP with a strikeout rate at 27% and walk rate under 7%. San Diego has several options to go to when Cease exits, but if he does not walk many, he can throw into the seventh with how the Bucs have fared against righties.
Pirates Hope Falter Can Keep Up With Cease
Falter has been getting fine results with a sub-4.00 ERA, but his 4.99 xERA tells a different story. He has a 90 MPH Average Exit Velocity with a below average Hard-Hit Rate and ground-ball rate. At least Cease rarely allows contact because Falter is striking out less than 17% of batters, while not getting many to chase, either. Since his walk rate is nothing great, the Padres should have a field day at the plate.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have an 88 wRC+ off of righties in the last month. Most of the damage is coming from the top of the order because they only have four active bats above a .320 xwOBA with those same parameters in place. San Diego’s lineup is so much deeper, and Falter is not the guy to contend with Dylan Cease’s arsenal. New acquisition Bryan de la Cruz was added to bolster the lineup at the deadline.
In relief, the Pirates own a 3.93 xFIP in the last month, but their strikeout rate is only a touch above 22%, while they are walking more than 9%. They have a few options to throw, after Falter exits. However, since he has not had the best command and could allow hard contact consistently throughout this game, the Pirates could likely end up throwing the bullpen much earlier than anticipated. The negative regression could start in this one.
Padres vs Pirates Prediction, Betting Analysis
Cease should come out of this game victorious and should be able to throw pretty deep into the ballgame. The Padres have the artillery in relief and have the more potent lineup to put up runs early and often. Even though they're on the road, they should still do some damage. Take San Diego in this one to win on the moneyline with the juice from -162 to -185.
Pick: San Diego Padres ML (-162 | Play to -185) |
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Moneyline
San Diego Padres -162 – PLAY
Run Line (Spread)
San Diego Padres -1.5 – PASS
Over/Under
8 – PASS
